Felix Jones: Boom or Bust in 09'

[ExperiencedRookie]

I love Jones...but he is a 3rd down, change of pace back. In Dallas he will get his chances...but if you are not in ppr....his value is useless to you as it will once again be the Barber show...and if Barber gets hurt...the Choice show.

To say that Felix is useless is pretty strong. In the only 5 games of his pro career, he had some pretty strong outings for a 3rd down back.

9 carries, 62 Yds, TD 0 rec.
6 carries, 76 Yds, TD 1 rec 7 yds
9 carries, 96 yds, TD 1 rec 3 yds

Those look like some pretty useful fantasy numbers to me.

His numbers don't really suggest that he is a 3rd down back. If he was, I would think he would have a few more receptions than 2 in 5 games.

This is probably all good info for another thread though..

 

[The Ram]

I agree, ER. Discussion on Felix's potential for 2009 deserves a thread all to itself.


So here are the questions at hand:

1) Did you see enough from Felix Jones last season to invest a pick in him this year? 1.a) Where would you take Felix in redraft & dynasty?

2) Does his situation in Dallas make you pause?



So lets see some discussion Outlaws. You all are kicking ass in the Mendenhall thread so lets keep it going.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Thanks for getting that going Ram.

As you guys can already see, I'm a believer in Felix, and why not??

I see Dallas running the ball A LOT this year.

Felix has already shown what he can do with a limited amount of carries. Can you imagine what will happen if he gets 12-15?

Running behind Barber is also more of a blessing than a curse. Barber goes out and punishes the defense on 1st and 2nd down, and then Felix gets to play Barber's old role.

Oh, and forget about Tashard Choice. He only saw the field because of injuries. Jerry Jones has a man crush, and his name is cousin Felix.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

It depends on what you are expecting from Jones this year.

There will be a few weeks he will outperform Barber who will remain the starter but can you predict which weeks those will be?

Jone's fantasy value is in the mid-rounds after you have your starters and do not have to depend on him regularly. If Barber goes down he will become the focus although Choice would also get a boost in production that would make him as relevant at that point as Jones does now.

 

[The Ram]

I'm in the same camp as ER. Barber and Jones will each get plays designed to take advantage of their strengths. Garrett will get both the ball because both have skills and now that they've cut out the TO cancer there is a playmaker void to fill. Most Jones believers think Felix will take a few more of the plays that would have gone to TO.

 

[derringer007]

With MBIII getting hurt down the stretch last season, i think F.Jones will get a lot of looks this season to help keep Barber off the injury list, if Dallas is going to make a run for the roses Barber really needs to stay fresh late in the season.
With the departure of T.O. i think that Dallas will be running the ball a little more and getting the ball to RBs via the pass as i feel that the wide outs will have to prove themselves early on that they are for real.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

In the 2 games last year that Felix only received 3 carries, the team only had a total of 22 rushing attempts for the whole game while passing the ball 35-40 times.

As long as it's not the TO air show.. there will be enough carries for Barber and Jones to make an impact.

 

[Deacon]

To say that Felix is useless is pretty strong. In the only 5 games of his pro career, he had some pretty strong outings for a 3rd down back.

9 carries, 62 Yds, TD 0 rec.
6 carries, 76 Yds, TD 1 rec 7 yds
9 carries, 96 yds, TD 1 rec 3 yds

Those look like some pretty useful fantasy numbers to me.

His numbers don't really suggest that he is a 3rd down back. If he was, I would think he would have a few more receptions than 2 in 5 games.

This is probably all good info for another thread though..

Clearly the production you have outlined here is not useless but the fact that he has such a limited role makes him virtually useless.
Who would start him knowing he is only getting 6-9 carries a game? You have to really be desparate at your RB position to start a back that you know is going to max out at under 10 carries.

That is not even enough to warrant a flex position.

So while his production was very very good his limited use would be a very big concern for myself. 9 carries could just as easily equal 15 yds on a bad day.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Clearly the production you have outlined here is not useless but the fact that he has such a limited role makes him virtually useless.
Who would start him knowing he is only getting 6-9 carries a game? You have to really be desparate at your RB position to start a back that you know is going to max out at under 10 carries.

That is not even enough to warrant a flex position.

So while his production was very very good his limited use would be a very big concern for myself. 9 carries could just as easily equal 15 yds on a bad day.

This is true, but in the only 3 games that he received more than 6 carries, he scored a TD EVERYTIME and went over 60 Yds EVERYTIME.

All RBs have bad days, so you're not going to escape that anywhere you look, even the 1st round.

I'll gladly take this cat in a flex position. 12, 13, and 15 point days out of my flex... sign me up!

 

[eaglechick]

and don't forget return yards!

last year in my ppr (dynasty) league with returns, he scored 13.6, 24.29, 18.33, (3.78), 20.24, and (3.74) points

am i a fan?

:koolaid:

 

[The Ram]

and don't forget return yards!

last year in my ppr (dynasty) league with returns, he scored 13.6, 24.29, 18.33, (3.78), 20.24, and (3.74) points

am i a fan?

:koolaid:

Good point, chica. Return yards up his value. But in such a league would he be more or less valuable than a guy like Leon Washington who has a similiar role?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Good point, chica. Return yards up his value. But in such a league would he be more or less valuable than a guy like Leon Washington who has a similiar role?

I like Leon a little bit more based on situation. He's not running behind a guy who is in his prime.

I also like the fact that Leon has become a major part of the passing game, where Felix has not.

 

[eaglechick]

Good point, chica. Return yards up his value. But in such a league would he be more or less valuable than a guy like Leon Washington who has a similiar role?

in that league, leon was the 4th scoring RB (after deangelo, forte, and mj-d) and the 10th scorer overall (!!! he's also on my roster :koolaid.

so clearly felix is not in that league. however, felix was the 23rd RB for ppg, ahead of ronnie brown, kevin smith, derrick ward among others

 

[Phicinfan]

Thanks for getting that going Ram.

As you guys can already see, I'm a believer in Felix, and why not??

I see Dallas running the ball A LOT this year.

Felix has already shown what he can do with a limited amount of carries. Can you imagine what will happen if he gets 12-15?

Running behind Barber is also more of a blessing than a curse. Barber goes out and punishes the defense on 1st and 2nd down, and then Felix gets to play Barber's old role.

Oh, and forget about Tashard Choice. He only saw the field because of injuries. Jerry Jones has a man crush, and his name is cousin Felix.

Okay correction then...change of pace back.

In the cases you show, he had one long run that pushed him over. It is one reason I really like him as he can explode out of no where and get you a long Td. However, I am not going to base my assumption that he can continue to do that.

I also don't understand where you think the offense will change. You state that with Owens gone...they will pass less....here we disagree. The offense is the offense and Garrett has not changed. Roy Williams and Witten will be the beneficiary of Owens leaving...not Barber and Jones.

The ONLY real question to me on the running game is Barber. Can he survive, and will he get most of the carries...or will more go to F.Jones. If more goes to Jones...I agree he is a great flex play. If it is a repeat of last year....then unless you get return yards....I take him much,much later.

 

[Deacon]

This is true, but in the only 3 games that he received more than 6 carries, he scored a TD EVERYTIME and went over 60 Yds EVERYTIME.

All RBs have bad days, so you're not going to escape that anywhere you look, even the 1st round.

I'll gladly take this cat in a flex position. 12, 13, and 15 point days out of my flex... sign me up!

The sample is far too small to assume that over 6 carries will equal success. You can't seriously tell me that you would feel comfortable starting a RB (even at flex) that you know is going to only get at most 10 carries.

In the 3 games that you mention he had a long carry of 22yds, 60yds, and 33yds, all of which resulted in TDs.

Do you really believe he is a sure bet to bust a 20+ yd TD run every time he gets more than 6 carries? And how can you ignore the fact that in his other 2 games he had 3 carries each for 10 and 22yds with no scores.

That is the primary reason why he is useless. You can't predict what his production will be from game to game. He could boom one game and bust the next. That kind of severe inconsistency makes for a frustrated owner.

 

[Coachnorm]

From: Cooley Cadets post:

It depends on what you are expecting from Jones this year.

There will be a few weeks he will outperform Barber who will remain the starter but can you predict which weeks those will be?

Jone's fantasy value is in the mid-rounds after you have your starters and do not have to depend on him regularly. If Barber goes down he will become the focus although Choice would also get a boost in production that would make him as relevant at that point as Jones does now.

Clearly the production you have outlined here is not useless but the fact that he has such a limited role makes him virtually useless.
Who would start him knowing he is only getting 6-9 carries a game? You have to really be desparate at your RB position to start a back that you know is going to max out at under 10 carries.

That is not even enough to warrant a flex position.

So while his production was very very good his limited use would be a very big concern for myself. 9 carries could just as easily equal 15 yds on a bad day.

Both of these are valid summations and valid points as well. In the majority of leagues Felix Jones is tough choice as a flex back. A close call mind you but it would depend on what kind of value you can get in (Your) draft out Felix Jones.

Now in my 16 team league where the RB wealth is spread out a little more Felix Jones was very sexy as a flexy.

 

[The Ram]

The sample is far too small to assume that over 6 carries will equal success. You can't seriously tell me that you would feel comfortable starting a RB (even at flex) that you know is going to only get at most 10 carries.

In the 3 games that you mention he had a long carry of 22yds, 60yds, and 33yds, all of which resulted in TDs.

Do you really believe he is a sure bet to bust a 20+ yd TD run every time he gets more than 6 carries? And how can you ignore the fact that in his other 2 games he had 3 carries each for 10 and 22yds with no scores.

That is the primary reason why he is useless. You can't predict what his production will be from game to game. He could boom one game and bust the next. That kind of severe inconsistency makes for a frustrated owner.

If he gets 10 carries and 5-8 catches does his value go up? Because so far there have been two reports I read out of Cowboys camp stating he will be more involved in the passing game.

 

[Deacon]

If he gets 10 carries and 5-8 catches does his value go up? Because so far there have been two reports I read out of Cowboys camp stating he will be more involved in the passing game.

Sure it will go up. But what is the likelyhood that he would see that many passes thrown to him? If he is getting 5-8 catches then he would probably need to get 7-15 looks. That is unlikely unless they plan on bringing him in to run screen passes all the time. And if they did do that how long do you think it will take defensed to notice that trend?

I doubt very much that it can be possible for him to get that many catches. Reggie Bush who is a ppr monster only gets an average of 9.5 catcher per game and the Saints throw the ball well over 600 times a year. I don't recall the cowboys every having over 500 passes in a year.

5-8 catchers per is just way to high for a player that at best is RBBC and at worst is just a situational/change of pace/3rd down back.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I don't recall the cowboys every having over 500 passes in a year.

.

544 passing attempts by the Cowboys in 2008.

528 attempts by the Cowboys in 2007.

505 attempts by the Cowboys in 2006.

500 attempts by the Cowboys in 2005.

518 attempts by the Cowboys in 2004.

I get the feeling you're just talking and not really researching.

 

[DearbornDolfan]

He'll be a huge part of the Boys' offense with them implementing the proper Wildcat offense.