Felix Jones: Boom or Bust in 09'

Deacon

Bacon=greatest of all!
Every RB has bad weeks man... even the most elite.

Last year DeAngelo Williams, a top 5 fantasy RB, or RB1 as you would call him had 5 games with less than 6 fantasy points scored.

For those of you keeping score at home, that is 33% of the fantasy season.

There are multiple RBs who were in the top 20 last year who had 3+ games with less than 6 fantasy points. It's really not that rare.

Precisely! There is a huge difference between bad games every once in a while opposed to good games every once in a while.

In Jones' current role he will only have good games every once in a while.
 

RUBBER DUCKIE

New Member
I think Felix will have something to offer this year and I like him a lot more in PPR then non-PPR.... however all of his previous stats were with TO on the field pulling double coverage and keeping defenders out of the box. Not sure how much weight I'd put in the limited stats with what should have been favorable matchups, since the same situation won't be there in 2009 withoug TO.
The Giants O hit a wall without Plax out there pulling two defenders. We'll see how Dallas compensates.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Precisely! There is a huge difference between bad games every once in a while opposed to good games every once in a while.

In Jones' current role he will only have good games every once in a while.

Is there other RBs in his ADP range who you feel has as much potential and upside?

If you're so down on Felix that should be no problem.
 

Deacon

Bacon=greatest of all!
Is there other RBs in his ADP range who you feel has as much potential and upside?

If you're so down on Felix that should be no problem.

Cedric Benson
Donald Brown
Willis McGahee
Darren Sproles
Ahmad Bradshaw
Mendenhall
Fred Jackson
Jamaal Charles
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Cedric Benson
Donald Brown
Willis McGahee
Darren Sproles
Ahmad Bradshaw
Mendenhall
Fred Jackson
Jamaal Charles

I agree with some of these.

Cedric Benson is easily more valuable, but he's not in a RBBC.

I like Ahmad Bradshaw as well. We've already seen what the RB2 can do for NYG with Derrick Ward. Bradshaw hasn't quite proven that he can make it happen like Ward did though.

I would also agree on Fred Jackson. The fact that Lynch is down for a few games really brings his value up.

I'd be on the fence with McGahee, but he's close.

As far as the rest of these guys, I think you're just trying to fill out a long list.

Your biggest beef with Felix is that he's going to be so hit and miss as a RB3. Sproles is captain of the hit and miss group. He only had 4 games last year producing more than 6 fantasy points. Felix had 3 games eclipsing 6 fantasy points before the halfway point of the season.

You toss Donald Brown in the mix as well. He seems to be in a good situation, but we can't really argue his potential or ceiling. He's as much of a gamble as Felix is, maybe even more so.

Mendenhall. That's a joke. You cannot possibly make a case for him to be more valuable than Felix. He did jack shit in his few games, where Felix busted out in almost the same amount of carries.

Jamaal Charles? Seriously? Really reaching now. This guy was only given 10 carries once, and he played in every game last year. Only twice did he get 6 fantasy points. Not to mention the fact that he's playing behind KCs awful offensive line.
 
Cedric Benson - situation and apparent resurrection push him in front of Jones

Ahmad Bradshaw - I am not convinced he will be able to fill the void like Ward did last year but can see why others would.

Fred Jackson - 3 games to make himself comfortable as the starter gives him an edge over Jones

Willis McGahee - RBBC but he is in a position to be the leader of that backfield and is clearly still ahead of Jones

Donald Brown - This is close but I can see why Deacon would place him ahead of Jones hoping for a bigger payoff sooner rather than later.

Darren Sproles - With his re-signing I can see an expectation for his opportunity/production to rise but I would place him behind Jones

Reshard Mendenhall - Hardly a joke but I would probably put Jones in front of him unless RM demonstrates something special during preseason.

Jamaal Charles - Not a reach with the rumors of LJ's demise and having been taking snaps with the 1st team. He would remain behind Jones at this stage but could see big movement during preseason.
 

Deacon

Bacon=greatest of all!
Mendenhal will most likely be in a 60/40 split to begin with. The fact that FWP has not had a fully healthy season in the last 3 yrs leads me to assume he will, at some point, miss time again this year. Mendenhal will also most likely be the goalline back so the vulture prospect is in effect.

Donald Brown will also spell Addai much more often than Jones would spell Barber. If he can run good enough routes he should be a factor in the passing game as well and the Colts don't draft RBs in the first round to have them sit on the bench. He will play and play alot.

Jamaal Charles will eventually be the starter in KC. The last 2 yrs has proven that an unhappy LJ is an unproductive LJ. Charles will get his chances and with an improved passing game should have more scoring opportunity.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Mendenhal will most likely be in a 60/40 split to begin with. The fact that FWP has not had a fully healthy season in the last 3 yrs leads me to assume he will, at some point, miss time again this year. Mendenhal will also most likely be the goalline back so the vulture prospect is in effect.

Donald Brown will also spell Addai much more often than Jones would spell Barber. If he can run good enough routes he should be a factor in the passing game as well and the Colts don't draft RBs in the first round to have them sit on the bench. He will play and play alot.

Jamaal Charles will eventually be the starter in KC. The last 2 yrs has proven that an unhappy LJ is an unproductive LJ. Charles will get his chances and with an improved passing game should have more scoring opportunity.

You make a nice case for all of these players, yet I don't see a single fact stated. This is all assumption. I know Brown doesn't really count, since he's a rookie, but there are no facts or stats that back up these guys.

If Felix doesn't outscore 2 of these 3, I'd be very surprised.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
If you are always waiting for the stats to prove your point you are always going to be to late to reap the benefits.

This is true. I will also miss out on using a mid round pick on the multiple busts that can be found.

When you have a guy like Felix who has shown what he can do vs all these guys who haven't done shit, it is black and white.
 
This is true. I will also miss out on using a mid round pick on the multiple busts that can be found.

No you won't - you are simply counting on players being able to replicate a previous seasons #s


When you have a guy like Felix who has shown what he can do vs all these guys who haven't done shit, it is black and white.

Let me introduce you to some of my friends - the many shades of gray. I find living in a life that is not B/W to be best. :)
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Whatever man. I still haven't seen a legit argument for a guy like Mendy that makes me think he's more valuable than Felix. It just ain't happening.

You go ahead and pass on Felix and take Mendenhall.
 

Deacon

Bacon=greatest of all!
You make a nice case for all of these players, yet I don't see a single fact stated. This is all assumption. I know Brown doesn't really count, since he's a rookie, but there are no facts or stats that back up these guys.

If Felix doesn't outscore 2 of these 3, I'd be very surprised.

Well yes this is all assumption. As I cannot see into the future and confidently assume that you can't either it is also a fact that this whole thread and the vast majority of every other thread in this forum is about assumptions.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Well yes this is all assumption. As I cannot see into the future and confidently assume that you can't either it is also a fact that this whole thread and the vast majority of every other thread in this forum is about assumptions.

True, but a lot of these pre-season assumptions come with some facts and stats attached to them that help us handicap what we think these players are capable of.

We keep going back and forth over stupid details, yet I'm still waiting for a good argument why a guy like Mendy is more valuable than Felix.

In the end, there is no good argument for Mendy. It's just your gut saying that Willie is going to get hurt or Mendy is going to get goal line carries. Where are you getting this shit?

If you're going to argue a point, make the point and back it up man. This is getting a little old.
 
In swoops Miller and the death of this thread.
The voice of reason that stops us value maniacs dead in our tracks.
Felix Jones the chump or champ?
Neither, says Miller.

Holy crap. If I had a few lines of text in here that made no sense whatsoever, this could be an MJ post.

...
Oh, and forget about Tashard Choice. He only saw the field because of injuries. Jerry Jones has a man crush, and his name is cousin Felix.
dudes, check it

Dallas has no speed to stretch the field.
they will force teams to dedicate to stopping the run.
and let their defense determine the outcome.

the best bet is to let Cowboys fall
 
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