Felix Jones: Boom or Bust in 09'

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury.

Felix Jones is being charged with the crime of being useless. I'm here to tell you the facts, and only the facts. By the end of these proceedings you the jury will see plainly and clearly that my client, My Jones, is not guilty.

The prosecution is going to use a lot of fancy tricks on this one. They're going to use terms like small sampling and RBBC. Don't let these terms throw you from the facts of the case.

Let's start from the beginning. Felix Jones came into the league in 2008. He is well known to be a RB who has always found himself behind a better talent. His college career was spent behind Darren McFadden, but Felix's talent could not be denied.

The Cowboys saw this talent and used the 22nd pick in the 2008 NFL draft on Felix. He was brought in to be the compliment RB to Marion Barber. The prosecution will like to label his role as change of pace. They will use this term in a negative fashion in an effort to make you believe he is useless.

Felix proved just how useful he is the 1st time he was given the ball. On September 7 in Cleveland, Tony Romo handed it to Felix and he took it for a 22 yard TD. He become the 1st player in NFL history to score on his 1st carry. He finished the day with 9 carries for 62 yards and a TD. Pretty impressive for a rookie change of pace RB.

Then 2 weeks later on September 21 he made it happen again, this time in Green Bay. Felix was given 6 opportunities to carry the ball, and he took 1 of them for a 60 yard TD. He finished the day with 76 yards and a TD.

Fast forward another 2 weeks. Felix was given the rock 9 times and he broke 1 of them for a 33 yard TD. He finished the day with 96 yards and a TD.

Things were going great for the defendant until an injury caught up with him, ending his promising rookie campaign.

In his short time on the field he was incredibly productive. Felix gained 266 yards and scored 3 TDs on 30 carries. His YPC was a staggering 8.9!

Felix was also very effective in the return game. In his 16 returns he mustered 434 yards and a TD. That is an average of 27 YPR. That is good for 6th in the NFL last year.

Ladies and Gentlemen, those are the statistical facts.

Now the prosecution will want to speak in length about the games that Felix did not perform well. Yes, it's true. Felix Jones had what appears on paper to be 2 bad fantasy games. In week 2 against the Eagles he was only given the ball 3 times and only gained 10 yards. This would appear a fantasy disaster. What if I was to tell you that Felix broke a 98 yard TD return in that game though? Would that change your assessment of his fantasy performance?

His other bad game was week 6 against Arizona. Felix only had 3 carries in this game before suffering his season ending injury. Hard to really count that against a player. Injuries happen, and they typically cause a bad fantasy game.

So now you have all the facts of the case before you.

Next I would like to talk about the most important fact in this case. It is called ADP. Currently the ADP attached to Felix Jones is 7.05 in a 12 team league.

Other RBs in this range are Jamal Lewis 7.07, LeRon McClain 7.11, Donald Brown 7.12, Tim Hightower, 7.12, and Darren Sproles 8.01.

You see a trend in these names? With the exception of Jamal Lewis, all of these RBs are in a RBBC and appear to be the #2 option and might also be labeled as change of pace. You may see 1 or 2 of these guys that you might like more than Felix, but it's mostly a matter of personal opinion and implied value.

If it's the middle of the 7th round, your team likely already has 2 RBs, 2 WRs. 1 QB, and 1 TE. Hell, some of you saavy members of the jury may have 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and either 1 TE or 1 QB. If you're spending a pick on Felix in this spot, it's likely that he is not fitting into your starting lineup. You'd be selecting him as a young backup RB who has more upside than most of the others.

My summation of Felix is very simple. He is wrongly on trial for being useless. All the facts of the case point to him being very useful in the time he has been given, and point to even more promising stats in the future. I strongly believe that you members of the Sports Outlaw jury will see these facts and make the correct decision.

God bless.
 

Runnik's Hambones

Active Member
Yeah, I'm not reading all of that... jk

Honestly though, I don't think anyone can argue that FJ is a very good back when counting return yards. He can only be projected higher this year because it looks more and more like he will get more touches.
 

Coachnorm

Moderator
He'll be a huge part of the Boys' offense with them implementing the proper Wildcat offense.

I have heard a little rumbling about this, not enough to satisfy me yet. But thanks for the intel DD.



It does sound like Jones carries may indeed go up, which makes him more viable.

Sometimes we can make too much from stats or make real football assumptions from stats alone. I love stats and all of us that play Fantasy Football do and they are vital to our analysis of players.

But having said that sometimes we have to look at the real NFL impact a player has on a game or gameplan to get a real picture. Felix Jones 2008.

Game one: 9/62 longest run 22 yards (nice) TD run 11yards (not just a goalline vulture)

Game two: pretty much a dud, not many carries not many yards.

Game 3: 6/76 longest run was a 60 yard TD

Game 4: bye

Game 5: 9/96 longest run a 33 yard TD.

Game 6 : injuried.

So you have 4 games/3TDs all what I consider long TD runs. Very Explosive and capable of taking it to the house at any time or place on the field. Explosive is a nice trait to have when considering a flexy back.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, you have heard my esteemed colleagues opening statement, argument and conclusion. I am here to correct any misconceptions he may have inadvertently created in your minds eye.

If memory serves me right, and I believe it does, Felix Jones is not nor has he been formally charged with the crime of being useless. For those of you who have not followed the thread back to the first page the facts will show that the honorable prosecutor, brother Deacon, merely pointed out that in his estimation the alleged accused was only virtually useless. As everyone here knows this is a lesser included offense for which Jone's rookie season stats support a conviction.

The defendant managed to touch the ball only 33 times over the course of an entire season. Unless 1/2 of those resulted in touchdowns that man is virtually useless to any fantasy team I have the honor of admitting an association with. The experienced master of illusion that Mr. Rookie is, has distracted you from this fact despite his admission that he would not deny that Jones has made a career of being 2nd fiddle to better players. After a college career as McFaddy’s sidekick Jone’s was brought in to duplicate this role with Barber. While important to any hope of Dallas returning to post-season play, his production to date is virtually useless unless he can achieve a dramatic improvement in his opportunities.

Rather that skipping through the mental scrapbook that ER has created, highlighting only the games that support his theory lets take a glimpse of the 11 games that Jone’s did not play. 11 weeks that amount to fantasy suicide if you were depending upon him. 11 weeks of literal uselessness. Ladies and Gentlemen, these are the facts and I am confident you will draft accordingly. Thank you.
 

Coachnorm

Moderator
Rather that skipping through the mental scrapbook that ER has created, highlighting only the games that support his theory lets take a glimpse of the 11 games that Jone’s did not play. 11 weeks that amount to fantasy suicide if you were depending upon him. 11 weeks of literal uselessness. Ladies and Gentlemen, these are the facts and I am confident you will draft accordingly. Thank you.

Thanks CC, this is a nice point.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Do you really believe he is a sure bet to bust a 20+ yd TD run every time he gets more than 6 carries? And how can you ignore the fact that in his other 2 games he had 3 carries each for 10 and 22yds with no scores.

That is the primary reason why he is useless.

Here is one case of Felix being referred to as useless, not virtually useless.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Rather that skipping through the mental scrapbook that ER has created, highlighting only the games that support his theory lets take a glimpse of the 11 games that Jone’s did not play. 11 weeks that amount to fantasy suicide if you were depending upon him. 11 weeks of literal uselessness. Ladies and Gentlemen, these are the facts and I am confident you will draft accordingly. Thank you.

So is the case being made against Felix now that he is injury prone?

In that case, don't draft Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Marques Colston, Tom Brady, Marion Barber, Anquan Boldin......

Calling any of these players useless because they were injured is stupid.

Useless would be a player who is in your lineup and not performing. Any player who is injured won't be used at all.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Nice post Cooley, and valid points, but I have yet to hear you argue against his ADP. You seemed to miss that entire portion that I referred to as the most important part of this whole discussion.
 
Here is one case of Felix being referred to as useless, not virtually useless.

Deacon is the prosecutor - you do not get the opportunity to address the jury again after your closing statement. Since you did not file an objection you have lost your opportunity to argue semantics or anything else that may have some substance.

Deacon to you: :nannie:

Me to you: :nannie:

The jury:
:pickle::pickle::pickle:
:pickle::pickle::pickle:
:pickle::pickle::pickle:
 

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
Great thread here. Seems like we have camps in the two extreme positions in relation to his value. I will argue that the truth is somewhere in the middle, as it usually is. Felix Jones is a change of pace back, however, we are in a day and age where change of pace back can have significant value in offenses. See Derrick Ward from last year, he was a change of pace from Jacobs......by way of his success this change of pace turned into a full blown RBBC. Jones has this kind of "potential"......but at this point it is "potential". Jones just has simply not done this over a large enough period of time to state that it is anything other than this. It is also hard to ignore that he did show great promise in his limited opportunities last season. It is also hard to ignore the declined production of Barber as his work load increased. You have to feel that Dallas is going to want to get his work load down more to where it was in 2007. This will mean increased opportunity for someone like Jones if he can continue to step up.

If Jones can impress early he will see the 6-9 carries increase to 10-13 a game. He can be valuable as a flex or RB 3 in this type of role. However, if he can not duplicate his success ealry in the season you could easily see his workload staying in that 6-9 range which would be impossible to count on. sure you may get a long run, but you may also get a 15 yd game. You just want a starter to get more opportunities.

Felix Jones should be drafted on his potential and is a decent option in the 7-9 rd range. If his value rises into that 5-6th range due to the hype machine kicking in stay away. But if you can get him as a high upside back-up, he seems to be a nice gamble at that point in the draft.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
In swoops Miller and the death of this thread.

The voice of reason that stops us value maniacs dead in our tracks.

Felix Jones the chump or champ?

Neither, says Miller.

Holy crap. If I had a few lines of text in here that made no sense whatsoever, this could be an MJ post.
 
Felix Jones is a change of pace back.. and... can have significant value.

Jones has... potential.

It is also hard to ignore that he did show great promise. It is also hard to ignore the declined production of Barber as his work load increased.

If Jones can impress early he will see the 6-9 carries increase to 10-13 a game. He can be valuable as a flex or RB 3 in this type of role.

Felix Jones should be drafted on his potential and is a decent option in the 7-9 rd range. If his value rises into that 5-6th range due to the hype machine kicking in stay away. But if you can get him as a high upside back-up, he seems to be a nice gamble at that point in the draft.

The prosecution accepts the judge's verdict as final - no appeal will be filed.
 

Deacon

Bacon=greatest of all!
Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, you have heard my esteemed colleagues opening statement, argument and conclusion. I am here to correct any misconceptions he may have inadvertently created in your minds eye.

If memory serves me right, and I believe it does, Felix Jones is not nor has he been formally charged with the crime of being useless. For those of you who have not followed the thread back to the first page the facts will show that the honorable prosecutor, brother Deacon, merely pointed out that in his estimation the alleged accused was only virtually useless. As everyone here knows this is a lesser included offense for which Jone's rookie season stats support a conviction.

The defendant managed to touch the ball only 33 times over the course of an entire season. Unless 1/2 of those resulted in touchdowns that man is virtually useless to any fantasy team I have the honor of admitting an association with. The experienced master of illusion that Mr. Rookie is, has distracted you from this fact despite his admission that he would not deny that Jones has made a career of being 2nd fiddle to better players. After a college career as McFaddy’s sidekick Jone’s was brought in to duplicate this role with Barber. While important to any hope of Dallas returning to post-season play, his production to date is virtually useless unless he can achieve a dramatic improvement in his opportunities.

Rather that skipping through the mental scrapbook that ER has created, highlighting only the games that support his theory lets take a glimpse of the 11 games that Jone’s did not play. 11 weeks that amount to fantasy suicide if you were depending upon him. 11 weeks of literal uselessness. Ladies and Gentlemen, these are the facts and I am confident you will draft accordingly. Thank you.

Yeah what he said!

I think some (one) are missing my point. If I were a coach of an NFL team I would love to have Jones. He is an immense talent. Dude got skills. (un)Fortunately I am the coach of some fantasy football teams. In that role I asess Mr Jones to be unworthy of a RB1, RB2, or RB3 slot on a fantasy team.

It is based soley on the way he is used on the team of which he plays.

Last year he was the change of pace/spot carries RB when it was just him and Barber in the mix. Tashard Choice has now made his impact known. It would be foolish if the Cowboys OC didn't give him some carries. They are more concerned with keeping their backs healthy than compiling fantasy points.

If in a similar role this year his overall numbers may look good but his consistency will be horrible. It would weaken your team if any RB put weeks of 3 -5 points with some 12-15 point weeks scattered in. In a competitive league that could mean racking up losses.

I really think Dallas is sitting on the next version of Tony Dorsett and just can't see it. He should be the primary back to slice through the D early and tire them down from chasing him. Then you bring in Barber and let him beat the daylights out of them.

If I see them do that I will draft him in the first round!
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
It would weaken your team if any RB put weeks of 3 -5 points with some 12-15 point weeks scattered in. In a competitive league that could mean racking up losses.

Every RB has bad weeks man... even the most elite.

Last year DeAngelo Williams, a top 5 fantasy RB, or RB1 as you would call him had 5 games with less than 6 fantasy points scored.

For those of you keeping score at home, that is 33% of the fantasy season.

There are multiple RBs who were in the top 20 last year who had 3+ games with less than 6 fantasy points. It's really not that rare.
 
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