Ryan Mathews to be this season's No. 1 RB?

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
Coach Norv Turner confirmed that Ryan Mathews will be given "everything he can handle" from a workload perspective this season.
With Mike Tolbert out of the picture, Mathews has no legit competition for passing-down duties and goal-line opportunities. Turner has already suggested Mathews can be an every-down workhorse in his third season. After finishing seventh in fantasy points as a timeshare back last season, Rotoworld believes Mathews has the talent and situation to give Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy a run as the top fantasy back for 2012.

If he stays healthy I can see him as a top 5 back but NO way that I agree that he can be the #1 RB in the NFL. Not unless Turner has decided to give up the air show on the west coast.
 

Orgazmo

Well-Known Member
Turner uses his best assets, be it Rivers or Emmit Smith. He doesn't force a system like a Mike Martz does.

I think I read Matthews hasn't had an injury free season dating back to high school. I just hope the inevitable isn't serious, because he's going to really help a couple of my teams.
 

jjtweeks

Moderator
He definitely has the potential but like you guys have said and seen, I don't see him playing a full season healthy. Will likely be almost as frustrating as a McFadden owner in the future.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
No.....Friggen.....Way.

you heard hit here first, NO FRIGGEN WAY will he be the #1 Rb in this league. He is not that good, nor is he that durable. SD is about to learn that letting Tolbert go was a huge mistake. You heard it here first folks.
 

Arctic Dawgs

Well-Known Member
Putting a list together now and he is looking to be 6/7 ranked from a Keeper/Dynasty ranking
 
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mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
No.....Friggen.....Way.

you heard hit here first, NO FRIGGEN WAY will he be the #1 Rb in this league. He is not that good, nor is he that durable. SD is about to learn that letting Tolbert go was a huge mistake. You heard it here first folks.

PhiCin has spoken so you can take it to the bank.
 

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
Disagree, I like Mathews this year.....not as a #1, but he is a threat to have a big time year. He does need to stay healthy, which is my biggest concern with him. I think he has the talent and situation to take the next step.
 

efactor

Coming at you
No.....Friggen.....Way.

you heard hit here first, NO FRIGGEN WAY will he be the #1 Rb in this league. He is not that good, nor is he that durable. SD is about to learn that letting Tolbert go was a huge mistake. You heard it here first folks.

Well there is a "friggin way" he could finish #1. He will get all the action in SD this year including goal line carries, so if he builds on what he accomplished last year, finishing number one is a very real possibility. Lots of excellent backs to outperform, but to say it can't happen is foolish. Doubt anyone thought Foster would be the top back in 2010 before the season started.

If he "isn't that good" as you say, why was he a first round pick who had a top 7 season last year despite missing several games? He's really good. Question his durability perhaps, but not his talent.

Of course if he finishes #2, you will technically be right and I'm sure you'll wave your arms and tell everyone "I told you so", remember where you heard it first". Congrats in advance if he only finishes in the top 5.
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Well there is a "friggin way" he could finish #1. He will get all the action in SD this year including goal line carries, so if he builds on what he accomplished last year, finishing number one is a very real possibility. Lots of excellent backs to outperform, but to say it can't happen is foolish. Doubt anyone thought Foster would be the top back in 2010 before the season started.
Well, for that matter ALL the other Rbs that are much better than him could get hurt too, but we don't forcast injuries right Efactor? Except, here, where with all the carries he will get hurt.

If he "isn't that good" as you say, why was he a first round pick who had a top 7 season last year despite missing several games? He's really good. Question his durability perhaps, but not his talent.
Do I need to list all the first round draft pick RBs that have failed? No, I didn't think so. As for his numbers last year....I am pretty sure Mr. Tolbert was there to get tough yards and aid. Or did I miss something?

Of course if he finishes #2, you will technically be right and I'm sure you'll wave your arms and tell everyone "I told you so", remember where you heard it first". Congrats in advance if he only finishes in the top 5.
I doubt he makes top ten again with no support. Only time will tell, but you know me, if I was wrong I admit it and have done so numerous times here.
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
I'll jump on board and state plainly that there's no way he finishes as the number 1 RB in the nfl. Now y'all can all rush out there and grab him with an early 1st round pick.
 

efactor

Coming at you
I'll jump on board and state plainly that there's no way he finishes as the number 1 RB in the nfl. Now y'all can all rush out there and grab him with an early 1st round pick.

How can you argue with that kind of insight? I'm convinced.

Note to self. Stay away from Matthews..............
 

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
So......by using the logic of phic, more opportunity is a negative and will drag his numbers down?
 

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
So......by using the logic of phic, more opportunity is a negative and will drag his numbers down?

Excellent question.

Here is my thoughts. In most teams, they have gone away from the model of a one and total Rb, instead they are parcellling out the carries. Why? Strain and durability.

So will this devalue Matthews, in my opinion yes. Why? He has already shown he breaks down easily, with no real support and more burden on him, I don't see him lasting a whole season. Call it the Fred Taylor condition. Fred was a fantasy stud....for 4-6 games, then was in and out from then on. I see Mathews the same here. Just look at what Tolbert did in SD while there. Now add that burden to Matthews.

Now, am I a saying there is no back capable. Nope. Look at Forte, MJD, Peterson and to a point McCoy. But, other than Forte, they have been big durable Rbs. McCoy to me is a slight outlier as he does as much receptions as rushing.

So, in summary, yes if the back can handle it.....more carries is solid. But look at what happened to charles and some others who were not built for that.

I don't see Matthews in that build or catagory. So yes, more carries means a negative.
 
1/2 of the guys you just stated as being "capable" of handling the large workload missed at least as many games as Matthews did last year.....

There simply is no "sure" thing when drafting RB's anymore. With defenses getting bigger and faster every year the injuries are going to happen, especially if there might be even the slightest hint of a concussion. Opportunity is the only truth that will color my judgement in terms of RB drafting, and in Matthews case he has a huge one.
 

Arctic Dawgs

Well-Known Member
HUH ???
Now, am I a saying there is no back capable. Nope. Look at Forte, MJD, Peterson and to a point McCoy. But, other than Forte, they have been big durable Rbs. McCoy to me is a slight outlier as he does as much receptions as rushing.

Mathews 6'0" 218lbs

Forte 6'2" 218 lbs
Pederson 6'1" 217 lbs

MJD 5'7" 208 lbs

You should fire your research assistant
 

WesDawg

'Burghapologist
Mathews could absolutely be the #1 RB in the NFL in 2012. His HC is almost contractually obligated to say such things.
Rivers could also be the #1 QB in the NFL. Gates could also be the #1 TE in the NFL.

Only problem is... Gates and Mathews have both earned the injury-prone label. The other problem is, if both of those guys miss time, as they've done in the past, Rivers has little chance of finishing #1 despite his talent. But I'm sure if someone asked the HC if his QB could finish #1, he'd justify it somehow.

Jamaal Charles could finish #1. AP could finish #1. McFadden could finish #1. David Wilson could finish #1, etc etc etc

The point here is, talent and opportunity alone don't afford the chance of being #1 at any position, especially in fantasy. The 3rd, and arguably most important factor in this equation is durability. I can't realistically draft Mathews as the #1 RB even if he has the talent and now the opportunity, simply due to the concern that I probably won't have him available at full health for every game of the year. Until he strings together a few seasons of 15/16 games played, his final stats are irrelevant in all fantasy leagues that aren't a weekly H2H format.

Personally I would be very excited to see what guys like Mathews, Charles, and McFadden could do as the bellcow RB with an entire season's worth of production.. but I fear that I may never see that based on history.
 
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