ExperiencedRookie
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Falcons mates say Ryan making 'scary' improvement - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
Sounds like his off-season has been productive
Sounds like his off-season has been productive
Matty Ice
- Thread starter ExperiencedRookie
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ExperiencedRookie
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I think he is right where he belongs. He has all the needed weapons to have a big season. If Turner is a 1st rounder, Roddy is a 2nd, and Gonzo is a 5th that equals a TON of RZ trips and total offense.
:biglaugh:
So he's going to have a 15% increase in yds and a 63%!!! increase in TD's in one season?? And Turner is going to be ignored once they get in the red zone?? For him to justify a 5th round pick I think you need to be looking at around 4000 yds and 26 TD's.....that is over 500 yds and 10 TD's more than last year!! That is a HUGE increase from year one to year two.
I know he added Gonzo, which will help, but the rest of the crew is the same. I just don't think there is enough reason to believe he will jump 10 TD's, the yds could happen, don't think it will, but is reasonable.....the TD's is where the disapointment will be which will make it a wasted value that early.
Bank on around 3800 and 20 TD's, which is just under a 10% increase in yds and a 25% increase in TD's.....not 5th round production.
So he's going to have a 15% increase in yds and a 63%!!! increase in TD's in one season?? And Turner is going to be ignored once they get in the red zone?? For him to justify a 5th round pick I think you need to be looking at around 4000 yds and 26 TD's.....that is over 500 yds and 10 TD's more than last year!! That is a HUGE increase from year one to year two.
I know he added Gonzo, which will help, but the rest of the crew is the same. I just don't think there is enough reason to believe he will jump 10 TD's, the yds could happen, don't think it will, but is reasonable.....the TD's is where the disapointment will be which will make it a wasted value that early.
Bank on around 3800 and 20 TD's, which is just under a 10% increase in yds and a 25% increase in TD's.....not 5th round production.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Matt Ryan has a current ADP of 6.10.
If he puts up 3800 and 20 and you get him at the end of the 6th, is that good enough?
If he puts up 3800 and 20 and you get him at the end of the 6th, is that good enough?
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Last year Atlanta ran the ball 560 times(2nd in the league) and tossed it 434 times (29th in the league). This is very indicitive of Ryan being a rookie and the team playing it smart. He now has a year under his belt and a serious mid range threat in Gonzo. I see those numbers evening out more this year and Ryan throwing it closer to 500 times.
If you are comfortable with a Chad Pennington type as your starting QB in the 6th round then i guess.....not for me....I can find that production 3 rd later.
Penny had 3650 and 19 last year.....close to what I see in Ryan....I think that can be found without paying a 6th (though I have seen him much, much higher than that).
Penny had 3650 and 19 last year.....close to what I see in Ryan....I think that can be found without paying a 6th (though I have seen him much, much higher than that).
I can see this...may be a bit optimistic as I don't see Atlanta messing with a good thing as that running game was great last year. But this is a 15% increase in pa attempts....10% may be more realistic, but both are close.....
That leads back to the TD's, I don't see how he increases the TD's to much more than that 18-20 mark given the offensive philosophy.
ExperiencedRookie
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We're finding some middle ground here Miller. There's a few points I want to add though.
I don't think there is a question to whether or not this offense will be better this year. Anytime you add a player who is top 3 at his position to your offense, things are going to improve. As a KC fan I know what Gonzo brings to the table. Not only is he a fantastic teammate and hardworker, but the guy is a better receiver than most WRs. Also, a great TE is a young improving QBs best friend.
With the addition of Gonzo comes a lot of things. First of all, they will surely take the cuffs off Ryan and let him throw more. They didn't bring Gonzo in to be a blocker. Secondly, this offense will be more efficient, will achieve more 1st downs, and will have more RZ attempts than last year. This will give Ryan a chance to toss a lot more touchdowns than last year.
As far as those TDs go, Turner had 17 last year. Everytime they got down to the RZ it seemed like they kept it on the ground and pounded it in. I see Turner's TD number coming down with Gonzo in town. I don't think it would shock anyone to see Gonzo getting 7 TDs this year, most of them being what would have been Turner TDs last year.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
What would you say Ryan's ceiling is?
keep in mind, Gonzo isn't 28.....not saying he is done, he proved that last year, but let's not act like he's in his prime either.
two, there is not a guarantee that this offense gets better.....a year to look at Ryan and prepare gives DC's in the league a chance to make life harder on him. He looks great.....but he's not a slam dunk to make everything better. And Turner was the horse that made everything easier on Ryan last year.....and took a ton of carries....what if he breaks down?? Is Ryan ready to carry an offense on his back??
I think Ryan will improve, but wouldn't be shocked if he flatlines, or has a sophomore slump year two either.
I think his ceiling is that 3800 - 20 TD mark...I just don't see him eclipsing those increases.....that's a nice jump already.
two, there is not a guarantee that this offense gets better.....a year to look at Ryan and prepare gives DC's in the league a chance to make life harder on him. He looks great.....but he's not a slam dunk to make everything better. And Turner was the horse that made everything easier on Ryan last year.....and took a ton of carries....what if he breaks down?? Is Ryan ready to carry an offense on his back??
I think Ryan will improve, but wouldn't be shocked if he flatlines, or has a sophomore slump year two either.
I think his ceiling is that 3800 - 20 TD mark...I just don't see him eclipsing those increases.....that's a nice jump already.
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
It could certainly be worse.
2008 ADP
Carson Palmer 3.07
Big Ben 3.12
Derek Anderson 5.02
Matt Hasselbeck 6.06
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Nah probably not.
Runnik's Hambones
Active Member
That's a tough call for me. I can understand the logic though, Wes. Roethlisberger only threw 295 attempts his first year. In Matt's first year, he threw 434 times. Ben has only thrown the ball over that, twice in his 6 year career.
The difference between the two QBs is this: Pitt wont rely on Ben as much as ATL will rely on Ryan.
That was clear in their first year when Ryan threw the ball about 130 times more then Ben. I don't EVER remember hearing Pitt be like "we're going to put the team on Ben's shoulders more in his 2nd season." And that was clear when in Roethlisberger's 2nd season he threw the ball 168 times (now I know he got hurt over the offseason and missed 2 games in 2005).
Ryan, we call all bet, will throw the ball at the very least close to, if not over 500 times this year, I think. Let's put it at 500, that's 66 more throws than last year. That's about 4 more passes every game.. not really that surprising IMO. I think they'll take about 5 carries a game, on average, away from the running game, and into the air.
Ryan has more weapons this year, and unlike Ben, his team is going to rely on him a lot more.
The difference between the two QBs is this: Pitt wont rely on Ben as much as ATL will rely on Ryan.
That was clear in their first year when Ryan threw the ball about 130 times more then Ben. I don't EVER remember hearing Pitt be like "we're going to put the team on Ben's shoulders more in his 2nd season." And that was clear when in Roethlisberger's 2nd season he threw the ball 168 times (now I know he got hurt over the offseason and missed 2 games in 2005).
Ryan, we call all bet, will throw the ball at the very least close to, if not over 500 times this year, I think. Let's put it at 500, that's 66 more throws than last year. That's about 4 more passes every game.. not really that surprising IMO. I think they'll take about 5 carries a game, on average, away from the running game, and into the air.
Ryan has more weapons this year, and unlike Ben, his team is going to rely on him a lot more.
Not sure I totally agree with the logic here...but you do raise some good points.
As for Roethlisburger...he doesn't throw much because the defense is so good they can run all day and score. For that matter, the defense scores for him.
Atlanta has had to rely on Ryan more, because the defense is no where near as good, and while they did run a ton...they had to pass more to stay in games and score quickly.
If Atlanta could ever build the defense to be the same as Pittsburgh....I think the comparison of Roeth and Ryan would be spot on.
This year though...I think Pittsburgh throws more...so it may still be a solid comparison.