Let your gut speak.....who will you avoid this year?

[efactor]

If I'm picking 8th and Forte is still there, I'm winning that league, period, regardless of the format.

I wouldn't make any major purchases if you are counting on your FF winnings to foot the bill..........

Your league would be smarter than you give them credit for. Guys I would rather have than Forte in redraft, not necessarily in order:

ADP
MJD
Deangelo Williams
Frank Gore
Steven Jackson
Michael Turner
Chris Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Brian Westbrook
LT (nice bounce back into the top 5)
Calvin Johnson
Andre Johnson
Drew Brees (leagues with 6 points for TDs)

Last year he was the offense. Chicago didn't pay a heavy price for a QB to hand the ball off, and Cutler will not be dumping the ball off to his RBs like Orton did. Forte will be solid but more worthy of a mid 2nd rounder than a top 8 pick...........

 

[efactor]

I saw them about dead even last year, and Cassell had a better team to work with.

YEP!

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Guys I would rather have than Forte in redraft, not necessarily in order:

ADP
MJD
Deangelo Williams
Frank Gore
Steven Jackson
Michael Turner
Chris Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Brian Westbrook
LT (nice bounce back into the top 5)
Calvin Johnson
Andre Johnson
Drew Brees (leagues with 6 points for TDs)

Wow man. You're really dogging Forte here. How can you think Forte should be downgraded when the offense just got better? Cutler=more 1st downs=more red zone attempts=more TD opportunities. Who in that Chicago passing game is going vulture TDs and yards?

 

[Mustang Jones]

Wow man. You're really dogging Forte here. How can you think Forte should be downgraded when the offense just got better? Cutler=more 1st downs=more red zone attempts=more TD opportunities. Who in that Chicago passing game is going vulture TDs and yards?

The Bears are too legit to quit.

Those who doubt ER will only realize mid-season happiness. Maybe

and limited success without waiver wire prowess.

Forte could and should see some playoff consideration regarding time off.

But that is later. find the backup and insert as necessary.

ER has spoken

oh, and btw, the Bears TE is going to be insane. bof of dem. and a tall ass Bear WR, if he's not the TE.

 

[Remote Controller]

In a ppr scoring system I feel Forte is the #3 or #4 overall pick. He has plenty of talent, and is a 3 down work horse back, but he has, and more importantly so, that WANT TO! Wes covered it well above. Add dynasty to the equation and I might consider grabbing him first.

 

[WesDawg]

eF, If you're giving me Forte at #8 in a 12-teamer, I'm probably getting one of the guys at the tail end of your list 8 picks later anyway. In a 10-teamer, I would be looking at Forte/Westy or Forte/Andre.

I could also make many a purchase with Forte and Brees, methinks.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I will be strongly supporting Forte all pre-season.

Add him to my list of man crushes.

 

[Miller]

Here are some guys my gut tells me won't live up to their draft spot
QB's:
Kurt Warner - this guy was gold for me late last year....but to spend a 4th rounder on a QB nearing 40......sorry, don't see his run lasting another full season. If you take him you better draft and have confidence in Leinart.
Matt Ryan - So you are going to spend a 6th round pick on a QB who tossed 16 TD's last year?? Really?? This is still a run first and second team.....Gonzo is a nice new toy and Ryan will be very good, but he is not a top 10 fantasy QB just yet....I'll pass.

RB's:
Steve Slaton - Time to trust the gut.....no way I'm spending a late first, early 2nd on the kid.
Clinton Portis - All great backs break down at some point, some earlier than others. Portis has some high miles on that body.

WR:
Andre Johsnon - do we trust him to stay healthy again?? If his stock drops a little he can come off the list, but at the end of the first??? Too big of a risk injury wise for me that early.
Roddy White - No good reason, just don't feel real comfortable dropping a 2nd round pick here.
Antonio Bryant - Welcome back to earth Antonio.....

TE:
Kellen Winslow - Would trust many other TE's ahead of him that are going later.
Jeremy Shockey - Pass....

 

[Remote Controller]

Here are some guys my gut tells me won't live up to their draft spot
QB's:
Kurt Warner - this guy was gold for me late last year....but to spend a 4th rounder on a QB nearing 40......sorry, don't see his run lasting another full season. If you take him you better draft and have confidence in Leinart.
Matt Ryan - So you are going to spend a 6th round pick on a QB who tossed 16 TD's last year?? Really?? This is still a run first and second team.....Gonzo is a nice new toy and Ryan will be very good, but he is not a top 10 fantasy QB just yet....I'll pass.

RB's:
Steve Slaton - Time to trust the gut.....no way I'm spending a late first, early 2nd on the kid.
Clinton Portis - All great backs break down at some point, some earlier than others. Portis has some high miles on that body.

WR:
Andre Johsnon - do we trust him to stay healthy again?? If his stock drops a little he can come off the list, but at the end of the first??? Too big of a risk injury wise for me that early.
Roddy White - No good reason, just don't feel real comfortable dropping a 2nd round pick here.
Antonio Bryant - Welcome back to earth Antonio.....

TE:
Kellen Winslow - Would trust many other TE's ahead of him that are going later.
Jeremy Shockey - Pass....

Matt Ryan looks like a prototypical great Qb #2 this year in every respect except ADP. I feel he will cost too much, so I have to agree with this assessment on him overall. At the same time, he intrigues me, because that was as about as good of 16 td QB AS i HAVE EVER SEEN IN HIS ROOKIE YEAR, ON A FAIR(oops) team.

 

[Miller]

Matt Ryan looks like a prototypical great Qb #2 this year in every respect except ADP. I feel he will cost too much, so I have to agree with this assessment on him overall. At the same time, he intrigues me, because that was as about as good of 16 td QB AS i HAVE EVER SEEN IN HIS ROOKIE YEAR, ON A FAIR(oops) team.

I agree with this....but just way too high for me. I don't think he can live up to that ADP.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

Players I do not see me getting at their current ADP.



1st:
Forte: In a redraft going to high for my blood as the #2-3 pick
Slaton: I balk late 1st but given the lack of competition in the Hou backfield would consider in the 2nd

2nd:
White: Not a fan and don’t trust his consistent production to remain high enough to warrant this high a pick
QB: Brady or Manning are not going to end up on my roster. Brady has not convinced me he will return and perform where he left off, Manning lost Marvin which is fine given the decline in his health but I don’t see a replacement I am confident with.

3rd:
Welker: Won’t argue with his production in NE just has not been a player I have been able to work much interest/confidence in

4th:
P Thomas: May turn out to be an upcoming player that I am just slow recognizing
R Williams: May just be the bitterness of him being a bust for my Lions but I am not looking to having to depend on him as one of my primary starters
Warner: To many younger/promising QBs available at a later pick to take him here

5th:
Romo: The collapse in Dallas has as much to do with him as anyone else
Bryant: I would be comfortable with him as my #3 WR but not in this round

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

As I read through this thread I'm left scratching my head and wondering..is there any player out there who is a safe and solid pick at their ADP??

 

[efactor]

eF, If you're giving me Forte at #8 in a 12-teamer, I'm probably getting one of the guys at the tail end of your list 8 picks later anyway. In a 10-teamer, I would be looking at Forte/Westy or Forte/Andre.

I could also make many a purchase with Forte and Brees, methinks.

What's your point? Even the most novice FF player is going to get two good players (at least on paper) with his first two picks. There are endless combinations that could win you a title if you draft well after that, but getting Forte in your top 8 in no way would assure that you win it all. That's just foolish..........

I am just not impressed with the guy, but hey, I guess averaging 3.9 a carry really impresses some.............

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I am just not impressed with the guy, but hey, I guess averaging 3.9 a carry really impresses some.............

You show me another RB who could average 4+ YPC on that Bears team last year then.

That team had no passing game whatsoever. I bet Matt Forte saw more 8 man fronts than any other RB last year.

I think this kid has the goods. He is an every down back, the best offensive weapon on this team, has great hands, and makes plays.

Here's a really impressive Forte stat... he touched the ball 379 times last year and only fumbled ONCE! The only other RB in the league who had 300+ touches and only 1 fumble...LT. Just Forte and a hall of famer. No big deal.

I don't understand what is not to like here. He had 1700+ yards and 12 TDs on an offense that ranked 26th in the NFL. He is clearly the best offensive weapon, and the team just got a MAJOR QB upgrade.

I'd be willing to bet that Forte's YPC takes a nice jump this year, so I wouldn't get too caught up in the 3.9 crap.

 

[Miller]

lol, the 3.9 ypc is hardly crap....it's probably the best red flag pointed out on Forte yet.....I did not realize his was so low, that's not a good sign folks, no matter how the Forte man crush crowd wants to spin it......

 

[Jvirtue55]

As I read through this thread I'm left scratching my head and wondering..is there any player out there who is a safe and solid pick at their ADP??

Nope this year is a crap shoot year there are very few sure things AP is the only player I have not seen questioned

 

[efactor]

You show me another RB who could average 4+ YPC on that Bears team last year then.

Lets see:

ADP
Turner
Williams
MJD
Gore (had a 4.3 average behind a worse OL and with a more pathetic passing game than Chicago)
LT
Westbrook
Slayton
Stewart

I could go on. You make it seem like Forte is the most talented back in football by saying that nobody could have done better in the same situation. All the backs listed above are more talented IMO, so to say they couldn't have done better than Forte in the same situation is foolish.

I would take Deangelo Williams over Forte any day of the week and twice on Sunday, but he seems to slide into the bottom of the first in many mocks that I see. IMO, that's true value.............

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Lets see:

ADP
Turner
Williams
MJD
Gore (had a 4.3 average behind a worse OL and with a more pathetic passing game than Chicago)
LT
Westbrook
Slayton
Stewart

I could go on. You make it seem like Forte is the most talented back in football by saying that nobody could have done better in the same situation. All the backs listed above are more talented IMO, so to say they couldn't have done better than Forte in the same situation is foolish.

I would take Deangelo Williams over Forte any day of the week and twice on Sunday, but he seems to slide into the bottom of the first in many mocks that I see. IMO, that's true value.............

Alright... I'll continue to go to war for Forte here.

First of all, I never said that no RB in the NFL couldn't have done better than Forte in his situation. I was making a point that his situation was one of the worst in football, yet he still thrived, but the 3.9 was to be expected.

As far as those other RBs , yes of course they had a better YPC. You make a note that Gore had 4.3 with a worse passing game. That is incorrect. San Francisco averaged 238.8 YPG passing while Chicago averaged 201.8 YPG. San Fran also had a better completion percentage and 1 more TD.

The only RB on your list there whose team passing situation is as bad as Forte's would be AP. Minnesota was terrible moving the ball through the air, which means he probably saw as much run defense as Forte did. And yes, before you go look up APs ridiculous YPC, it's very high. Yes, AP is a FREAK of nature. But, AP goes #1 overall nearly everytime, so no one is ever really going to have to sit there and ponder over whether to take AP or Forte.

As far as the rest of those guys on the list, they damn well better have a higher YPC than Forte. Everyone of them is either in a RBBC or have good QB play and a freak receiver to stretch the field. You can't tell me that Slaton is superior to Forte just because his YPC is higher. The guy has Andre freaking Johnson running around down field! Same goes for J Stew and DeAngelo. They both get in and out of the game and get a chance to rest and have Steve Smith stretching those defenses out. If you put Forte in any of their situations I guarantee his YPC shoots up.

If you want to take DeAngelo over Forte, that's just fine by me. I'll gladly take the guy who is the focal point of the offense whose team just added a respectable QB. Oh yeah, and he doesn't share carries with anyone.

 

[The Ram]

Romo is a guy I'll shy away from in most leagues. He's not shown me the consistency I need from a qb.

MJD is another guy I'll shy away from in non-ppr leagues. He has produced well and is a td machine but there is something that will make me go elsewhere when he becomes available.

I will likely not go after Gore, either. His numbers are usually good at the end of the season however they seem to come in fits and starts.

 

[Da Bomb]

but all of those things are still true about forte. he still doesnt have steve smith or andre johnson or even the san fran passing game. jay cutler may or may not be a good QB, but he cant make the WRs get open or catch the ball.