Let your gut speak.....who will you avoid this year?

Miller

Miller

Who Dey
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So everyone spends all this time looking at the stats, pouring over the numbers, and looking for the trends.....but what about the good ol' method of listening to your gut? What players do you not have a good feeling about this year, may not have any great stats to back it up, but something just does not look right?

So who does your gut tell you to steer clear of?
 
Normally, my default answer to this is guys who have off-field issues that may result in them being gone for the duration if they have another misstep. This year, that list includes but isn't limited to Lynch, Marshall, and Henry.

I'll throw out a popular name because I have never ever drafted this guy during his entire career, Brian Westbrook.
I can handle losing some games from a normally durable guy who suffers a freak injury. What I can't and won't do is invest a high pick on a guy who I know will give me zero points for at least 1 week each year and will usually be limited for several other weeks.
 
Lynch:Suspension, Fred Jackson is good and Buffalo will tire of his act

Portis:Only 28, but an old 28. Bad 2nd half in 08 concerns me

Forte: Just don't think he's that talented. Will be solid but not worth the top 8 pick someone will spend and comes down to earth this year.

Bowe: I really think losing Gonzo will deflate his numbers. Don't think he is talented enough to beat the double team on a regular basis. Is going in the 2nd round in most mocks and that is too early.

Addai:Just not that talented and his 15 minutes are up with Donald Brown in town.
 
efactor said:
Bowe: I really think losing Gonzo will deflate his numbers. Don't think he is talented enough to beat the double team on a regular basis. Is going in the 2nd round in most mocks and that is too early.
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Bowe is freakishly talented man. Seriously.

Yes he loses Gonzo, but consider how many more balls are going to be tossed his way now.

Also consider that this will be the 1st time Bowe has a solid QB tossing him the rock.

Oh yeah, and with guys like Mark Bradley really stepping his game up, and Bobby Engram in town, I don't think Bowe can be constantly double teamed like some think. The KC receivers might surprise you.
 
I am big on Bowe because I think he is an all pro receiver. However, I am not sure about the QB that will be throwing him the ball.

How solid do you think Cassell is? Seriously good quarterback, or product of the New England system? I am leaning toward product of the system. Not rock solid on that opinion, but I fear that guy is going to be way over his head this year.
 
efactor said:
Forte: Just don't think he's that talented. Will be solid but not worth the top 8 pick someone will spend and comes down to earth this year.

Bowe: I really think losing Gonzo will deflate his numbers. Don't think he is talented enough to beat the double team on a regular basis. Is going in the 2nd round in most mocks and that is too early.
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I share your concern about Forte but would disagree with the Bowe assessment.
 
Mike said:
How solid do you think Cassell is? Seriously good quarterback, or product of the New England system? I am leaning toward product of the system. Not rock solid on that opinion, but I fear that guy is going to be way over his head this year.
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Consider how pass oriented that system is, then how he took to the coaching and learned to read the field and his progressions. Then compare him to a Jason Campbell.

I don't think he'll have the numbers he had in New England - this year - but I'm confident he'll help the Chiefs offense sustain drives, and that means opportunity for the skill players.
 
The Buc's RBs aren't too much of a concern for me because, like Orgazmo said, the O-line is very good and Morris has already stressed the run game multiple times. I think Ward and Graham will get enough touches to each be solid #2 to flex backs, respectively.

Bowe is fine and he will put up good numbers this year.

People I would stay away from:

Steven Jackson - They went O-line this year which is good for him but I've steered clear of him the last 2 years off of my gut and I think that's been the best call so far. So until my gut tells me he's safe, he will not be getting my pick.

LJ - Same reasons as above...

Marshall - Not only is he in trouble all of the time but now he has Orton, not saying that Orton is a bad QB but I don't see Denver throwing the ball as much as they did last year. Also I have mixed feelings here because it's not that I wouldn't take Marshall, it's just that he's not going in the top 3 rounds for me.

Portis - The beast of the east. This man is awesome and I wish him all the best this year but his knees scare the hell out of me.

Donald Driver - Where I feel he will be productive, something tells me that one or more of the stud WR rookies this year will do better, so I would probably take them first.

If I think of anymore I'll post them. Drawing a blank now, lol.
 
I agree with Orgazmo on Ward, the O-line, and the value. I will have to watch ADP's on the prima donna wideouts, and RBBC backs, before I pass a judgement, and lock myself in. I always deduct those coming off of injury, receivers switching teams, and Qb's with new offensive systems. Other than that I will wait on what I perceive as values for the scoring system I am drafting for.
 
ExperiencedRookie said:
Bowe is freakishly talented man. Seriously.

Yes he loses Gonzo, but consider how many more balls are going to be tossed his way now.

Also consider that this will be the 1st time Bowe has a solid QB tossing him the rock.

Oh yeah, and with guys like Mark Bradley really stepping his game up, and Bobby Engram in town, I don't think Bowe can be constantly double teamed like some think. The KC receivers might surprise you.
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OK, I guess I don't watch enough KC games to see his freakish talent that you speak of. I see a talented guy who hasn't had consistent double coverage because of Gonzalez being there, but just don't see a huge season in store for him when those doubles come. He will be drafted much earlier than I would grab him, so I won't have to worry about him anyway.......

A couple things to consider IMO:

-While Bradley had a nice season, neither him or Engram will scare defenses enough to take the double away from Bowe.

-Don't know if I consider Cassell even a "solid" QB at this point. This is a guy that most thought would be cut last preseason, and while he had a nice season, he was familiar with that system, familiar with that OC and had the 2nd best receiver of all time to throw to as well as a slot receiver that is truly something special. I just see Elvis Grbac written all over Cassell but we will see.

Not saying Bowe won't have a solid season, but don't expect top 10 numbers.........
 
I'm another guy who isn't afraid of Derrick Ward. I think he has the skill set to take the reigns of the #1 RB spot in Tampa Bay.

Graham could easily move back to FB, although he's still probably a TD vulture.

When I look at that team I see a lot of carries being handed out, so even if it's RBBC, there's more than enough to go around. They won't have the QB play to support a heavy air attack.
 
My gut tells me to stay away from these people this year:

Marion Barber - His greatest asset is also his greatest weakness. He just runs too hard. He tears himself up. There is no way Barber can make it through a season making 15+ carries per game. His best role was coming in as a closer in the second half and beating down an already worn defense. Plus I really don't think Dallas will have nearly as productive an offense as they have had the last few years...I see disappointment here.

Marshawn Lynch - Suspension of course. And he is just too inconsistent. He had only 3 100yd games last year and there is way too many 50-60 yds games with no TDs. Last year he scored a career high 8 rushing tds and that is just not nearly enough production from someone that doesn't rack up the yds. Plus it appears that Buffalo is ramping up Fred Jackson to have a bigger role so this may turn into the classic RBBC. Not to mention that TO will account for some of the tds that Lynch used to get.

Braylon Edwards - Is he a flash in the pan? A one hit wonder? Well let's look at his career stats:
'05 32 rec, 512yds, 3tds
'06 60 rec, 879yds, 6tds
'07 80 rec, 1289yds, 16tds
'08 55 rec, 879yds, 3tds

Now I know the QB situation in Cleveland was awful last year but how can you account from someone having that great a decline in production when there was not injury concerns. He started and completed all 16 games last year. I just don't trust him unless he falls below the 7th rd which he has not come close to in any mock that I have seen.
 
Mike said:
I am big on Bowe because I think he is an all pro receiver. However, I am not sure about the QB that will be throwing him the ball.

How solid do you think Cassell is? Seriously good quarterback, or product of the New England system? I am leaning toward product of the system. Not rock solid on that opinion, but I fear that guy is going to be way over his head this year.
Click to expand...

People will overpay for Cassel this year.
 
efactor said:
Forte: Just don't think he's that talented. Will be solid but not worth the top 8 pick someone will spend and comes down to earth this year.
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If I'm picking 8th and Forte is still there, I'm winning that league, period, regardless of the format. Can you possibly ask for a better situational improvement for a sophomore RB than he has? Vastly improved passing game and he's one of the few top-tier guys that doesn't have committee questions. PPR leagues, he's debatable as the top overall pick. Standard formats, he's a toss-up at #2 with Michael Turner, behind Peterson. At least in my opinion. I may be higher on him than most though.
As for the Bowe/Cassell debate, I'm not very interested in Cassel this season unless I totally whiff on my first 8-9 QB's. There are an awful lot of backup types that could've racked up stats in his position last year and KC just doesn't have many offensive weapons yet. He's just a random face behind a year's worth of inflated stats to me, until he proves otherwise.
Bowe is a guy that I'm ok with as my WR2 in redraft leagues, but I'd be looking for another WR2 guy if I picked him in a 3-WR league, or one with a RB/WR flex spot. In a dynasty/keeper, I move him several spots higher though due to his raw talent and the expectation that Pioli will build on offense soon.
 
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