Help me to understand this difference...

[Deacon]

In thread after thread after thread I see many different posters express concern about Michael Turner and his value based on the amount of carries he had last year. It has been repeated several times in the MJD v. Turner close call thread for example.

Now I understand the concern with the amount of carries but I also see what I perceive as a double standard.

Last season Turner had 376 rushes. Comparatively Adrian Peterson had 363 rushes.

That's a difference of 13 carries!

So why is the amount of carries such a concern for Turner and not Peterson?

Also Peterson had 21 receptions compared to Turner's 6. So in reality Peterson had 2 more touches than Turner yet I have never seen anyone state workload as a cause for concern with Peterson while it is the number one reason why some doubt Turner's upcoming production potential.

Is 13 more carries that much of a difference to base concern for one over the other?

Or is the number of carries the only reason some can come up with to validate their doubt about Turner?


Help me understand.

 

[Miller]

Great post! Here is my take. IMO, Peterson is a special talent and will be a workhorse in this league for many years. He does have a small injury history that leads to some slight concerns, but overall I think he is going to be one of the better RB's in the league over the full course of his career.

With Turner the concern from me comes in that here was a little known back-up who proved his worth the hard way and then when given the chance exploded.....yet can he do it over the long haul? Can his body hold up over the long haul? It's been since college since he was the focal point asnd after one year I am still a little skeptical. Turner is a very good RB, but I don't think his talent is on the elite level and I don't think his numbers will stay elite for more than a couple season at best.

Guess that is the difference to me, pure talent. AP is a special talent that causes me to let some items slide by with him. Turner is not that special talent as so I pay closer attention to red flags with him.

 

[Deacon]

So Miller would you say your concern is only valid in non redraft leagues? Because in a redraft your only concern should be what you can get out of a player in the upcoming season.

For this upcoming season I see nothing that would indicate Turner will not be as productive fantasy wise as last season, but I do agree looking forward I would take Peterson over a course of several seasons because he is a much greater talent.

 

[Coachnorm]

LOl, Last year the knock on Turner was he had never had a full load and would he hit the equivalent of the rookie wall when he did.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

I'm not entirely sure I understand the question. I don't remember anyone acutally saying that with 350+ carries, Turner would not be productive. Here's the thing: we're afraid Turner will NOT get as many carries this year, as he did last year, bringing his numbers overall down.

I don't think anyone here is that concerned with AP loosing carries. Minn is going to feed him the ball 350+, without a doubt next year. That's why we're safe with AP.

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

With Turner the concern from me comes in that here was a little known back-up who proved his worth the hard way and then when given the chance exploded.....yet can he do it over the long haul? Can his body hold up over the long haul? It's been since college since he was the focal point asnd after one year I am still a little skeptical. Turner is a very good RB, but I don't think his talent is on the elite level and I don't think his numbers will stay elite for more than a couple season at best

Sounds a little like the Steven Davis story doesn't it :hmmm:

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Forte also had a ton of touches last year and no one talks about him breaking down.

 

[Remote Controller]

Forte also had a ton of touches last year and no one talks about him breaking down.

receiving touches out in space are considered different though

 

[RLLD]

receiving touches out in space are considered different though

That is what the judge told me as well....:hug:

 

[Phicinfan]

In thread after thread after thread I see many different posters express concern about Michael Turner and his value based on the amount of carries he had last year. It has been repeated several times in the MJD v. Turner close call thread for example.

Now I understand the concern with the amount of carries but I also see what I perceive as a double standard.

Last season Turner had 376 rushes. Comparatively Adrian Peterson had 363 rushes.

That's a difference of 13 carries!

So why is the amount of carries such a concern for Turner and not Peterson?

Also Peterson had 21 receptions compared to Turner's 6. So in reality Peterson had 2 more touches than Turner yet I have never seen anyone state workload as a cause for concern with Peterson while it is the number one reason why some doubt Turner's upcoming production potential.

Is 13 more carries that much of a difference to base concern for one over the other?

Or is the number of carries the only reason some can come up with to validate their doubt about Turner?


Help me understand.

I am with you. I am NOT a big fan of Peterson, and would not target him at all. Both have had too many carries...and somewhere around here we have a thread that shows the 300+ and above carries are a death nell to rbs. Add to that for whatever reason, his college history or what...I just aint that big a fan of Peterson.

 

[WesDawg]

Forte also had a ton of touches last year and no one talks about him breaking down.

That's because Chuck Norris wears Matt Forte Underoos. :biglaugh:

 

[Miller]

So Miller would you say your concern is only valid in non redraft leagues? Because in a redraft your only concern should be what you can get out of a player in the upcoming season.

For this upcoming season I see nothing that would indicate Turner will not be as productive fantasy wise as last season, but I do agree looking forward I would take Peterson over a course of several seasons because he is a much greater talent.

My concern is absolutely valid in redrafts and Turner's carries is not a death sentence...just a BIG part to the puzzle. I don't think Turner will be crap, I just don't see him repeating last year. There have been backs that repeat huge season with back to back heavy carry seasons.....but they are few and far between and tend to be the special talents at RB. Peterson is a special talent IMO. Turner is just a good RB.

Call it gut or whatever you want, I just don't see another 1700 yd year in Turner.

 

[Miller]

I am with you. I am NOT a big fan of Peterson, and would not target him at all. Both have had too many carries...and somewhere around here we have a thread that shows the 300+ and above carries are a death nell to rbs. Add to that for whatever reason, his college history or what...I just aint that big a fan of Peterson.

It's not 300, it's 370. and the numbers are over whelming. And per the formula (which count receptions as .5) both Turner and AP are over that mark last year.

Here is one of the best articles you will ever read on this subject from Tony San Nicolas in 2007:
Running Back Study: Heavy Workload vs. Future Production

This article was published on several sites and FFToday writer (now FBG writer) Matt Waldman did a great follow up to this last summer:
Gut Check 2008 - RB Workloads: A Study of Heavy Workload vs. Future Production - Matt Waldman - FF Today

So while I say it's gut that makes me believe that Turner will have a hard time repeating last years number's it more than that, it's history. It's more gut to say that AP will buck the trend. Those that do seem to be very special backs (see the list Emmitt, Walter, Dickerson, Martin)....I think AP can join the list, I don't think I put Turner in that category.

 

[Miller]

Sounds a little like the Steven Davis story doesn't it :hmmm:

Interesting you bring him up. i took a look at his work loads over his career. Only once did he hit the 370 number, it was 2001, he had 1432 yds 5 TD's....next year he missed 4 games, touches in the formula dropped from 370 to 219 and he went from over 1600 combined yds to under 1000.

 

[Miller]

Just to note, no runners hit this mark in 2007, and the only 2 that hit the mark in 08 are the ones we are discussing, AP & Turner.

 

[Coachnorm]

Very Nice, Miller!!

 

[Deacon]

My concern is absolutely valid in redrafts and Turner's carries is not a death sentence...just a BIG part to the puzzle. I don't think Turner will be crap, I just don't see him repeating last year. There have been backs that repeat huge season with back to back heavy carry seasons.....but they are few and far between and tend to be the special talents at RB. Peterson is a special talent IMO. Turner is just a good RB.

Call it gut or whatever you want, I just don't see another 1700 yd year in Turner.

I guess the better question would be 'why does your gut lead you to believe Turner is not an elite repeat'.

As I said before, there are many that argue Turner is not worthy of a top 3 pick but AP is almost universally accepted as such. Their workload was nearly identical last year.

So it seems AP gets a nod because of his inherent superiority in talent and skill as a RB.

AP has already missed games because of injury in his career, Turner has not. Yes AP's workload has been consistently higher than Turners' with the exception of last year.

All things considered my gut tells me Turner will have another great year. If everyone's gut gave them the same conclusion then FF would be mundane and easily scripted. Thank God for differening opinions!

 

[cctekguy]

Is there a flip side to this "Workload" theory?

Larry Johnson is a legitimate talent that had limited carries last year. Does his soft workload elevate his value for this year?

How about Steven Jackson? He was picked #1 overall 2 years ago and has had an easy go of it since then. Is rehab considered "workload"?

It just makes sense to me that if one stud is gonna take a hit for carrying the ball 300 times than another stud ought to get a boost for only touching the ball 100 times.


NOT


The Only reason we covet these guys is BECAUSE they touched the ball 300 times. It seems odd to me that you can turn that into a negative.

I don't dispute the facts, but don't you reckon a lot of it has to do with defenses game planning to stop these monsters and offenses trying to maintain an element of surprise?

...and don't you reckon that the respective offensive lines ALSO have an impact? Minnesota could telegraph their play to the defense and point to the hole AP was gonna hit and he would STILL gain 4 yards. How much of that is AP's "special talent" and how much is a "special offensive line"?

None of this changes the fact that AP is the undisputed #1 overall stud and that there is a halo of doubt surrounding Turner, but I hate to see it qualified by "voodoo ergonomics".

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

300+ carries in 1 year doesn't scare me off a player.

300+ carries in straight years scares me.

 

[Miller]

I guess the better question would be 'why does your gut lead you to believe Turner is not an elite repeat'.

I call it the eye ball test, I watch Turner play and I watch AP play and there is NO DOUBT in my mind who the special talent is.....I just think Peterson is a better RB than Turner. Add to that I see Atlanta backign off the carries Turner gets...I don't see Minyy backing off, not behind that line.

As I said before, there are many that argue Turner is not worthy of a top 3 pick but AP is almost universally accepted as such. Their workload was nearly identical last year.

Very true, and I believe the reason goes back to the above....you watch these two backs play and there is little doubt to who the better player is.

So it seems AP gets a nod because of his inherent superiority in talent and skill as a RB.

No your getting it

AP has already missed games because of injury in his career, Turner has not. Yes AP's workload has been consistently higher than Turners' with the exception of last year.

Good point here. I can not argue that AP has some concerns....those concerns won't make me back away though.

All things considered my gut tells me Turner will have another great year. If everyone's gut gave them the same conclusion then FF would be mundane and easily scripted. Thank God for differening opinions!

Now here we agree....differing opinions is what wins me championships....I don't want everyone else thinking as I do