Is there a flip side to this "Workload" theory?
Larry Johnson is a legitimate talent that had limited carries last year. Does his soft workload elevate his value for this year?
How about Steven Jackson? He was picked #1 overall 2 years ago and has had an easy go of it since then. Is rehab considered "workload"?
It just makes sense to me that if one stud is gonna take a hit for carrying the ball 300 times than another stud ought to get a boost for only touching the ball 100 times.
NOT
The Only reason we covet these guys is BECAUSE they touched the ball 300 times. It seems odd to me that you can turn that into a negative.
I don't dispute the facts, but don't you reckon a lot of it has to do with defenses game planning to stop these monsters and offenses trying to maintain an element of surprise?
...and don't you reckon that the respective offensive lines ALSO have an impact? Minnesota could telegraph their play to the defense and point to the hole AP was gonna hit and he would STILL gain 4 yards. How much of that is AP's "special talent" and how much is a "special offensive line"?
None of this changes the fact that AP is the undisputed #1 overall stud and that there is a halo of doubt surrounding Turner, but I hate to see it qualified by "voodoo ergonomics".
Okay, lets see.
As for the 370 carry rule...is it hard fact. No. Has there been a back to survive it...I am sure there has been. Still...
Here is the thing. You simply can't ignore wear and tear. It isn't a slow process either. Marshall Faulk was THE fantasy player for 3-4 years...and then dropped like a rock. Priest Holmes ditto. LT2 was NOT the LT2 of old. Is that a trend...or an outlier. We won't know till this year.
Turner is a special case to me. He was barely used by San Diego....and this was his first year with huge carries. So the wear and tear may not be too bad. AP is the same. His first year he was not the total carry horse....Taylor carried as well. Last year was his first really heavy carry load...so he too should be fine.
But of the two....Turner had a HUGE amount of carries...and took a ton of punishment. AP is the most upright running back I can remember in a while. That kid is gonna get killed soon.
I just don't like risking a first round pick....especially a high one...on some very risky situations IMO.
