Darren McFadden - Thoughts for 2009

[Miller]

There has been a ton of talk and debate about the stud sophmore RB's entering the 09' season. One guy who never seems to pop up in the conversation is the most hyped of them all going into last year, Darren McFadden. While the Raiders are not good at all, they do seem to run the ball decently and McFadden did show flashes of what he can do last season. He never seemed to look full recovered after getting injured early in the season. Anyone think he can bounce back this year fullfill the hype he had last season?

Personally, I'm not ready to toss in the towel on him just yet. In fact, I'd rather take him later on than risk a late first or early 2nd on a guy like Slaton or C. Johnson (I know....I dare I...). I think this year DMac comes in healthy and shows that is is indeed a freak of a talent that can make an impact in this league.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Does he still play in Oakland??

If the answer is yes, then I'll pass.

His current ADP of 5.07 puts him in a group with:

Willie Parker 4.11
Derrick Ward 4.12
Larry Johnson 5.04
Darren McFadden 5.07
Knowshon Moreno 5.11
Jon Stewart 5.11
Lendale White 6.08

And even later...
Cedric Benson 7.02
Chris Wells 7.03

I know none of these names strike a ton of fear into the heart's of opposing owners, but he's not even close to the best option in this group.

As far as I'm concerned, his asking price is still too high.
Lendale White 6.08

 

[Sgt John]

I own him for the next few years. Hope he does something now that Russel has two real WR's in Murphy and DHB.

 

[GBG]

OMG.
The Raiders signed Gary Russell today.
They will be a force to be reckoned with!

 

[Miller]

Not sure i follow you there, I know Oakland is a train wreck overall, but their running game is pretty productive. Let's look at their running game in the last 2 years and how it ranks overall:

• 2008 - 10th
• 2007 - 6th

2 straight years in the top 10, the only other teams to do this the last 2 years are: Giants, Vikings, Titans

Not bad company. Looks like the one thing they can do is run the ball. Out of the rag tag group you listed, I'd easily scoop up DMac out of them. By far the highest upside in that group I think. The team has a run first mentality with an offensive line coach as the head coach. I think he has the talent and opportunity to succeed.

Does he still play in Oakland??

If the answer is yes, then I'll pass.

His current ADP of 5.07 puts him in a group with:

Willie Parker 4.11
Derrick Ward 4.12
Larry Johnson 5.04
Darren McFadden 5.07
Knowshon Moreno 5.11
Jon Stewart 5.11
Lendale White 6.08

And even later...
Cedric Benson 7.02
Chris Wells 7.03

I know none of these names strike a ton of fear into the heart's of opposing owners, but he's not even close to the best option in this group.

As far as I'm concerned, his asking price is still too high.
Lendale White 6.08

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

I like McFadden personally. I wouldn't draft him in the top 4 rounds obviously, but 5 on and I feel as if I'm getting value.

The question actually should be, IMO, what's the highest you would take McFadden based on injury and the overall crapfest he has of a team. I think that's one of the more interesting things to watch, is his ADP's movement based on his team's production.

 

[Miller]

I think by the time real drafts come around DMac will be a 4th round selection, and I don't have an issue with him being my 4th round pick.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Not sure i follow you there, I know Oakland is a train wreck overall, but their running game is pretty productive. Let's look at their running game in the last 2 years and how it ranks overall:

• 2008 - 10th
• 2007 - 6th

2 straight years in the top 10, the only other teams to do this the last 2 years are: Giants, Vikings, Titans.

True, they were 10th in rushing yards last year. You failed to mention where they were for TDs though.

I decided to check for you.

28th. Not that TDs matter in fantasy football though.

How about 2007. They were 6th in rushing yards. 17th in TDs.

They have only scored 20 TDs on the ground in the last 2 years.

Those other teams that you mentioned..
NYG : 34 TDs
Vikings : 37 TDs
Titans : 41 TDs.

Im not ready to put the Oakland rushing game in that same company.

 

[Miller]

good stats on the TD's, and I agree they are not in the same category, but they also have done something that 28 other teams have not. The opportunity is there. If DMac can step up, that stat can climb as well.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

good stats on the TD's, and I agree they are not in the same category, but they also have done something that 28 other teams have not. The opportunity is there. If DMac can step up, that stat can climb as well.

Well, there's really no where to go but up. The problem is not the rushing game. The problem is that awful passing attack. Until they can sustain drives, moves the chains, and find that redzone on a consistant basis, that TD number will stay low.

There has not been enough done in that offense for me to be a believer.

 

[Miller]

OK, say he just excels in the yds....and TD's remain low. Let's look at what he can do. Just using last years numbers say DMac can get 60% of the Raiders yardage on the ground. That is 1250 ru yds. Say he also gets 50% of the ru TD's....that is 6.

So 1250 yds and 6 TD's. That is 161 pts in basic scoring, without any receiving pts at all. Say he adds another 20 pts receiving, that is 181 and a solid RB 2 even with crappy TD numbers.

Welcome to school

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

So 1250 yds and 6 TD's. That is 161 pts in basic scoring, without any receiving pts at all. Say he adds another 20 pts receiving, that is 181 and a solid RB 2 even with crappy TD numbers.

Welcome to school

Can I quote you on those stats as your realistic projection for McFadden next year??

This is a guy who had 499 rushing yards last year. He added another 285 receiving yards. He also found the endzone 4 times. In basic scoring that's 102 points.

Your projection there states that he will nearly double his production in year 2. What in Oakland has changed that will bring this jump in production?

If that's your attempt to flip my schooling around and bend this student over.. you missed. Just admit 1 defeat Miller and we can move on.:trampolin

 

[Miller]

Nothing has changed...kinda my point, I simply used Oakland rushing numbers from last year and a healthy McFadden getting 60% of their production.....looks like i was low on his receiving numbers though.....that makes him even better

And you'll learn that I don't do stat projections, but I will predict overall value, and his value as a 4th rounder is something that could be a steal. For DMac to get to these numbers NOTHING has to change or improve in Oakland, nothing.....just repeat last season and DMac be healthy and live up to his potential.....that is all.....Oakland can continue to suck....

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

And you'll learn that I don't do stat projections, but I will predict overall value, and his value as a 4th rounder is something that could be a steal. For DMac to get to these numbers NOTHING has to change or improve in Oakland, nothing.....just repeat last season and DMac be healthy and live up to his potential.....that is all.....Oakland can continue to suck....

For a guy who doesn't do stat projections, you were pretty quick to get those numbers up there and school me.

If you're going to use a projection to put me in my place, you should stand behind it.

I accepted your bet, care to wager on those McFadden numbers?

 

[Miller]

We already did, he'll need those numbers to win me the bet.

And all I did was a simply example of what 60% of Oakland's ru numbers from last year will net him. Your assumption was that Oakland's offense sucks so a valuable RB can't come out of it. I just gave you an example of what a feature back in that running game, using last years numbers, could achieve. You seem dead set that something has to change in Oakland....nothing needs to change, just one back needs to step up and be a feature back. If they can, a nice fantasy starter can be born. The question here should not be what has changed in Oakland, it should be can McFadden become a true feature back and last a whole season......that is what will determine DMac's value IMO.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

You're probably right, if 1 Oakland RB would step up and carry the load, there would be a fantasy star there. Fact is though, they have 3 decent RBs, all of which are going to get carries.

Last year Fargas got 218 carries, McFadden got 113, and Bush got 95. All of them had a good YPC average. The offensive line and rushing attack is solid, but no one stands out.

Could McFadden be the guy if he's healthy? I don't see why not.

Is Oakland going to give him 280+ carries? I doubt it.

Any offense that is running as much as they are needs to rotate those RBs in and out.

When I look at the other teams from last year that were higher than Oakland in carries I see some powerhouse running teams.

In order :
Baltimore, Atlanta, Minnesota, New England, Tennessee, Carolina, NYG, Washington, Pittsburgh, and then Oakland.

When you look at that list and then think about Oakland, which teams are the most similar in their rushing attack?

Baltimore is the 1st one that comes to mind. A team with a mediocre passing game and 3 RBs who all get their opportunities. This team pounds the freaking rock but spreads it out.

Next would be NYG. Another team that rotates the RBs through and keeps everybody fresh. This team had a much better overall offense than Oakland last year though, hence more scores.

New England was pretty similar last year too. They were forced into a lot more running because they didn't have their QB anymore. All those rushing attempts had to be spread out because 1 guy can't handle the load.

Then there is Carolina and Tennessee. True RBBC. 2 guys smashing the other team in the face. Lots of carries for both guys. Not quite like Oakland because of the lack of a 3rd man.

Then you've got Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington, and Pittsburgh. The bulk of the carries for these teams belong to 1 guy and 1 guy only. They feed the rock to their main man and kick ass. These teams are nothing like Oakland in my mind.

So basically, after all that BS I just posted I discovered something.

The best possible thing to happen for McFadden this year would be keeping Michael Bush on the sidelines. If they can become more like Carolina or Tennessee, Fargas and McFadden could both be servicable.

 

[WesDawg]

ER, what source are you getting your ADP's from?

This is the second thread where you've cited them (Julius Jones thread being the other) and they haven't exactly been realistic, unless you're playing in a 10-team or less league.

On the Run-DMC topic, this team isn't real good, so if we assume they'll be playing from behind alot, McFadden is the only guy in the committee that would realistically stick around for 3rd down action.

I'll throw out projections for a 12-team or higher, PPR league, provided he stays healthy.
45 receptions, 1250 total yds, 10 TD's, with considerable upside to exceed that.
I'd be happy with that from my RB2 and gladly take it in the 4th round area, depending on what I spent my first 3 picks on.

 

[Miller]

Now your getting to the real question....I think Fargus is the one to push to the sidelines and a smash and dash of McFadden and Bush being a deadly 1-2......the kicker for me is the elite talent I see in DMac. I think he is a 280 carry type guy. It's up to him if he gets the oppotunity, if he can step up, I think Al will push Cable into feeding his prize race horse....

You're probably right, if 1 Oakland RB would step up and carry the load, there would be a fantasy star there. Fact is though, they have 3 decent RBs, all of which are going to get carries.

Last year Fargas got 218 carries, McFadden got 113, and Bush got 95. All of them had a good YPC average. The offensive line and rushing attack is solid, but no one stands out.

Could McFadden be the guy if he's healthy? I don't see why not.

Is Oakland going to give him 280+ carries? I doubt it.

Any offense that is running as much as they are needs to rotate those RBs in and out.

When I look at the other teams from last year that were higher than Oakland in carries I see some powerhouse running teams.

In order :
Baltimore, Atlanta, Minnesota, New England, Tennessee, Carolina, NYG, Washington, Pittsburgh, and then Oakland.

When you look at that list and then think about Oakland, which teams are the most similar in their rushing attack?

Baltimore is the 1st one that comes to mind. A team with a mediocre passing game and 3 RBs who all get their opportunities. This team pounds the freaking rock but spreads it out.

Next would be NYG. Another team that rotates the RBs through and keeps everybody fresh. This team had a much better overall offense than Oakland last year though, hence more scores.

New England was pretty similar last year too. They were forced into a lot more running because they didn't have their QB anymore. All those rushing attempts had to be spread out because 1 guy can't handle the load.

Then there is Carolina and Tennessee. True RBBC. 2 guys smashing the other team in the face. Lots of carries for both guys. Not quite like Oakland because of the lack of a 3rd man.

Then you've got Atlanta, Minnesota, Washington, and Pittsburgh. The bulk of the carries for these teams belong to 1 guy and 1 guy only. They feed the rock to their main man and kick ass. These teams are nothing like Oakland in my mind.

So basically, after all that BS I just posted I discovered something.

The best possible thing to happen for McFadden this year would be keeping Michael Bush on the sidelines. If they can become more like Carolina or Tennessee, Fargas and McFadden could both be servicable.

 

[Mustang Jones]

I don't know if you guys watch Raider football. Regarding Darren McFadden. that guy.

DMac hasn't been the same since he had a break away play against KC. the DB caught him low in full stride. It was his last run in the game in which he gained like 180 yards.

Hasn't been the same since.
Hasn't run the same way again.

don't bet on DMac. Bush

 

[Coachnorm]

I don't know if you guys watch Raider football. Regarding Darren McFadden. that guy.

DMac hasn't been the same since he had a break away play against KC. the DB caught him low in full stride. It was his last run in the game in which he gained like 180 yards.

Hasn't been the same since.
Hasn't run the same way again.

don't bet on DMac. Bush

Oh man, you really thrashed McFaddy.