Where does Wayne fit in this year's fantasy drafts?

cctekguy

cctekguy

Staff member
**Message from Miller** Moved to a new topic, this split off from an advice topic when discussing if an owner should keep Wayne and give up a first to do it. Teckie and I got into a good discussion on Wayne's value and where he fits. Too good to bury in another topic. So where do you see Wayne? How do you see the first couple rounds starting to shape up?

Miller said:
I do disagree on Wayne.
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I copied your post with the intent of arguing but after doing my homework I think I might agree with you.

He certainly put up career numbers last year and Manning shows no signs of slowing down.

Still....#1 is a lot to pay. If it were a re-draft league would you take Wayne #1? I don't think you would. He'd be late #2.

A lot depends on who will be available to draft at #1. Shonn Greene may be there. Brandon Jacobs. Thomas Jones. Ronnie Brown. Frank Gore.

It's SO tough to field a decent Rb2 in our league and there are always an abundance of playable wr.

But....It's hard to throw away 100 catches and 10 TDs and without a round #2 pick there is no prayer of drafting him back.


All in all....I guess this is Mud's problem to deal with :nannie:
 
So let's do the math:

CJ @ 1
AP @ 2
MJD @3
Brees, Brady, Rogers somewhere in the next ten
Rice, Gore, Mendenhall somewhere in the same ten

That gets us to #10...You take Wayne over AJ?....Nope
Now we are at 1:11

Is Wayne next?

Maybe, but we haven't touched on Shonn Green, Fitzgerald, Moss, Rivers or McCoy.

If you pass on Wayne you've still got C. Johnson, Marshall, D. Jackson, Bouldin, Austin, Smith, Rice, Jennings, V. Jackson etc...

If you miss Greene, McCoy, Mendenhall, etc, then who is left for you?

Not arguing, necessarily, Just kicking ideas around.
 
whoah.....3 QB's in the top 10??? Not in non public leagues....1 may be a reach.

So let's look at the math:
1-4 I think are likely locks in CJ, AP, MJD, RR
After that grouping you are looking at the next tier of RB's: Gore, Mendy, SJax, Turner
And the top group of WR's: AJ, Wayne, Fitz, Moss
As far as the QB's, Rodgers, Brees, Manning are in the 2nd somewhere, but first may be a stretching it. Current ADP is 2.1 for Rodgers, 2.5 for Brees, 2.11 for Manning (Brady is 3.9).
I think after the top 4 it's WIDE open with a cluster of around 10 players that could go in a variety of orders: Gore, Mendy, SJax, Turner, AJ, Wayne, Fitz, Moss, Rodgers, Brees.

Wayne is easily in the mix for me due to his consistent production over time. You know what your getting there.

As far as who is left if you miss on the top couple tiers of RB's.....well you didn't mention either Carolina RB, also have Benson, Grant, Moreno, Wells, Addai, Thomas, ect.

For me, if you knew you could get a tier 2 RB or you really liked one of the tier 3 guys and knew you could get him then maybe it's worth passing on a sure thing in Wayne. But if your digging in the teens at RB is your drop off from there really as large as the drop from an Elite WR to the 3rd or 4th tier guys?

Great discussion Teckie!
 
I am not going to jump in and quote folks. But if you are in a PPR, then Wayne has to be considered a bottom round #1 or at least top round 2.

I have mostly targeted top Wrs in rounds 1 and 2 the last few years in ppr leagues...and have done well. While I agree mostly whith what you two have for the top 3 or 4. I would never go Qb in the first. Not Manning nor Brees nor Rodgers. So you will probably have at least 2-3 Wrs in the first as Miller pointed out. Those being Fitz ( especially now that Boldin is gone...), Moss and Wayne should also be there as well.

then you fill in with the Gores(whos value raises with Oline help in San Fran), S.Jackson and a hopefully healthy Turner.

With most teams using a two back system, you can get Rbs later...and get valuable stud Wrs early and do very well.
 
I dont see Wayne's numbers improving with the emergence of Garcon and the return of Gonzo. He would be 3-5 in the 2nd on my board and that would be hoping his stats stay the same.
 
Miller said:
whoah.....3 QB's in the top 10???
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Sorry,

I have trouble separating our keeper league from real life. :cool:

In OUR league, there will be no significant QBs available in the draft and if there are they will definitely go in the first round.
 
Reggie Wayne is a top 5 WR in most rankings right now. It all depends who would be available in the 1st. If Grant, Mendenhall or DeSean are available then it will be a good move to let him go.
 
Phicinfan said:
I would never go Qb in the first. Not Manning nor Brees nor Rodgers.
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Honestly, Ive struggled with this in drafting around the 7th spot..

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. MJD
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Andre Johnson
7. :headscratch:

In this spot, why wouldnt you want Rogers/Brees over SJax/RWayne/Fitz?
 
in a normal 12 man league i am more comfortable waiting on QB value and getting my RB's and WR's.
 
aspera1163 said:
Honestly, Ive struggled with this in drafting around the 7th spot..

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. MJD
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Andre Johnson
7. :headscratch:

In this spot, why wouldnt you want Rogers/Brees over SJax/RWayne/Fitz?
Click to expand...

A couple of reasons.

First, this depends totally on scoring. I am in one league that gives extra heavy scoring to Qbs like completion % and 6 pt Tds. In that case I would go Qb in the 7 spot.

However, in normal scoring, to me it is value for position. Every year for the most part the top 4-5 Qbs are within pts of each other. That is not always the case with Rbs and Wrs.
Add to this the fact that if you are in ppr scoring, a top flight Wr will outscore most Rbs. In non-ppr scoring, I would submit that a top flight Wr is even more important as the points will be limited to really stud Wrs.

So I would go Fitz or Moss or Wayne or a few others there, rather than reach for a Rb which I can get great value at later, and Qb which I also can wait a round or so to get.

Just my opinion though.
 
That makes sense. The leagues I have normally done, gave the QB 6pts per TD instead of 4 which will be the case in L2K so I would have to readjust my grading. With that being said, in a Dynasty set up wouldn't a QB have a longer shelf life and more consistent numbers than a RB or WR? Eg. Rodgers vs. Moreno/D Jackson
 
Rogers would not be a bad pick at number 7. even in a standard league Rogers could score the most FF points in the league. He could easily have 5 TD and 500 yards rushing. With that being said if one picks Rogers at the 7th it probably cause others to Grab a QB with their first and second pick. Lets say Brees, Manning, Rivers, Brady and Schaub all get picked up before your second. That means Grant, Desean, Fitz, Wayne, Medenhall, Marshall, Wells and Jackson could all be available with your second pick. I would go with Fritz or Mendenhall. Last year I was in a 2 QB starting league. I picked Brady then Rogers as my first 2 picks. End up winning for the second straight year.
 
If it's a 6pt/passing TD league, anytime after the 5th pick is a fine time to take one of the top-4 QB's. (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers). Middle 2nd is good for the next tier (Romo, Rivers, Schaub).
You really need one of those 7 if you want to compete. Every year there's a handful of RB/WR/TE that get chosen in the middle rounds that emerge as top-10 performers. Think Ray and Sidney Rice last year, not to mention Miles Austin and Brent Celek. Schaub and Roethlisberger were the only 2 QB's that really outperformed their ADP last year, and nobody jumps out so far in 2010 at the QB position to take that leap, outside of possibly Chad Henne.
 
rotoworld,
Reggie Wayne could be the next Colt to ask for a contract enhancement, speculates ESPN's Len Pasquarelli.

Wayne has two years left on his current deal and will make $5.47M in 2010 and $5.95 in 2011. One of the most reliably excellent receivers in the league, Wayne hasn't missed a game since his rookie year and has averaged 95.3 catches a year over the last three seasons. He'll turn 32 during the 2010 season and is likely seeking one more big payday.
Source: ESPN.com
 
rotoworld,
The Indianapolis Star speculates that Reggie Wayne may be sitting out Colts OTAs due to displeasure with his contract.

ESPN's Len Pasquarelli indicated the same in column last Friday. Colts beat writer Philip B. Wilson admits the idea is still mere "speculation." Wayne is due (only?) $5.47 million in 2010, and has made four consecutive Pro Bowls.
Source: Indianapolis Star
 
rotoworld,
Reggie Wayne has reportedly informed coach Jim Caldwell that he will not be attending mandatory minicamp this weekend.

Wayne has often missed OTAs throughout his career, but he's always returned for mandatory work. This time around Wayne's desire for a new contract is at the heart of his absence. He may well be underpaid with two years remaining on his contract at less than $6 million per, but the Colts are trying to take care of Peyton Manning first. Wayne's absence isn't a fantasy concern. He and Manning will be on the same page by Week 1 regardless.
Source: NFL.com
 
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