The Vick Pick. What's it REALLY costing you?

[cctekguy]

Michael Vick remains at the top of nearly every QB projection list in the country. His ADP in mocks never scares the second round.

Top guy, top pick, top fantasy scorer...right?

Based on last years numbers, this could very well play out to be true. He put up crazy numbers in fantasy averaging almost 30pts a game. That's 8 to 10 points higher than Brady, Brees and Manning. The kicker to this stat is...per game. If you take his numbers and divide by a full 16 game schedule then he falls well below the aforementioned three. Vick WILL miss games. It's the nature of his style.

When you spend your #1 pick on Vick you immediately put yourself in need of a quality #2 QB. Quality #2 QBs in a 12 team league start disappearing around the 8th or 9th round.

With Brady, Brees or Manning you can typically relax a little with your back up and sniff around in the later rounds to see who's left.

In essence, Vick will cost you not only a #1 pick but an #8ish also. There are still some decent players on the board in the 8th so Vick could really be costing you much more than you know.

 

[Remote Controller]

If you spend on Vick you immediatley decide to guage where you can grab Young. He will give you a poor boy's version of Vick in a pinch. (This is dependent on Vick not going down too early in the season) If you decide to grab a Colt McCoy/Sanchez type backup, you are spending depth needed elsewhere. I won't spend on Vick, but the owner who does might be considered the favorite in your fantasy league to start the season. It is much easier to fill the back position this day and age where rbbc and ppr have become the norm.

 

[storminn0rm]

If you spend on Vick you immediatley decide to guage where you can grab Young. He will give you a poor boy's version of Vick in a pinch. (This is dependent on Vick not going down too early in the season) If you decide to grab a Colt McCoy/Sanchez type backup, you are spending depth needed elsewhere. I won't spend on Vick, but the owner who does might be considered the favorite in your fantasy league to start the season. It is much easier to fill the back position this day and age where rbbc and ppr have become the norm.

That's a pretty good strategy. He will probably go very late in drafts, giving you time to strengthen your other positions. Now you still do need another backup QB though if you go with this strategy. So this makes you take 3 roster spots for QBs rather than 2.

 

[Remote Controller]

I wouldn't draft another qb. There are still 8 or so QB situations that I want no part of until I know more. I would stand with the two from the great offensive team and stay vigilant on the wire.

 

[cctekguy]

When I was gonna keep Vick, I had it in my mind to draft another #1 QB early. Kinda foolish when you consider that only 1 can play at a time but I was THAT worried about Vick going the distance.

Ended up trading him away and now he's somebody else's worry.

 

[Deacon]

Good analysis. Also add the fact that those averages include the monster 50+ pt game he had against Washington on Monday nite. He scored 3 games worth of points in that one game. What are the chances that will happen again?

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

I just did a mock based on this conversation. I hate drafting more than 2 QBs on my roster because it dilutes the possible talent pool that you can acquire. Like some have said, if you get Vick, it would be wise to get Young as well. You run into an issue then, come week 7. I decided to try out a draft in which I embraced this week 7 downfall and draft around that bye week in order to try and compete every week except for one. My first pick was Vick and my last was Vince.

1.07 Vick (7)
2.06 Nicks (7)
3.07 Bradshaw (7)
4.06 Maclin (7)
5.07 Steven Johnson (7)
6.06 Green-Ellis (7)
7.07 Deion Branch (7)
8.06 CJ Spiller (7)
9.07 Hines Ward (11)
10.06 Mikel Leshoure (9)
11.07 Rob Gronkowski (7)
12.06 Kellen Winslow (8)
13.07 NE D/ST (7)
14.06 Gostkowski (7)
15.07 Young (7)

QB: Vick, Young
RB: Bradshaw, Green-Ellis, CJ Spiller, Mikel Leshoure
WR: Nicks, Maclin, Johnson, Branch, Ward
TE: Gronkowski, Winslow
DT: NE
PK: Gostkowski

It must be noted that picks like Maclin in the 4th, Branch in the 7th, and Ward in the 9th were absolute steals. Any league with decent FF players wouldn't let that happen. Also, it was virtually impossible to build a team of only week 7 byes, but having only 3 of the 15 without seemed pretty good. It was quite difficult to maintain value with that rule in place. Overall, the team doesn't look too bad, though.

 

[eaglechick]

i don't have time to look right now, but i'm pretty sure vick close to outscored brady and possibly the others in one of my leagues last year despite not playing the entire season. he scored close to 10 ppg more than other QBs last year, so it's pretty hard to resist him after the top 4-5 RBs are gone. i like the VY approach as well, and i usually have no problem with 3 QBs on my roster. those late round fliers often don't work out anyway.

my $0.02