Super Bowl XLVI - New York Giants and New England Patriots

[xqj47alpha]

On Sunday, the Super Bowl will have a rematch from a prior Super Bowl for the fifth time.

In the first Super Bowl rematch, the Steelers defeated the Cowboys, again.
In the second, the Niners defeated the Bengals, again.
In the third, the Cowboys defeated the Bills, again.
In the fourth, the Cowboys defeated the Steelers, finally.

History seems pretty clear on the initial rematch.

 

[mudloggerone]

Nice work Alpha and it fits with my thoughts without knowing that tidbit.

 

[xqj47alpha]

I'll take the 3 with the hook where I can find it.
would love to get a m/l for +140 or better.

The line for this game opened at Pats -3 maybe some places -3.5.

Vegas sets the lines for the NFL.

During the season, for the most part, the public doesn't bet.
Not like it does in the playoffs and most certainly not like it does for the Super Bowl.

Keeping this fact in mind about how the betting pile must now include enormous amounts of bets from people who are casual bettors at best, Vegas delves into the psyche of the average American.

By placing the line for the Super Bowl at Patriots -3 Vegas is telling us on which side the average bet will be placed and which team the casually informed thinks will win.

In this case, the casual bettor is taking the Pats.
And, the line hasn't moved because the smart money is on the Giants.

If the smart money was on the Pats the line would move to four or five simply because the casual bet goes to the favorite.

I'd wager if you asked everyone here at SO who should be favored, it would probably be just about even.

Therefore, if you follow the smart money, it leads to NY.

 

[xqj47alpha]

bump

 

[deuce4321]

I hate both teams. Would rather have giants win over the pats though. Game will come down to Brady vs. The front four.

 

[xqj47alpha]

right on deuce.

I'm simply saying in a game where the outcome could easily go either way on a single play and is a borderline pick-em, not taking the three points doesn't make sense.

 

[Mike]

Hoping for a Giants victory

 

[xqj47alpha]

Mojo lives!

Only in the Super Bowl do the Pats give three here.

The Giants at +3 are -120 while the Pats at -3 are e/m.
The Giants are +120 on the money line while the Pats are -145.
That means there is more money on the Giants to cover, way more.
And even more smart money on the Giants to win, because
the line practically convinces the casual SB bettor the Pats will at least win.
and yet pays only 120 to 100 bet for an upset.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Somewhat related here...

I heard Vegas is set to take a bath if NY wins the game. In week 15 they were 7-7 and Vegas was offering +8000 for NY to win the Super Bowl. Rumor is that a TON of money came in, mostly out of the New York area, but not exclusively.

Needless to say, there are a lot of books who are rooting strongly for the Patriots.

 

[mudloggerone]

I'll take the 3 with the hook where I can find it.
would love to get a m/l for +140 or better.

The line for this game opened at Pats -3 maybe some places -3.5.

Vegas sets the lines for the NFL.

During the season, for the most part, the public doesn't bet.
Not like it does in the playoffs and most certainly not like it does for the Super Bowl.

Keeping this fact in mind about how the betting pile must now include enormous amounts of bets from people who are casual bettors at best, Vegas delves into the psyche of the average American.

By placing the line for the Super Bowl at Patriots -3 Vegas is telling us on which side the average bet will be placed and which team the casually informed thinks will win.

In this case, the casual bettor is taking the Pats.
And, the line hasn't moved because the smart money is on the Giants.

If the smart money was on the Pats the line would move to four or five simply because the casual bet goes to the favorite.

I'd wager if you asked everyone here at SO who should be favored, it would probably be just about even.

Therefore, if you follow the smart money, it leads to NY.

Excellent analysis Alpha, spot on. You nailed it buddy.

 

[eaglechick]

i'm boycotting this lousy SB :harumph:

 

[mudloggerone]

Shirely you jest EC?

 

[xqj47alpha]

Somewhat related here...

I heard Vegas is set to take a bath if NY wins the game. In week 15 they were 7-7 and Vegas was offering +8000 for NY to win the Super Bowl. Rumor is that a TON of money came in, mostly out of the New York area, but not exclusively.

Needless to say, there are a lot of books who are rooting strongly for the Patriots.

That sounds like a rumor simply because any money on that number would have changed it, let alone a TON.
Maybe 100 bucks gets you 800, and even then, the number would have fallen.
Usually the action on teams to win the SB closes once the season starts.
Sure, it gets revised as the season progresses, but a team still alive would never get that number.

Vegas doesn't gamble, although once in a while an occasional hook can cause a stir.
It's all about the Vig in Vegas

 

[eaglechick]

Shirely you jest EC?

well it's certainly not worth the all-nighter i'd have to put in to watch it live.

i'll probably watch it on monday night with mr. ec. only problem is, if i don't watch it live i miss all the commercials, which will likely be the highlight of the whole thing. that also means i can't turn on the computer or the radio on monday, because the SB even makes it to german news

 

[mudloggerone]

You make several good points there EC.

 

[xqj47alpha]

I guess the german news will report on the Super Bowl.

How funny would that be to listen to?
something like, "Nine, ze blow to ze head ist verbotten!"

EC probably meant germane, although that's not nearly as funny to imagine for me.

 

[eaglechick]

I guess the german news will report on the Super Bowl.

How funny would that be to listen to?
something like, "Nine, ze blow to ze head ist verbotten!"

EC probably meant germane, although that's not nearly as funny to imagine for me.

no, actually i meant german. you know, i live in germany :wink2:

and actually, the german commentators do a decent job of covering the game, especially since they have to explain how the game actually works to the viewing public. but we usually watch our nfl game pass package, since we get to see the u.s. commercials

 

[xqj47alpha]

i guess that makes my post anything but germane

 

[xqj47alpha]

You don't have to be able to read minds to know this is probably the most unpopular Super Bowl.

The thing is, the two teams involved are two of the most popular teams.
So why all of the 'hate'?

Probably because it could just as easily be two different teams.

Both of these teams are in the Super Bowl by chance, the result of one single play that went their way.

But that is why it is always better to be lucky than good.

I am almost certain there wasn't one best team in the 2011 season.
They're gonna crown one, sure.

However any one of the final four
was just as good as the other

 

[Coachnorm]

Pretty close to gametime now!

Haven't been able to decide who to vbet on yet!