So......let's talk AP then

[Miller]

Looks like there is some chatter about AP....so why not just dissect it here?

Top 5?
Top 10?
Pass?

Where do you stand?

Always been a huge AP fan, but I also prefer to jump off the wagon a year early rather than a year late. I don't think I want him as my first pick this year. I don't think he's done, I just see the consistency or even the immense upside need to make me want to build my redraft team I his back.

Not many 31 year olds have done it...if one can, it would be him, but here's another concern....not only do we have the age concern.....we have the issue of his production floor on a week to week basis.....AP was targeted 33 times in the passing game last year....only 33 times! He's not bailing out a bad game some receptions and receiving yards...it lowers his weekly floor. I also think it lowers his high end ceiling as well, which really starts to concern me. Age....not involved in the passing game....just not sure I'd be team comfortable going all in on him at this point.....I may be a year early....but I am ok with that.

 

[efactor]

I wouldn't take him in the first this year butttttttt drafting in a two RB required league, would snag him in the mid 2nd area.

I just think he has another solid two years left in him. Having basically all of 2014 off helped with the wear and tear. Guy is an amazing physical specimen and will get plenty of carries. Receptions are a negative of course, but if it wasn't, he would be a clear top 7-8 pick.

 

[German CTL]

I'd take him towards the end of round one in most leagues. He's a rare breed, I remember reading about how James Andrews (the Dr. who did his surgery a few years back) was in awe of how little wear and tear he saw in his knee. He'd never seen anything like it in a football player, he even went as far as to compare it to that of a newborn baby.

I think the guy has one more good solid year in him. After Antonio, ODB, Gurley, Julio, Lev Bell are gone... I'd consider AP along with a few other guys.

 

[KillerFins]

I like him late 1st, early 2nd in redrafts. There is no reason not to like him besides his age, and he had proved him to be the exception to the rule on more than one occasion. If I did draft him I'd go out of my way to get McKinnon. And I am not usually a handcuff advocate, but this is the exception to the rule.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I won't find AP on any of my teams this year at his ADP. For the risk, I've got him ranked around the end of the 2nd/beginning of the 3rd.

2400 carries and 31 years old. Recipe for disaster. I'm with Miller here, rather be off the train a year too early rather than a year too late. The list of all time great RBs who have hit 1k at this point in their career can be counted on one hand. Conversely, the list who have tried and failed is lengthy.

 

[KillerFins]

I get it. I am also one that won't spend an early pick on a player I don't have faith in. I'd take AP over Freeman & Charles.

 

[Miller]

I get it. I am also one that won't spend an early pick on a player I don't have faith in. I'd take AP over Freeman & Charles.

I'm with you for sure on Freeman.... And maybe on Charles. I think there is more upside with Charles at this point, but the injury downside and the presence of some capable backups has me a bit timid.... To be honest, I really don't think I want any of the 3 this year....

 

[cctekguy]

Other than Bell or Gurley, I'm not going RB in the 1st round and even they would have to be late. Peterson and David Johnson both have question marks around them. Love to have them, but not in the 1st.

 

[Remote Controller]

I like AP over Bell. Bell is fragile.

 

[Remote Controller]

Gurley, AP, and Johnson are first rounders for me. Bell too.....I'm just not taking.

 

[efactor]

Other than Bell or Gurley, I'm not going RB in the 1st round and even they would have to be late. Peterson and David Johnson both have question marks around them. Love to have them, but not in the 1st.

Bell has some durability question marks and coming off an MCL/PCL doesn't make him a "safe" first round pick.

I am really liking Elliott. Rookie question marks, but a huge talent playing behind an excellent OL. Romo and Dez back. McFadden hurt. Won't get the near 400 carries that Murray got in 2014, but 300 carries and 50 catches would make for a huge season in that system.

 

[German CTL]

Yeah I'm liking Elliott too.. he could be huge this year. I understand there's risk involved in taking a rookie as your first rounder but I'm willing and ready to at this point given his talent and situation.

 

[Phicinfan]

Fully agree with Efactor and German on Elliot. a late first rounder is well worth it for this kid. I also think AP is still a 1st rounder.

Not sold on Gurley, that offense is going to be putrid and the OL is still not that great, I think Gurley sees nothing but 8-9 in the box all year.
Bell I also won't take early, as he is not durable, and I have read multiple reports they plan to use DeWill alot more in Pittsburgh to help take wear away from Bell.

Johnson though is also a first rounder to me, he is explosive running and receiving.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Not sold on Gurley, that offense is going to be putrid and the OL is still not that great, I think Gurley sees nothing but 8-9 in the box all year..

How is this any different than last year?

 

[Phicinfan]

How is this any different than last year?

rookie Qb, with NO starting experience, vs a Qb with some. yeah its worse

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

rookie Qb, with NO starting experience, vs a Qb with some. yeah its worse

I can even tell you who started the most games for STL at QB. It can't possibly be that much worse.

In my opinion, his situation probably has the least seismic shift of any of the top RBs

 

[efactor]

I just have an uneasy feeling about Gurley this year. Not saying he will be Montee Ball, but don't think he will justify a high/mid first rounder. Defensive coordinators will be game planning heavily for him as the main (only) threat on that offense.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I just have an uneasy feeling about Gurley this year. Not saying he will be Montee Ball, but don't think he will justify a high/mid first rounder. Defensive coordinators will be game planning heavily for him as the main (only) threat on that offense.

Again, I don't see how that is any different than last year.

 

[Miller]

Bell.... I'll take the risk, his upside is as high as anyone in the league. He can win weeks by himself....love that upside. Cuff him with Williams and go to battle.

Gurley and David Johnson are similar for me... I really want to like them, just been burnt by sophomore RB's so much I'm not sure I'll pull the trigger soon enough on them... But Johnson actually may be the safer of the two with the offense that is around him.

Elliott.... I'd take him before AP. Non-issue going there late first. I think he is in as good of a situation as a rookie rb could be in.

 

[efactor]

Again, I don't see how that is any different than last year.

Excellent. I can use all the stats accumulated last year knowing that the results will be nearly identical. I will dominate.

Different year and defenses adjust in the off season. No vacations in the NFL. Not like the Rams have a Dallas like OL or a bunch of other weapons to take the focus off Gurley. I have concerns about his numbers. If you don't, draft him high with confidence.