Sarges Random Late Night Thoughts - Real. Comfortable. Reading.

Sgt John

Sith Lord of T&A
Trying out a new format this week with most fantasy regular seasons over. Let the Sarge know what you think about it and of course discuss the content. Alot happened this week, so lets get to it:

AFC East - Miami is pretty much dead in the water at 6-6 after wasting a great defensive effort against Peyton Hillis in a 13-10 loss to the Browns. Henne stinks, the offense is listless, and the only guy scoring is the kicker. Id expect some sort of changes there in the offseason. Buffalo really laid a turd against Minnesota, just a week after almost beating Pittsburgh. Steve Johnson suddenly cant catch, the turnovers were numerous, and the personal fouls were a joke. The 0-8 Bills are back, but at 2-10 the only thing the Bills are still playing for is Andrew Luck.

Boy did the Patriots bend over the Jets. NY had a chance to make a statement, and Brady just flat out crushed them. This loss brings up a very valid point. The Jets are 8-0 vs teams .500 or worse, and 1-3 against teams .501 or better. The Sanchize had a meltdown at the worst possible time. Could this be a "momma said there would be days like this game"? Well...maybe, but with games at Pittsburgh and at Chicago in the next month, the Jets could easily finish 11-5 and be having to travel to Pittsburgh/Foxboro, where they will lose unless they can get the running game going again, which has nosedived in recent weeks against mediocre competition.

Kind of hard to compare the two this season, but games like Monday Night are why Tom Brady is better than Peyton Manning. The guy just doesnt win games, he crushes souls.

AFC North - One day the Ravens will figure this out. QB ready for the snap, gives the defense one more quick look and sees #43 on the line of scrimmage. Spike the damn ball, call a timeout, do something other than run a play. How many times has Baltimore had Pittsburgh beat, and then TP wipes the Ravens asses? Four? Ten? That said, the Ravens are still well in this thing just a game back and having rendered the H2H tiebreaker moot. The "Crowbar Bowl" series is just awesome, violent football, and I personally love to see every game these two get it on. Both teams have pretty worry free closing schedules, so Ive got a feeling we will see 13-3 Pittsburgh and 11-5 Baltimore get it on again.

In case you missed it, the Browns are now 5-7 on the year after playing a bad offensive game and still beating the Dolphins. With Buffalo and Cincinnati on the sched before closing with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Browns could finish 7-9. You get this team a couple more defenders and an impact WR, they could make the North interesting next year.

Cincinnati blew another game, pretty much par for the course. The losing streak will be at 10 in a row after they get spanked by the Steelers this weekend. Its time for a total overhaul of the coaching staff in Cincy. At this point, not much else to say, every week is just more of the same.

AFC South - The Colts are falling apart. Peyton threw two more gifts for TDs in a loss to the Cowboys dropping the Colts into 2nd at 6-6 with 4 games to go. The Colts are two games out of the Wildcard, so they will likely need to win the division to make the playoffs. The closing schedule isnt too bad, with Tenny twice, Oakland, and Jacksonville.

Jacksonville got back to basics with solid power football and embarressed the Titans to take the division lead at 7-5. Rashad Jennings seems to have reasserted himself as the cuff to MJD, who himself has been running with power. The Jags close with Oakland, Indy, Washington, and Houston, so....there is a chance they could finish off 10-6 and win the division. Funny how Oakland has a chance to decide someone elses division.

Now onto Tennessee and Houston...two teams whose seasons had promise but are now lost. Combine the Tenny D and the Houston O, and youve got yourself a 12 game winner. However as is, they suck. I think 2011(2) is Kubiaks last stand. Anyone with thoughts on this division race feel free to share them.

AFC West - The Chiefs have a stranglehold on the division, and in total opposition to their last date, beat Denver 10-6 with strong defense, killing off Josh McDaniels in the process. Dwayne Bowe disappeared for the first time in awhile, but lets wait a week before we worry about the game being up. SD, STL, TEN, and OAK are on the Chiefs closing schedule, so its pretty simple. Win two of the next four and the Chiefs should wrap up the division.

Oakland hammered San Diego for the second time this year, and in the process may have ended the Chargers run at the top of the West. The Chargers have KC/SF in the next two weeks, but get them at home, and then two winnable road games. Its not over, but its in doubt. If your still in the playoffs, keep an eye on Sproles status. Jason Campbell is playing good football right now, but the Raiders still need to look at a QB in the top 3 rounds next year.

Oh..almost forgot Denver. Well, some guy Ive never heard of is going to finish the season as coach with Josh McDaniels out on his keister. The Broncos are a disaster, and its going to take a solid coach to clean up the damage done. For the Broncos sake, Pat Bowlen better get it right this time.

NFC East - Dallas beat Indianapolis in a pretty ugly affair to go to 3-1 under Jason Garrett, but lost Dez Bryant for the season with a broken ankle, which will hamper Kitna severly. Still, for a team that started 1-7, 6-10 wouldnt be a bad finish at all.

Philadelphia beat Houston to keep pace with the Giants on top of the division at 8-4. The Eagles get Dallas twice in the final month, along with the Giants and Minnesota, so the road home is going to be extremely difficult.

The Giants litterally ran over the Redskins with Jacobs/Bradshaw to get to 8-4. The Giants close with Minny, Philly, GB, and the Skins again, slightly easier than the Eagles slate. Im my opinion, alot will depend on if and when the Giants can get back Nicks and Smith.

Washington is a total mess, and has suspended Fat Albert for the season, basically for being a lazy ass. They are going to have to find a final solution to this issue in the off season, but for now I think the right choice is being made. Obviously the win now Skins arent working, so maybe some *gasp* building through the draft could be in order.....

NFC North - I still dont know how they are doing it, but the Bears are now 9-3 and still lead the division. Good to see the Bears get Chester Taylor involved finally, as well as Earl Bennett. If these are signs the Bears are finally putting it "all" together, watch out. Then again, lets see the Martz offense in a snowstorm....

Green Bay is still rolling along one game back, beating Gore-less SF by almost 3 TDs this weekend. Greg Jennings is coming on STRONG at the right time, and the defense is getting things done. Green Bay gets Detroit this weekend, but then close with NE, NYG, and CHI, so the Pack still has quite a bit of work to do.

Minnesota crushed the Bills after losing Brett Favre on the first play. Tarvaris Jackson isnt the long term answer, but I tell ya, the guy is the one to QB this team this season. Lets put Brett on IR and see what Jackson can do. I also want to see a peak at QB/WR Joe Webb, who would probably be playing all over the field for just about any other team. Any worries about Toby Gerhart being able to handle the load should be squashed.

Detroit. Really not much to say here. I wouldnt be risking Best with the season lost. I think this team is going to do good things in the near future, but right now being "competitive" is about all you are going to get.

NFC South - To me this is the most exciting race in the league. 10-2 and damn near unstoppable Atlanta leads the division, being chased by the 9-3 defending World Champion Saints, and the 7-5 Bucs waiting for someone to screw up. 3 quality football teams, 3 teams that play hard, and 3 teams no one wants to face right now.

Matt Ryan has turned the corner to elite on the field QB. The guy just knows how to win. Drew Brees conquers any injury, and Josh Freeman and the young Bucs are on the verge of exploding. The Falcons are in the drivers seat, and close with Carolina twice, Seattle, and New Orleans, so 13-3 and home field advantage are "almost" a certainty.

New Orleans closes with StL, Baltimore, Tampa, and Atlanta, so they are going to need to win out and hope the Falcons lose three games they should be two touchdown favorites in. Still, Im confident the Saints will march into the post season. Looks like the PT cruiser will be back for Nawlins this weekend after being in the shop for quite sometime.

Tampa Bay is still right in this wildcard race, but is going to need to win 3 of the last 4 to have a legitimate shot at 10-6. The good news? The other 3 teams besides NO left are Washington, Detroit, and Seattle, not exactly a murderers row there.....

Oh..almost forgot Carolina. Yes, they do still have an NFL Franchise. They close with Atlanta twice, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. I know you dont care anymore than I do, but its a dangerous game when the Panthers face Arizona, as they could screw themselves out of the #1 pick with a win.

NFC West - Well, The Rams and Seahawks lead this thing at 6-6, with San Francisco two games back at 4-8. This division is so bad, normally SF would be in it, but with the loss of Frank Gore and the ill advised return of Alex Smith to the starting lineup, the 49ers (and probably Mike Singletary) are finished.

The Rams/Hawks are in a race to win this deal, and probably be eaten by a 12 win team in the 1st round. Between the two, I think the Rams are the better football team. The Rams have the more difficult closing schedule, but the Hawks have less talent. If nothing else, it should be interesting.

Derek Anderson wasnt laughing this time around, but the Cards still lost the game as they usually done. Im not sure what the hell is going to happen after the season, but this is a wreck. Max Hall looks like a quality NFL backup, but I dont think this guy is the answer. The Cards to have big John Skelton on the roster, and though Id like to see him give it a go, Whisenhunt seems hell bent against it. (If you have an update let me know people). Larry Fitzgerald could be bitching up a storm right now, and no one would blame him, but this guy keeps on coming to work and keeping his mouth closed. Class Act.

Sarges Week 14 Picks:

Indianapolis @ Tennessee - Indy wins by 10. Peyton has been bad, but Tenny has been worse
Cleveland @ Buffalo - Cleveland by 6. Peyton Hillis is going to absolutely run wild on the Bills
Green Bay @ Detroit - Green Bay by 20. The Pack is too hot right now for the Lions to keep it close
NY Giants @ Minnesota - Giants by 1. The Giants are going to end up putting Brett back out if he plays, and its going to be a running fiesta.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 9. The Steelers are going to let the Bengals hang around too long, but the issue will never be in doubt
Tampa Bay @ Washington - Tampa Bay by 4. The difference is going to be Tampa having a real RB corps vs a bunch of cast offs.
Atlanta @ Carolina - Atlanta by 17. The Falcons are too good across the board and will slap around Jimmy "Pickles" Claussen.
Oakland @ Jacksonville - Oakland by 8. The Jags need to win this game, therefore DMac is going to be the difference.
St Louis @ New Orleans - New Orleans by 13. The Rams will score more than you think, but the Saints are just too good.
Seattle @ San Francisco - Push. I have no idea which bad football team is going to want this more.
New England @ Chicago - New England by 7. The Pats are red hot right now, and fear no ones opposing field.
Miami @ NY Jets - Jets by 10. I think the Jets will take a conservative plan in this one and grind out a win. Nothing to further freak the Sanchize.
Denver @ Arizona - Denver by 14. Both teams blow, but the Broncs have more motivation and the Cards give up like 500 yards a game.
Kansas City @ San Diego - San Diego by 5. I think the Chiefs are still going to win the division, but the Chargers backs are against the wall.
Philadelphia @ Dallas - Philadelphia by 10. The Boys are going without Dez Bryant. Thats the different.
Baltimore @ Houston - Baltimore by 7. The Texans will shock us all and hang tough till the end, when some obscure Ravers WR will catch the clinching TD.



Thats all I have for this week. Looking forward to some thoughts.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

derringer007

"Its An Outrage"
Glad you made the point that the Jets have only been winning v.s sub-500 teams, take away some smoke & mirror wins and the Jets are mediocre at best.

The Raiders do need to draft a QB which scares the $hitski out of me.

The Raiders are sitting at 6-6, 4-2 at home 2-4 away but shocking as it may seem Oakland is 4-0 in the division and are 3-2 the last five games.

Im not going to predict any stats or scores as im always way way off but i see the Raiders holding there own and winning v.s the Jaguars.
With speedster WR Jacoby Ford coming out of nowhere to be Oakland's #2 starter and with the solid running of D-Mac with over 1100 combined rushing and receiving yds & 7 TD's, along with the bruising running style of Micheal Bush make for a handful for any defense.

As always Sarge another great read
 

Cerberus

In Dog We Trust
As usual, good read Sarge.

Really can't wait til this weeks Oak/Jax matchup. Been thinking about this a little. Oaklands' season is on the line in this one. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain in this one. Really think they will come out pumped up and ready to play. Jax, with a 1 game lead over Indy, and playing Indy next week, has really not as much to play for and might be caught napping looking forward to next week. If both teams play like they did last week, Oakland wins it. Jax can't keep playing the 2nd half like they have been. In the 2nd half their playing not to lose and not to win. They need to open up the offence some if they want to have any chance in this game much less the playoffs.
 

Sgt John

Sith Lord of T&A
Like I said, I think DMac is going to be the difference in the ballgame. If Oakland comes to play, they have the ability to just run over the Jags.
 

Vicious_Machine

New Member
Hope the raiders win and going to be following that game closely. But I think the jags will come out on top. Something about the raiders not having won a meaningful game in so long (Remember the Pitts - Miami games when they were "in the division title" race).

"....but games like Monday Night are why Tom Brady is better than Peyton Manning."

DAMN STRAIGHT!!! He is the man!


And ouch on my boys, you picked them to beat Indy, and Dez basically did nothing in the last two games now! I think Philly wins too, but 10, yikes, your predicting an ass kicking. Hope Dallas puts up a better fight then that, but no idea how they slow that Philly O...
 

storminn0rm

Brewmaster
Like the new format Sarge

The Lions definitely need to put Best on IR and let him recover. There is no point to play him and let the turf toes get worse.
 

Cerberus

In Dog We Trust
Like I said, I think DMac is going to be the difference in the ballgame. If Oakland comes to play, they have the ability to just run over the Jags.


Yep i agree. Was hoping TN could have beat Indy last nite but just couldn't pull it off. A little more pressure on Jax now since Indy won it but they can't look past Oakland. If this game was in Oakland, i'd say Raiders win it easily. Being in Jax will keep it close, even tho they still had to sell 1700 tickets as of yesterday afternoon to avoid a blackout. This town, i just don't get it, in a playoff hunt for the first time in years and still can't sell out. See alot of fans or so called fans but they aren't going to the games. Kinda blame that on the economy here. Its just really bad.
 

Vicious_Machine

New Member
Sure hope Oakland and Run DMC go off!!

Did anybody catch the game last night, when I think Sanders said Garrard should be considered for MVP????? Ummmm... WHAT!!!
 

Vicious_Machine

New Member
The strong winds is always a scary thing to hear. But the last time I told somebody that Brady may not have a great game was last week against the Jets... 4 TDs later.... I will never doubt him again, lol
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
I've seen him skunked in the fantasy playoffs by high winds. Won a title one year against him playing in the wind. I set a red hot Palmer (boy that tells you it was a while back) and played ww pickup Shaun Hill who was unkown but in good weather. It won the game for me and the title.
 

Vicious_Machine

New Member
Was it in 2007 against the (same) Jets???

The year he was shattering records! And I faced him in the playoffs in a league and he crapped the bed thx to the winds!!

Nothing like beating a team that totally dominated your league thanks to some stupid luck with weather :nod:
 

Sgt John

Sith Lord of T&A
Sarges Week 14 Picks - How did I do???

Indianapolis @ Tennessee - Indy wins by 10. - Indy 30-28
Cleveland @ Buffalo - Cleveland by 6. - Buffalo 13-6
Green Bay @ Detroit - Green Bay by 20. - Detroit 7-3
NY Giants @ Minnesota - Giants by 1. - Pending
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 9. - Pittsburgh 23-7
Tampa Bay @ Washington - Tampa Bay by 4. - Tampa Bay 17-16
Atlanta @ Carolina - Atlanta by 17. - Atlanta 31-10
Oakland @ Jacksonville - Oakland by 8. - Jacksonville 38-31
St Louis @ New Orleans - New Orleans by 13. - New Orleans 31-13
Seattle @ San Francisco - Push. - San Francisco 40-21
New England @ Chicago - New England by 7. - New England 36-7
Miami @ NY Jets - Jets by 10. - Miami 10-6
Denver @ Arizona - Denver by 14. - Arizona 43-13
Kansas City @ San Diego - San Diego by 5. - San Diego 31-0
Philadelphia @ Dallas - Philadelphia by 10. - Philadelphia 30-27
Baltimore @ Houston - Baltimore by 7. - Pending

Well, I got the winner right on 8 games, but only covered my spread in 5 of them. Not too bad.
 
Top