Run Defense

[ExperiencedRookie]

Hey Outlaws. I need your help.

I'm going to be doing a strength of schedule post/article based on run defenses. I want to use a ranking system I use which combines multiple rushing stats to rank every team's rushing defense.

Another factor I want to use to weigh this is additions and losses in the run defense game. This is where I would like the assistance of you Outlaws.

For example :

Albert Haynesworth to Washington. I claim that it would be fair to drop Tennessee 3 spots in the rankings and raise Washington 3 spots in the rankings based on this 1 move. I would consider this a MAJOR move BTW.

Any Outlaws have player moves they would like to add to aid me in this process? Has your team added a big run stopper at DT or a hole clogger at MLB? Has your team lost a true impact player? If so, then please post here and we can discuss.

Also, please disregard rookie additions, they are too hard to predict.

 

[WesDawg]

Seattle moves up for 2 reasons. Julian Peterson is out, and Cory Redding/Aaron Curry are in. I know you said to disregard rookies, but I'll maintain that he's a day 1 starter at a high level and will impact that aspect of their D. Not to mention that Peterson carves his niche in pass defense where he's been one of the best LB's at that for years as opposed to a tackling machine.

Also, if the StarCaps issues linger on and there's suspensions maintained, Minnesota's elite run D moves down several notches due to the absence of the Williams mountain range.

Maybe the Ravens declining slightly due to the departure of Bart Scott and Rex Ryan?

Sorry that's all I could pop out without researching. LOL

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

That's all good stuff Wes.

2 spots up for Seattle seems a bit much for a rookie in place of a guy like Peterson, I might change that to 1 spot. Could be a 2 though.

Bart Scott and Rex Ryan is certainly good for a 1 spot change.

The StarCaps suspensions will only change the rush D for the games they are suspended, not for the Run D ranking for the whole season. Once the final suspensions are announced I will adjust to the ranking system based on which teams play them those weeks. How much of a drop in ranking should that be for those 3-4 weeks? I'm thinking it has to be 7-10 spots down the rankings.

Good start Wes! Thanks bud. I hope everyone joins in.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

Albert Haynesworth to Washington. I claim that it would be fair to drop Tennessee 3 spots in the rankings and raise Washington 3 spots in the rankings based on this 1 move. I would consider this a MAJOR move BTW.

Also, please disregard rookie additions, they are too hard to predict.

1. What is your analysis/basis for the 3 spot drop? Seems highly subjective if you do not incorporate objective measurements.

2. Disregarding rookies is a fatal detriment to your system.

The StarCaps suspensions will only change the rush D for the games they are suspended, not for the Run D ranking for the whole season. Once the final suspensions are announced I will adjust to the ranking system based on which teams play them those weeks. How much of a drop in ranking should that be for those 3-4 weeks? I'm thinking it has to be 7-10 spots down the rankings.

3. The suspensions if enforced, will impact more than just the rush D and extend beyond the 3-4 weeks.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

1. What is your analysis/basis for the 3 spot drop? Seems highly subjective if you do not incorporate objective measurements.

2. Disregarding rookies is a fatal detriment to your system.




3. The suspensions if enforced, will impact more than just the rush D and extend beyond the 3-4 weeks.

1. My analysis is that Haynesworth is such an impact player on the defensive line that without him the unit doesn't work as well as a whole, and with him a unit improves as a whole. Is it not fair to drop/raise a run defense based on a player of his stature?

2. I chose to disregard rookies for a few reasons. The 1st of which is that every homer on this board will claim that whatever rookie they added to the D-line or LB corps will instantly improve their run D. The 2nd is that in reality, only about 10-25% of the rookies drafted in impact roles will ACTUALLY make an impact big enough to move a defense up. I choose to side with the 75% of rookies who won't change anything, case in point Glenn Dorsey.

3. The suspensions will certainly impact more than just the run D, but I'm not examining anything else right now. As far as extending beyond 3-4 weeks, I can't handicap that well enough to make it a science. You're right, it may take the unit an extra week or 2 to really gel, but having them on the field is a world of difference to not having them on the field.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Come on Outlaws, give me some input. Sarge, ChrisSlabaugh, RC, Miller, Mike, EF, Cooley, Phi, RH, Bodey, all you IBLers, EVERYBODY! Gimme some input on big player moves and changes.

 

[chrisslabaugh]

I would drop the Packers due to the 3-4 learning curve. They may have a grasp of it by the end of the year, but I see some big rushing games against them early on that might skew the stats. Just a hunch.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I would drop the Packers due to the 3-4 learning curve. They may have a grasp of it by the end of the year, but I see some big rushing games against them early on that might skew the stats. Just a hunch.

Does the same go for the Chiefs as well? They're also moving to a 3-4 this year.

Does this historically have a steep learning curve?

 

[chrisslabaugh]

I think the Chiefs were pretty damn low in rushing D last year so not much room for them to drop. As far as historic #'s on 3-4 learning curve I'm not sure but I will see if I can find anything.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I think the Chiefs were pretty damn low in rushing D last year so not much room for them to drop. As far as historic #'s on 3-4 learning curve I'm not sure but I will see if I can find anything.

Thanks Chris. You brought up a good point as well with the changing of schemes. Another thing that may up or downgrade a team rush defense is the addition of loss of coaches.

Could Tennessee see a small dip with the loss of their D coordinator?

Does his moving to coach the Lions give them a small uptick?

Another other teams that saw a change one way or the other worth looking at?

 

[Cooley Cadets]

1. My analysis is that Haynesworth is such an impact player on the defensive line that without him the unit doesn't work as well as a whole, and with him a unit improves as a whole. Is it not fair to drop/raise a run defense based on a player of his stature?

I am not dismissing Al and it is possible he is worthy of a jump you are describing but it is definitely not a given. Pretty hard to analyze when you make a blanket statement like that without any indication of the teams being leapfrogged in either direction.

2. I chose to disregard rookies for a few reasons. The 1st of which is that every homer on this board will claim that whatever rookie they added to the D-line or LB corps will instantly improve their run D. The 2nd is that in reality, only about 10-25% of the rookies drafted in impact roles will ACTUALLY make an impact big enough to move a defense up.

Considering it is your strength of schedule piece why let critics in the peanut gallery like me, who will 2nd guess you, scare you off of including those 10-25%?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I am not dismissing Al and it is possible he is worthy of a jump you are describing but it is definitely not a given. Pretty hard to analyze when you make a blanket statement like that without any indication of the teams being leapfrogged in either direction.




Considering it is your strength of schedule piece why let critics in the peanut gallery like me, who will 2nd guess you, scare you off of including those 10-25%?

I've just finished the rankings based only on last years numbers alone. Wash and Tenn are actually tied for fantasy PPG allowed to RBs. If a player like Haynesworth moves from 1 even team to the other, I feel the right move would be to seperate those 2 teams. I can't see Tenn being as dominant against the run without him, and I see Wash being even more dominant against it with him.

I can't really include the 10-25% if I don't know exactly which ones they are. I'm sure every fan wants to say that the defensive players their teams selected in the draft are going to fall into that 25%, but it's likely the opposite. Too much room for error when including rookies. Plus, if every rookie upgraded a defense, that would mean every defense is upgrading, and we all know that just isn't possible. Someone has to climb, someone has to fall. The numbers from the top team to the bottom team will likely mirror the numbers from the year before, just with different teams holding different positions.

 

[WesDawg]

Learning curve for a 34 isn't typically the issue for a team changing. The basic principles and roles are the same, especially for the secondary. The usual rough spots occur with teams with mismatching personnel. You won't find many effective 34 fronts with 260-270 lb. D-ends, for example. You essentially need one massive plugger at the single DT spot, and 2 big (280lb+) DE's. Those guys are for one purpose: Tie up as many lineman as possible while your LB's fly around and make plays. All 4 LB's can be smallish as opposed to having one 250 pounder in the middle.
There's alot of other differences from a 43, but if you have the right type of guys on your roster already, it's not a bad switch.
KC should be ok because they have some playmaking LB's and 3 athletic big boys up front already.

 

[Coachnorm]

The usual rough spots occur with teams with mismatching personnel. You won't find many effective 3-4 fronts with 260-270 lb. D-ends, for example. You essentially need one massive plugger at the single DT spot, and 2 big (280lb+) DE's. Those guys are for one purpose: Tie up as many lineman as possible while your LB's fly around and make plays. All 4 LB's can be smallish as opposed to having one 250 pounder in the middle.

Very nice, Wes. You don't need the brute LB in the middle any longer, if you have the massive plugger in the middle. Finding the big run stopper in the middle of the line can be the biggest challange of the switch. more teams are moving towards 3-4 schemes and the massive nosetackles required for the switch don't grow on trees, so to speak. Getting or developing that nose tackle is probably the most difficult part of the switch. There isn't really that much curve in the learning of new assignments it's more getting the right personell for the change. Your LBs are more coverage types and pass rushers from the outside edge now. Your former big Brute middle linebacker may be less suited to his new role. If your Nosetackle does not occupy enough lineman then your have Guards leaking into your now lighter linebacking corp and also picking up safety blitzs which are usually more effective in a 3-4.

 

[Miller]

Cincy's D should be improved on the run side. DT rotation was solidified with the addition of Tank Johnson. 2nd year under Mike Zimmer should help a defense that showed great improvement last season. Keith Rivers will be back who was having a great season prior to injury last year. They resigned Crocker and added Roy Williams at safety who both should be able to help out in the run game. They did not have any subtractions that will negatively impact their run D.

 

[Coachnorm]

Cincy's D should be improved on the run side. DT rotation was solidified with the addition of Tank Johnson. 2nd year under Mike Zimmer should help a defense that showed great improvement last season. Keith Rivers will be back who was having a great season prior to injury last year. They resigned Crocker and added Roy Williams at safety who both should be able to help out in the run game. They did not have any subtractions that will negatively impact their run D.

I agree, the Bengals should be on the upswing side this year. All addditions and no subtractions.

Through the years I have always liked the Bengals as a backup or situational fantasy D. Some years they have been a better situational D then others but most of the time used at the right time they have been great. They have always had a tendency to get moved on each series for a couple of first downs but then become real ballhawkers and take the ball away a lot. They usually over the years compress well. As the other team starts to get close and the field shrinks they hold alot of teams to FGs. While some years are better and some worse for the most part during the last 10 years they are a nice D to have in your pocket.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Cincy's D should be improved on the run side. DT rotation was solidified with the addition of Tank Johnson. 2nd year under Mike Zimmer should help a defense that showed great improvement last season. Keith Rivers will be back who was having a great season prior to injury last year. They resigned Crocker and added Roy Williams at safety who both should be able to help out in the run game. They did not have any subtractions that will negatively impact their run D.

The additions of Tank and Roy should help in the run game. I'll agree with you here Miller and give Cincy a small boost. Thanks for the input.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Any teams out there who lost a key component to their rush D?

 

[Coachnorm]

Bears Cornerback Charles Tillman practiced for the first time today since having shoulder surgery in January. Tillman has 20 career interceptions in seven years and started 15 games for the Bears last season. In other Bears defensive news, defensive tackle Tommie Harris who has nursed multiple knee and hamstring injuries over the past three years plans to be 100 percent by training camp.

 

[Bayton]

bucs lost kiffin, brooks, buchanon, carter, haye and kept.... SIMS. dfense scheme change. teribowl d-line athleticism and experience. and likely "growing" ofense that wont score alot. bucs go down. pardon the blatent disregard for all things corect english. 15 hours in airport to not leave yet & typing on phone awSomE!!!