Poll: Colts RBs: Addai, Fantasy Has Been Vs Rookie Donald Brown

[Runnik's Hambones]

People are getting side tracked here. The point of my comparison is to put Addai in his proper placement compared to expectations and actual production. He was a top-5/10 draft pick the last 2 years. Edge was rated at about the 20th RB(estimated) last year and not to far off the year before. Addai never was a top back, it was only perceived he was due to his production as a backup and knowing what James had done prior as the Colts feature back. The extrapolation of his rookie numbers to those as if he was a full time starter are top 5 pick worthy. He just never produced as such.
Since the lack of receptions being included in the prior post was being discussed, ill add it to this one so you can see the total picture.

Addai
YEAR TEAM G REC YDS AVG TD Receiving
2006 IND 16 40 325 8.1 1
2007 IND 15 41 364 8.9 3
2008 IND 12 25 206 8.2 2

YEAR TEAM G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Rushing
2006 IND 16 226 1081 4.8 41 7
2007 IND 15 261 1072 4.1 23 12
2008 IND 12 155 544 3.5 23 5

Edge James
YEAR TEAM G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Rushing
2006 ARI 16 337 1159 3.4 18 6
2007 ARI 16 324 1222 3.8 27 7
2008 ARI 13 133 514 3.9 35 3

YEAR TEAM G REC YDS AVG TD Receiving
2006 ARI 16 38 217 5.7 0
2007 ARI 16 24 204 8.5 0
2008 ARI 13 12 85 7.1 0

Edge, 3405 total yards(2895 rush, 510 rec) - 16 tds
Addai - 3592 total yards(2697 rush, 895 rec) - 30 tds

That equates to an average difference of 62 TOTAL yards per season. Thats not even 4yds per GAME!

Yes, the Td difference is almost 2:1. Yes, the reception yards for Addai is more, but that about evens out the total yards for both. HOLY CRAP, what a great comparison! To say that the numbers don't even come close... the totals are almost identical with the exception of tds.
This is just a case of perception verses reality and they do not compare. The reality demands re-evaluating of those perceptions.


Yes, I did watch the Colts last year and for the previous several years. You are correct about Browns role. Last season both Addai and Rhodes had 155 rushes, while Rhodes had 20 more receptions. There is a lot of opportunity for Brown to produce due to the fragility of Addai.

Although, I do disagree with you on another point. When they had Edge, James had a higher percentage of total team carries than any other back in the league for a long time. They were looking for the next Edge. Thats why they drafted Addai the same offseason they let James walk and thats why they let Rhodes go the first time. They believed he could be that guy. They rotated backs last season because they tried to give Addai all the carries the year before and he couldn't handle it. The drafting of Brown again just proves they don't trust Addai as the sole option as the feature back.

Addai remains the starter throughout the year, but I do see Brown out producing him at the end, assuming Brown can pass protect and Peyton trusts him. (they drafted him so I assume he can)

:thrash:

Yet again, great comparison! Fantasy wise, Addai is the man because of TDs. As far as yards, Edge can produce just as well.

 

[WesDawg]

I get the feeling someone's about to "lose their balance... again" and "accidentally fall down the stairs... again" Keep it strong, men! LOL

Now, back to the Addai/Brown question. All things being equal, I think this has the look of a D-Will/J-Stew arrangement in Carolina, circa 2008. The only difference being that Addai/Brown are much closer in skillsets than the Panthers duo. The only wildcard is Addai's durability, which has been somewhat Westbrook-like over the past 2 seasons. Meaning he always seemed to be a little dinged up, but played through what he could. What does it mean for '09? I'm going with a 65-35 split in touches favoring Addai with production to match. (IF he stays healthy) The Colts don't use a fullback all that much, so I also expect to see alot of formations with 2 WR's, Dallas Clark, and both RB's deployed out of the backfield.
How fun will THAT be to defend?
You're probably saying "Can we get some projections??" Sure. LOL
Addai- 1100 rushing - 450 receiving - 12 total TD's
Brown- 750 rushing - 300 receiving - 7 total TD's

I don't think Brown will go as far after Addai in redraft leagues as people think. If Addai continues to be banged up or misses significant time, Brown becomes a monster.

 

[Coachnorm]

The great Great Edge Mystery has always been his pass catching. If you take out his 6 game injury season you have a RB who averaged 55 catches per season over 6 seasons.

Then he goes to The Cardinals and it is WTH are The Cardinals thinking?

This has been one of the biggest football Mysteries for me.

 

[Miller]

I see Addai being kept fresher by being spelled by Brown. Addai will still be more productive, but Brown is nice in future value terms. I think you'll see an average of 6-8 carries a game for him this year.