Poll: Colts RBs: Addai, Fantasy Has Been Vs Rookie Donald Brown

[Coachnorm]

While we have another thread with a poll about Two top rookie RBs going I thought this Vet Vs Rookie matchup was interesting.

The Colts grabbed Rookie RB Donald Brown of Conn. and since Rhodes has moved on a potential battle has been set in motion.

I have seen some who say Addai is a has been who won't every be a top Back again. I really don't by into that notion myself but it is something to be considered.

So what do you think? It is early of course. But these two guys may be going pretty close in your redraft league. Or maybe they shouldn't? Pick the Colts back that does the best this year.

 

[Fire]

I don't think Addai is a has been, but the Colts spending their 1st round pick on Brown makes me wonder if they know something I don't. I'll stick with Addai for now.

On a side note, UConn sure must be proud of the players they lost to the NFL this year.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

While I wouldn't be surprised if Brown has a good season, even more points than Addai, I'm not ready to call Joe a "has been." I think running down hill, Addai has Brown beat, but where Brown rules is catching out of the back field.

 

[Bayton]

I wouldn't call him a has been either. However, I would call him a never was. I have owned him since his rookie season and each one following and I've soured on him. He has a promising rookie year, 1000yrds. He followed that up by all accounts a dissapointing 2nd year and another failed to meet expectations in the 3rd. He is constantly nursing a bruise here, or was hit too hard on a play and will take the rest of the game off. I was and am a fan of his. He is smart. I enjoy watching him run and his shiftyness. However, the colts were close to last in yards per game and attempt last year. There are other teams with worse o-line problems than the colts who did Better than them. I wont be drafting him as my starter this year. But, I'll be honest, I haven't been able to see much of Brown running the ball, but the colts are not sold on Addai as a jamesesque workhorse, evident by bringing Rhodes back last year and drafting Brown this year. Addai is not a workhorse back and I dont think he will be in the next few years.

I'd rate them about the same for this year with an edge to Addai initially then Brown as the injuries start piling up for Addai. Addai only has had 7 total 100yd rushing games in 3 years. He barely tops 20+ carries.

Just by comparison
E. James Ari att yrd avg td
2006 ARI 16 337 1159 3.4 6
2007 ARI 16 324 1222 3.8 7
2008 ARI 13 133 514 3.9 3

J Addai
YEAR G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
2006 IND 16 226 1081 4.8 7
2007 IND 15 261 1072 4.1 12
2008 IND 12 155 544 3.5 5

Edge doesnt look so bad now does he

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

I wouldn't call him a has been either. However, I would call him a never was. I was owned him since his rookie season and each one following and I've soured on him. He has a promising rookie year, 1000yrds. He followed that up by all accounts a dissapointing 2nd year and another failed to meet expectations in the 3rd. He is constantly nursing a bruise here, or was hit too hard on a play and will take the rest of the game off. I was and am a fan of his. He is smart. I enjoy watching him run and his shiftyness. However, the colts were close to last in yards per game and attempt last year. There are other teams with worse o-line problems than the colts who did Better than them. I wont be drafting him as my starter this year. But, I'll be honest, I haven't been able to see much of Brown running the ball, but the colts are not sold on Addai as a jamesesque workhorse, evident by bringing Rhodes back last year and drafting Brown this year. Addai is not a workhorse back and I dont think he will be in the next few years.

I'd rate them about the same for this year with an edge to Addai initially then Brown as the injuries start piling up for Addai. Addai only has had 7 total 100yd rushing games in 3 years. He barely tops 20+ carries.

Just by comparison
E. James Ari att yrd avg td
2006 ARI 16 337 1159 3.4 6
2007 ARI 16 324 1222 3.8 7
2008 ARI 13 133 514 3.9 3

J Addai
YEAR G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
2006 IND 16 226 1081 4.8 7
2007 IND 15 261 1072 4.1 12
2008 IND 12 155 544 3.5 5

Edge doesnt look so bad now does he

Holy crap. Well put, Ryan. I love the comparison. You're spot on, Edge actually seems to have had MORE production than Addai. I'm going to have to look up their catches as well, because that's where we will probably see the Addai numbers rise over James'.

The issue is the carries per year. James was more efficient. Higher average than Edge.

 

[chrisslabaugh]

I wouldn't call him a has been either. However, I would call him a never was. I was owned him since his rookie season and each one following and I've soured on him. He has a promising rookie year, 1000yrds. He followed that up by all accounts a dissapointing 2nd year and another failed to meet expectations in the 3rd. He is constantly nursing a bruise here, or was hit too hard on a play and will take the rest of the game off. I was and am a fan of his. He is smart. I enjoy watching him run and his shiftyness. However, the colts were close to last in yards per game and attempt last year. There are other teams with worse o-line problems than the colts who did Better than them. I wont be drafting him as my starter this year. But, I'll be honest, I haven't been able to see much of Brown running the ball, but the colts are not sold on Addai as a jamesesque workhorse, evident by bringing Rhodes back last year and drafting Brown this year. Addai is not a workhorse back and I dont think he will be in the next few years.

I'd rate them about the same for this year with an edge to Addai initially then Brown as the injuries start piling up for Addai. Addai only has had 7 total 100yd rushing games in 3 years. He barely tops 20+ carries.

Just by comparison
E. James Ari att yrd avg td
2006 ARI 16 337 1159 3.4 6
2007 ARI 16 324 1222 3.8 7
2008 ARI 13 133 514 3.9 3

J Addai
YEAR G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
2006 IND 16 226 1081 4.8 7
2007 IND 15 261 1072 4.1 12
2008 IND 12 155 544 3.5 5

Edge doesnt look so bad now does he

You fail to add the 500 extra receiving yards and 6 receiving TD's that Addai had in those 3 years. So Addai's TD's are 30-16 vs. Edge in that span. I'd say Edge does not come close to Addai's #'s

 

[chrisslabaugh]

Holy crap. Well put, Ryan. I love the comparison. You're spot on, Edge actually seems to have had MORE production than Addai. I'm going to have to look up their catches as well, because that's where we will probably see the Addai numbers rise over James'.

The issue is the carries per year. James was more efficient. Higher average than Edge.

Wrong

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

Did you read what I wrote? Or did you jump to a conclusion? Take a look again and you'll see that my last sentence of the first paragraph states that Addai's production comes from his catches, which is more than James.

 

[chrisslabaugh]

You said "Well put, excellent comaprison. Edge has been more productive." Not true

 

[storminn0rm]

I don't know if Brown will take over fully for Addai this year. But I think the Colts might move to a RBBC this year though. Addai was injured last year. Is he fully recovered or is he on the decline? By the Colts taking Brown with a first round pick, odds are Addai is not fully recovered and they will split carries. So Brown might edge past Addai in stats this year. If Addai gets injured again though, Brown will clean up.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

You said "Well put, excellent comaprison. Edge has been more productive." Not true

Do you honestly think that a 3.9 avg isn't productive? I think I've raised this argument on this site before. I believe that running the ball, Edge could easily be a thousand yard back still. He just needs more than 133 carries. To rack up over 500 yards off of 130 carries is production, my friend. You double his carries to 260, he's over 1K yards and will have at least 5+ TDs on the ground.

On the ground, Edge can be nearly as productive as Addai. Last year Addai was injured, so healthy, I think he's a better back. But I don't think Edge hasn't produced, I'm actually impressed with his numbers and I don't understand how you can look at them and not be. But like I said, Addai's production sails past Edges when you look at catches as well. There, James can't touch Joseph.

 

[Phicinfan]

I personally think the Brown draft pick was for the future, not necessarily this year. They have lost alot of depth in Indy. Plus you have had a history lately with Addai not being able to stay healthy. Not sure of his contract status either...but my guess is Brown will only get a few carries this year.....spelling Addai...and will probably take over next year.

 

[Da Bomb]

didnt anyone watch the colts last year? this team is not looking for its next edge. they love playing two fresh backs and switching them out each series, going with the hot hand. this is the new way in the nfl, and donald brown will just be taking dominic rhodes' touches this year.

 

[Fire]

Hey, Da Bomb:

Pick the Colts back that does the best this year.

 

[chrisslabaugh]

Do you honestly think that a 3.9 avg isn't productive? I think I've raised this argument on this site before. I believe that running the ball, Edge could easily be a thousand yard back still. He just needs more than 133 carries. To rack up over 500 yards off of 130 carries is production, my friend. You double his carries to 260, he's over 1K yards and will have at least 5+ TDs on the ground.

On the ground, Edge can be nearly as productive as Addai. Last year Addai was injured, so healthy, I think he's a better back. But I don't think Edge hasn't produced, I'm actually impressed with his numbers and I don't understand how you can look at them and not be. But like I said, Addai's production sails past Edges when you look at catches as well. There, James can't touch Joseph.

That's my point. Either its a good comparison or its not. Don't say Holy Crap what a good comparison on one hand and then say but on the other hand its not even close. When you factor in Addai's whole body of work, Edge doesn't come close to the production that Addai has. Hence not a good comparison.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

That's my point. Either its a good comparison or its not. Don't say Holy Crap what a good comparison on one hand and then say but on the other hand its not even close. When you factor in Addai's whole body of work, Edge doesn't come close to the production that Addai has. Hence not a good comparison.

This is what I said:

Holy crap. Well put, Ryan. I love the comparison.

The reason I love the comparison, is because it puts things into perspective. For one, it says what I've been saying on this site all year long. I believe that Edge can still produce. I followed that up by saying that Addai's production goes further than just his on the ground work. By taking a look at his catches, he out does Edge by a lot.

To put it simply, Chris, a comparison of their work on the ground, is good. It shows both players strengths, and their weaknesses.

 

[Da Bomb]

Hey, Da Bomb:

i voted for brown because he will be drafted significantly later imo, and will be worth similar but more consistent value.

 

[chrisslabaugh]

The comparison of their ground game wasn't good either. James carries were much higher, his YPC was much lower along with his TD's being lower. Not a good comparison all around

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

The comparison of their ground game wasn't good either. James carries were much higher, his YPC was much lower along with his TD's being lower. Not a good comparison all around

You're obviously referring to 2006-2007. 2008, Addai wasn't completely healthy. You're also assuming that I'm saying Edge is better than Addai. I have no idea what's giving you that idea. I would take Addai over Edge, every time I could. My point is that when you look at Edge's numbers, they're not all that far off from Addai's. He's well over 1K yards and has a decent average for a 31 yr old back in the NFL. That's why it's a good comparison, it puts Edge up to someone who is clearly better at this point in their careers, and shows that he's actually not that far off.

I don't see how you're skipping around the point. Which is simply: Edge can give your team a 3.9 avg back. 220 attempts can grant you about 700+ yards.

Then again, I have no idea why I'm explaining myself. I have no idea why you think it's a bad comparison. Yes, Addai's numbers are better. No one, not I, not you, not anyone on this thread has said that Edge's numbers looks better. But for some reason you seem to be assuming that that is what I said.

 

[Bayton]

People are getting side tracked here. The point of my comparison is to put Addai in his proper placement compared to expectations and actual production. He was a top-5/10 draft pick the last 2 years. Edge was rated at about the 20th RB(estimated) last year and not to far off the year before. Addai never was a top back, it was only perceived he was due to his production as a backup and knowing what James had done prior as the Colts feature back. The extrapolation of his rookie numbers to those as if he was a full time starter are top 5 pick worthy. He just never produced as such.
Since the lack of receptions being included in the prior post was being discussed, ill add it to this one so you can see the total picture.

Addai
YEAR TEAM G REC YDS AVG TD Receiving
2006 IND 16 40 325 8.1 1
2007 IND 15 41 364 8.9 3
2008 IND 12 25 206 8.2 2

YEAR TEAM G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Rushing
2006 IND 16 226 1081 4.8 41 7
2007 IND 15 261 1072 4.1 23 12
2008 IND 12 155 544 3.5 23 5

Edge James
YEAR TEAM G ATT YDS AVG LNG TD Rushing
2006 ARI 16 337 1159 3.4 18 6
2007 ARI 16 324 1222 3.8 27 7
2008 ARI 13 133 514 3.9 35 3

YEAR TEAM G REC YDS AVG TD Receiving
2006 ARI 16 38 217 5.7 0
2007 ARI 16 24 204 8.5 0
2008 ARI 13 12 85 7.1 0

Edge, 3405 total yards(2895 rush, 510 rec) - 16 tds
Addai - 3592 total yards(2697 rush, 895 rec) - 30 tds

That equates to an average difference of 62 TOTAL yards per season. Thats not even 4yds per GAME!

Yes, the Td difference is almost 2:1. Yes, the reception yards for Addai is more, but that about evens out the total yards for both. HOLY CRAP, what a great comparison! To say that the numbers don't even come close... the totals are almost identical with the exception of tds.
This is just a case of perception verses reality and they do not compare. The reality demands re-evaluating of those perceptions.

didnt anyone watch the colts last year? this team is not looking for its next edge. they love playing two fresh backs and switching them out each series, going with the hot hand. this is the new way in the nfl, and donald brown will just be taking dominic rhodes' touches this year.

Yes, I did watch the Colts last year and for the previous several years. You are correct about Browns role. Last season both Addai and Rhodes had 155 rushes, while Rhodes had 20 more receptions. There is a lot of opportunity for Brown to produce due to the fragility of Addai.

Although, I do disagree with you on another point. When they had Edge, James had a higher percentage of total team carries than any other back in the league for a long time. They were looking for the next Edge. Thats why they drafted Addai the same offseason they let James walk and thats why they let Rhodes go the first time. They believed he could be that guy. They rotated backs last season because they tried to give Addai all the carries the year before and he couldn't handle it. The drafting of Brown again just proves they don't trust Addai as the sole option as the feature back.

Addai remains the starter throughout the year, but I do see Brown out producing him at the end, assuming Brown can pass protect and Peyton trusts him. (they drafted him so I assume he can)