Percy Harvin - Draft Projection - NFL Impact

[Sgt John]

Percy Harvin
​

Wide Reciever - Florida
​

• Height - 5'11"
• Weight - 196
• Projected 40 Time - 4.32 - Official Combine Time - 4.41

2008 Stats:

• 40 Receptions
• 644 Receiving yards
• 7 Receiving TD's
• 659 rush yards
• 10 Rushing TD's

Draft Projection - Round 1-2

NFL Impact

Gator fans will tell you Harvin is the greatest thing this side of Tim Tebow, a guy who can do it all from anywhere on the field. Harvin, when healthy, has been a machine for the Gators, running like a tailback, throwing it, and catching it on the way to two national championships. What concerns me, and many GM's, is the forementioned health. Harvin has missed numerous games due to injury in his Florida tenure, and this alone drops his stock. I look for Harvin to become a good 3rd down back at the next level and work in the return game. What do you think of Percy? Discuss.

[nomedia]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt68j3UjyZI[/nomedia]

 

[Miller]

I just don't see harvin as any type of RB. I think he's a slot type WR who offers some flexibility to run the wildcat or line-up in the backfield at times. But to make his money in the NFL he needs to develop as a WR. His durability is a concern, but someone will take a stab at him.

Harvin will likely come off the board early 2nd as his versatility gives teams many options.

 

[RLLD]

All I see is end around reverses.....:bored:

 

[Miller]

Harvin did not show the speed that many thought he would. He came in at 4.41 which is a far cry from his reported low 4.3 speed.

 

[GRS0002]

I think Donte Stallworth... I mean Percy Harvin won't be anymore then a WR#3 slot guy at best and he won't be on the field enough to even fullfill that. People are talking about downgrading Crabtree because of his injury, but Crabtree plays injured. Harvin is injured all the time and the same people rank him in the top WR's. If you get KR yards, he might be worth something, but lets look past the Gator hype. There is another Gator WR (Louis Murphy)in the Draft that I believe will be 3 times the WR that Harvin is in three years.

 

[RLLD]

I think Donte Stallworth... I mean Percy Harvin won't be anymore then a WR#3 slot guy at best and he won't be on the field enough to even fullfill that. People are talking about downgrading Crabtree because of his injury, but Crabtree plays injured. Harvin is injured all the time and the same people rank him in the top WR's. If you get KR yards, he might be worth something, but lets look past the Gator hype. There is another Gator WR (Louis Murphy)in the Draft that I believe will be 3 times the WR that Harvin is in three years.

Agree completely. :nod:

 

[dukdown]

ya, no way. Harvin is a million times more a competitor than Stallworth is. And he's a winner. I'd take a Percy Harvin on my team in a heartbeat.

 

[GRS0002]

If the Gators didn't play a gimik Offense, Harvin would be a 5th round pick as a kick returner and project WR, but only considered a WR because of his speed (and even that wasn't all it was hyped to be). If their QB threw down field, Luis Murphy would be a top 5 WR and a second round pick. Tim Tebow and Harvin worked well in a non-NFL type offense, but in the real world NFL... it doesn't translate. Not to mention that Harvin misses games, so he's not a gamer. Donte Stallworth might be exaggerating, but it has a basis. Saying that Harvin is a winner is a stretch for me too. When it counted as a WR in the 2008 bowl game, didn't he have like 50 yards as a WR when it counted. The gimik plays got him a lot of yards as a RB, but were talking projecting to the NFL... not in next years Gator O.

Harvin 4.41 forty time 5'11" - slot WR/KR
Murphy 4.43 forty time 6'3" - possible actual impact WR that can out run and out reach CB's. Size will be deadly in the red zone.

To each his own, but I wouldn't draft Harvin in my dynasty draft until maybe the 4th round (obviously some one will take him before that so I won't have to deal with him at all). There are too many WR's in the draft that better size and speed that translate much better then Harvin IMO.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

If the Gators didn't play a gimik Offense, Harvin would be a 5th round pick as a kick returner and project WR, but only considered a WR because of his speed (and even that wasn't all it was hyped to be). If their QB threw down field, Luis Murphy would be a top 5 WR and a second round pick. Tim Tebow and Harvin worked well in a non-NFL type offense, but in the real world NFL... it doesn't translate. Not to mention that Harvin misses games, so he's not a gamer. Donte Stallworth might be exaggerating, but it has a basis. Saying that Harvin is a winner is a stretch for me too. When it counted as a WR in the 2008 bowl game, didn't he have like 50 yards as a WR when it counted. The gimik plays got him a lot of yards as a RB, but were talking projecting to the NFL... not in next years Gator O.

Harvin 4.41 forty time 5'11" - slot WR/KR
Murphy 4.43 forty time 6'3" - possible actual impact WR that can out run and out reach CB's. Size will be deadly in the red zone.

To each his own, but I wouldn't draft Harvin in my dynasty draft until maybe the 4th round (obviously some one will take him before that so I won't have to deal with him at all). There are too many WR's in the draft that better size and speed that translate much better then Harvin IMO.

Well said, and I could not agree more.

 

[dukdown]

ok, under the brightest lights, playing for the Championship, with a hairline fracture of his ankle, Harvin gains 171 yards from scrimage, with a touchdown. Tell me again that he is not an NFL quality competitor. Oh, and his 4.41 was faster than Maclin's 4.43. Murphy missed the Senior Bowl with a knee issue. I think he's a 2nd day pick, maybe in the 4th round. Harvin is being talked about middle first round. But I guess you're obviously smarter than the people who do this for a living.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

No one claimed to be smarter than the scouts. I'm just saying that when I see Harvin, he doesn't look like a good NFL player to me. I've been wrong before and I wouldn't be surprised if I am here. But if I were a GM, I don't know if I'd be able to pick him.

 

[dukdown]

I guess my thing is, is people talk abou the NFL like it's this foreign version of the college game. I think you'll be surprised to start seeing the NFL more and more resembling the spread game of the collegiate ranks. No one was really using RBBC until Auburn, LSU, and USC popularized it, and now almost everyone does it. Talents like Percy Harvin and Pat White are going to start more and more finidnig a very valuable place in the professional game. And the fact is, though he wasn't able to demonstrate it as much under Meyer's spread, is that Harvin can play wide receiver. He makes tough catches over the middle (somewhere I don't remember seeing a lot of Louis Murphy), runs it up into traffic, makes people miss, and can break tackles. He was the #1 wr coming out of H.S. He scored 17 touchdowns in 12 games this year. He's a straight up stud football player. That's what I saw watching S.E.C. football, which I hear is a pretty decent conference.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

Fiar enough. You're right, NFL football has been a different game than the college level, and I can buy into your thinking here. Hell, the college level resembled the pro level for more years than not. The quick, spread offensive style started from the bottom level up. There were a select few of players that were faster and more skilled than the 95% of players in little league and in HS. At the college level the crappier players were weeded out and it became about 80% of players that weren't as good as those select speedsters. When that happened the spread made it's way to the college level, almost following these athletic players on their way up. The NFL has made itself the breaking point thus far of that type of football because of how good the level of skill set is at every single position. Then again, players like Percy Harvin and Pat White have had the opportunity to continue to grow in that spread-type of offense all the way to the combine.

Again, I refuse to consider myself an expert on the subject, but in the past I've only noticed those players unable to compete at the NFL level.

The most recent example I have is Reggie Bush. He's a damn good player, even on the NFL level, but he's almost nothing compared to what he did in college.

 

[GRS0002]

I'm not claiming to be an NFL expert in any way. I'm talking Fantasy Football, which is what I thought this site was based on. The NFL considers many things when they chose a player that do not factor into the FF world. Considering most people don't get return yards, but this is a big part of the NFL game. The NFL has to draft role players that do not show up in the FF. The NFL will take a less skilled WR who is a more polished player because they need help right now and pass up the guy with all the skills to be a top WR, but needs to learn better routes and maybe 2 years away from helping.

If you don't remember L.Murphy, it's because you only remember the gimik part of the Gater's Off, where a WR gets a 100 yards rushing in multiple games and plays RB running offtackle. Although the NFL is not another world, WR's don't play RB and they don't rush for more yards then they catch on a regular basis. That's the gimik part. GB played a lot of spread and none of their WR's have anywhere near as many rushing yards as they do receiving.

Reception yards last year (stats minus the gimik part)
Murphy - 38 recpt - 655 yards - 7 TD's
Harvin - 40 recpt 644 yards - 7 TD's
Their speed is comparable and their WR stats are comparable.

Where someone goes in the NFL draft doesnt not mean a lot once in the NFL. It just means they get paid more or less on draft day. If Seatle takes Crabtree in the first and the Giants take Murphy in the third, both will have a chance to impress. There is a very long list of NFL first round WR terds that I won't bother to list, but I believe there are more first round busts then stars that lived up to their projection. Many WR's in the game were not first round picks, so comparing their projected draft position in the NFL draft really means anything to me. When I compare the players... Murphy is a little more raw, but when I project them Murphy appears to translate better by their 3rd year.

 

[DearbornDolfan]

GRS, you have a point. But I really hate the word gimmick. It implies some kind of trick that is one and done. Harvin being an excellent rusher clearly wasn't that, because the Gators did it all the time. Would it work in the NFL? No, Harvin would be destroyed trying it because he doesn't have the size for it.

Oh, and on the issue of 40 times, I don't like how the Combine does them. A lot of the guys wear cross trainers and they all run on a synthetic grass field instead of a composite track surface. Given that, I believe the sprinter's start actually hurts players. Something else to keep in mind is that NFL teams only pay attention to the 10 second split, because that is what mostly translates to the NFL.

 

[dukdown]

"Where someone goes in the NFL draft doesn't mean a lot once in the NFL"

That's an interesting subject. Let's take a look at the facts, and see if they support that.

Looking at the Top 50 wide receivers of 2009 (by receiving yards), what can we gleam in retrospect from where they were drafted.

First, the top two receivers, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald ironically enough were both drafted 1.03. The 5th best, Calvin Johnson, was drafted 1.02. Braylon Edwards, who was also drafted 1.03, was the 7th wr of 2007. So, I think's fair to say that a wr who gets drafted in the top end of the draft, has a fairly strong chance to succeed.

Of the top 50 wr's
18 were drafted in the first round
13 were drafted in the second round
5 were drafted in the third round
4 were drafted in the fourth round
3 were drafted in the 5th round
0 were drafted in the 6th round
3 were drafted in the 7th round
4 were undrafted FA's

So, 36 of 50 were drafted on the 1st day, or 72 percent. If we look at some of the players who have succeeded who were not first round picks, they more than likely came from non-major programs, like Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Vincent Jackson, Bernard Berrian, Marques Colston, Kevin Walters, Donald Driver and the such. The only players on the list, from major programs, who were drafted after the 2nd round, had fundamental position question marks, such as Hines Ward, legal issues such as Laveranues Coles, or speed issues, such as Jerricho Cotchery.

So, where does that leave Louis Murphy? It probably leaves him looking at Chad Jackson comparisons, fair or unfair. It probably leaves him looking at a 4th round selection. And looking at the numbers, that doesn't bode real well for him.

 

[GRS0002]

It's a huge stretch to be putting Calvin, Fitz, AJ is the same paragraph as P.Harvin... those guys are Crabtree of this draft. Harvin is not the top WR or even close to the top WR to draw those comparisons. Draft projections have Murphy going as early as the 2nd and as late as the 4th, so is talent isn't rated as low as you think it is.

If your going to draw conparisons of current players... Harvin is GinnJR and Murphy is D.Bowe (at least according to Sgt Johns write up on this site).
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nf...ection-national-football-league-impact-25224/

But anyway, the point isn't the comparison, but rather that an arguement can clearly be made that Harvin isn't the best "WR" on his own team... let alone the #3 WR of this years draft. He might be the most athletic or some other title, but not the best WR. It's not like Tebow could throw very well down field and Murphy is a 6'3" down the field threat. A great weapon for some other QB that could throw a tight spiral down field.

Regardless of the conditions they are under for the 40... they all run on the same surface and they all train to get the best start from that position, so its all relative IMO. As far as the relavence, who knows.... running fast doesn't equal success... it helps. I think Harvin is a slot/WR3 so it doesn't mean that much. I think it means more for players like Murphy that would be drafted to be down field threats as a WR1/WR2 and stretch the field so guys like Harvin can do their thing underneath.

 

[dukdown]

Dude, I'm not comparing Harvin to those players drafted in the top 5 picks of the draft. I was just examing your statement that "Where someone goes in the NFL draft doesn't mean a lot once in the NFL". I think I showed pretty clearly that wide receivers from major programs who are drafted after the 2nd round do not have a very high rate of success. And if you are looking for odds on a successful WR, that looking at those drafted in the first 2 rounds have the highest probability. What I showed above are what we like to call "facts". Where someone goes in the NFL draft does mean something in relationship to their success.

 

[gmrcharity]

Just some Names

Reidel Anthony
Ike Hilliard
Jaquez Gree
Travis Mcgriff
Darrell Jackson
Travis Taylor
Reche Caldwell
Jabar Gaffney
Taylor Jacobs
Chad Jackson
Andre Caldwell

Any questions?

 

[dukdown]

That's not entirely fair, as those were players that played mostly under Steve Spurrier. DJax has been a pretty good wide out, and the juries still out on Caldwell. I personally think that Harvin is a special player and will out-shine any previous group.