NFL QB situations, and what could or could not happen

Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
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Well, we are coming to the end of 2022/2023 season, and its time before the draft to see what the QB situation is:

AFC East:
Buffalo - Josh Allen - nuff said
New England - Mac Jones - had a pretty solid first year, then digressed some this year. But with O'Brien back as OC, I think he is safe for now.
Miami - Tua Tagovailoa - injury history and lately concussion history is scary. My gut says they will stay with him, but go out and pay for better back up protection.
NY Jets - Zach Wilson, Mike White and......? - Zach is NOT safe as a starter, the team has made that clear. I am also not convinced the team will stick with White, who is an FA this year - my gut says they go after one of the top FA's and try to secure this

AFC North:
Cincinnati - Joe Burrow - nuff said
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson - if the team gets it way they sign him to a big money but not fully guaranteed deal, or FT him. The key will be - Lamar signing a not fully guaranteed deal, or saying he won't play on FT. If that is the case, I see them tagging him and trading him. But for now will say he is staying put.
Pittsburgh - Kenny Pickett - I think they roll with this kid again, and let him continue to develop.
Cleveland - Deshaun Watson - for good or for ill, they are all in here. Have no choice

AFC South:
Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence - nuff said
Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill - I think they are ready to move on from Tannehill, but not ready to live with Malik Willis. Do they draft one(not a good spot to do so), or do they instead make a move on a Brady or Carr or some other FA?
Indianapolis - Matt Ryan? - Ryan is done. Gut tells me he is cut or retires. Either way they will draft a QB at #4 or make a play for Carr(which I think would be a good fit).
Houston - Miles Davis? - Nope. I think they keep Davis as support, but they will draft the next QB in Houston at #2. I have heard rumors of Carr there as well, but the irony would be too much as his brother's career was ruined by his time in Houston.

AFC West:
Kansas City - Patrick Mahomes - nuff said
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert - nuff said
Denver - Russell Wilson - they have no choice, they are tied to him like a ball and chain
Las Vegas - Derek Carr - this has gone totally bad, and can't see team keeping Carr. Carr has a no trade clause, so they will have to work with him on location. This was really poorly handled. McDaniels better not screw this next step up. Oh, rumors flying this is where Brady will end up.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Now we move to the NFC and the QB look:
NFC East:
Philadelphia - Jalen Hurts - nuff said
Dallas - Dak Prescott - not what they hoped, but his contract is tied up this year
NY Giants - Daniel Jones - he is an FA, but all reports are they want him back. I could see them sign him to friendlier deal, and then draft for future. Or just FT him. But either way he will be back is my guess.
Washington - Heinicke, Wentz - neither is the real starter, so look for the Commanders to make a HUGE push for Carr or some other FA, not sure their draft slot is low enough to get one of the top QB draft prospects. Sam Howell who they drafted last year may get a shot to compete.

NFC North:
Minnesota - Kirk Cousins - He is safe, they have over $40 million in dead cap money if they move on. He might be gone after this year though.
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers - here we go again folks...., He will probably play, but not convinced he will stay in Green Bay. Contract will hinder a trade, but there are some teams out there with the cap space. Jordan Love will take over if Rodgers is gone.
Detroit - Jared Goff - he is safe, due to contract. He is also UFA after this year. He showed he could win, and Detroit isn't going to the Superbowl yet. But I would not be shocked to see them draft a QB this year.
Chicago - Justin Fields - Safe...... but...... - look, they have the #1 draft pick. They have IMO, three options. 1) trade pick for multiple picks to a QB hungry team, 2) Trade Fields for picks and take a QB this year to keep cost of cap down, 3) Draft BPA and continue to address needs. They should trade the pick which gets them more value IMO.

NFC South:
Tampa Bay - Tom Brady - Brady is a FA this year, and expectations are they move on from him. Back ups right now are Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask. I look for Tampa to nab a top FA, not sure who that will be. Trask hasn't really showed to be ready yet.
Atlanta - Desmond Ridder - Mariota made it clear he wants out, Ridder showed some flashes, not sure how team feels about him. I have seen rumors of Tannehill here(HC was his old OC in Tenn.) and also Lamar Jackson(which I don't think happens). Could draft a young QB as well.
Carolina - Sam Darnold? - Darnold is a FA, Matt Corral was drafted later last year, and hurt, P.J. Walker has shown he is back up material only. Do they draft or do they sign a FA? Not sure but I see someone new here this year.
New Orleans - Jameis Winston? - No way. They purposely went with Dalton all year after early injury. My guess is they draft or move to get big FA QB here. This team is not that far away, and the Defense is solid. OL is okay, but they may be without Alvin Kamara if he gets suspended.

NFC West:
San Francisco - Lance, Purdy - what a great situation to have here. Let the two youngsters compete, and let the best man win. I can see them using both at times to take advantage of Lance's abilities. I could see them also trading one of them for more picks and to reduce cap, but why risk such an important roster spot?
Seattle - Geno Smith - This one befuddles me. He played relatively well, and could be maintained as starter this year, as they draft and develop a young QB for the future. They have the WRs, and RBs to protect him, as well as improved the O-line. I would rather see them use their picks to fix the Defense and leave Geno alone.
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford - IF he is healthy he is in, due to contract. I also could see him retire. Just have to wait and see. Regardless, they need to get a developmental QB in here behind Stafford
Arizona - Kyler Murray - like it or not they are married to him. Hoping they can find a solid HC and OC that can use his talents but keep him safe, as he can be fragile.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
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Top QB Free Agents next year:(before FT's can be placed)
Lamar Jackson
Daniel Jones
Tom Brady
Jimmy Garoppolo
Geno Smith
Sam Darnold
Baker Mayfield
Taylor Heinicke
Teddy Bridgewater
Jacoby Brissett
Andy Dalton
Jarrett Stidham
Gardner Minshew
Blaine Gabbert
Drew Lock
Joe Flacco
Mason Rudolph
and a few assorted more
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Top QBs in this draft, in no specific order:
Bryce Young Alabama
C.J. Stroud Ohio State
Will Levis Kentucky
Anthony Richardson Florida
Hendon Hooker Tennessee
Lower rated:
Jaren Hall BYU
Stetson Bennett Georgia
Tanner McKee Stanford
Max Duggan TCU
Jake Haener Fresno State
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Post Super Bowl - what we now know:

NFC East:
Philadelphia - Jalen Hurts
Dallas - Dak Prescott
NY Giants - Daniel Jones - he is an FA, but team wants him back, look for lower priced deal, so they can tag Saquon
Washington - Heinicke, Wentz are gone. For now Sam Howell is in place - potential Garoppolo or Carr spot?

NFC North:
Minnesota - Kirk Cousins
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers - here we go again folks - he may retire, or may want to move or stay. This time reports have Packers want him gone and move to Love.
Detroit - Jared Goff
Chicago - Justin Fields - All reports say the team loves him. I hope they can trade back and get some extra picks and get kid a WR or two and some OL help.

NFC South:
Tampa Bay - ???? - Brady has retired. So does it go to Trask, Gabbert, or FA?
Atlanta - Desmond Ridder - Team is expected to walk away from Mariota, and either focus on Ridder or potentially draft another QB this year. I don't think they go for the big FA like Garoppolo or Carr or Rodgers.
Carolina - ???? - no idea what Panthers are thinking. Don't think a young QB will be there at their pick. Carr or Garoppolo?
New Orleans - ???? - Still have Winston and Dalton is FA, but they spent two days wooing Carr, but won't get to trade for him since Carr is forcing Raiders hand here. Gut says Carr to the Bayou will happen quickly once cut.

NFC West:
San Francisco - Lance, Purdy - This is a great spot for Niners. I am hearing more and more though that team loves Purdy. Good young Qb competition will make both better.
Seattle - ???? - Geno Smith is FA, but team could re-sign him. Look for young QB to be drafted at some point probably.
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford - They are locked with him unless he retires. But they need some help if he keeps getting hurt.
Arizona - Kyler Murray - They may not like it but team is married to Murray. But will need a starter for first half of season probably as Murray heals from knee injury.

QB situation in NFC is a mess. Green Bay wants to move on from Rodgers, but not send him in Conf. So these teams will need to draft or move quickly to get Jimmy G or Carr once he is cut.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
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Post Super Bowl assessment:

AFC East:
Buffalo - Josh Allen
New England - Mac Jones
Miami - Tua Tagovailoa - need better solid back up for if Tua gets hurt
NY Jets - ???? - Wilson and White are not it. This team is damn close to being solid. Need a real QB. Rumors has Rodgers going here.

AFC North:
Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson - either FT or long term deal - they can't walk away and save face.
Pittsburgh - Kenny Pickett
Cleveland - Deshaun Watson

AFC South:
Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence
Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill
Indianapolis - ???? - Look for them to draft a QB with pick #4 - I wonder if they deal up to #1 to make sure they get who they want?
Houston - ???? - Will draft QB of the future at spot #2 - and probably keep Miles Davis as the bridge

AFC West:
Kansas City - Patrick Mahomes
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
Denver - Russell Wilson
Las Vegas - ???? = Raiders are royally screwed here. Carr will force them to cut him, so lose him with no return. Just stupid moves. Who will take over is a guess, but Jimmy G back with McDaniels may be the move here.

Situation is much better in AFC than NFC in QB talk. Especially since two of the teams will get their QB in first round of this draft.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Depending on who they get as OC, and what type offense they run, he is a pretty solid back up.
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Post Rookie Combine - first FA moves

NFC East:
Philadelphia - Jalen Hurts
Dallas - Dak Prescott
NY Giants - Daniel Jones - signed extension
Washington - Sam Howell? - Wentz released, Heinicke not the long term here - maybe draft?

NFC North:
Minnesota - Kirk Cousins
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love - Rodgers has got permission and talked to Jets, and reports out heavily team wants to move to Love
Detroit - Jared Goff
Chicago - Justin Fields - Look for Bears to deal #1 pick if they can to get more picks, not Fields

NFC South:
Tampa Bay - Kyle Trask- Look for some FA help here
Atlanta - Desmond Ridder - Not going after Jackson per reports
Carolina - Matt Corral? - Look for heavy run at Jimmy G, or try to move up in draft
New Orleans - Derek Carr - Moved in for one of the top FA Qbs.

NFC West:
San Francisco - Lance, Purdy - one of them will have to step up.
Seattle - Geno Smith - extended Geno, but won't be surprised if they draft QB of the future
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford - Until heard otherwise, he is it. Assuming he plays. They are dumping salary like a bad habit right now.
Arizona - Kyler Murray - Assume Colt McCoy filling in until Murray is back from knee injury
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Post rookie Combine and first FA moves

AFC East:
Buffalo - Josh Allen
New England - Mac Jones
Miami - Tua Tagovailoa - need better solid back up for if Tua gets hurt
NY Jets - ???? - they are hard on the hunt for Aaron Rodges, would they pivot to an offer sheet for Lamar if that fails? Jimmy G?

AFC North:
Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson - placed non-exclusive FT on him so he can negotiate with other teams. No one knows if someone will bid him over what Baltimore is willing to pay.
Pittsburgh - Kenny Pickett
Cleveland - Deshaun Watson

AFC South:
Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence
Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill - rumors flying they may release or move Tannehill due to cap hurt
Indianapolis - ???? - Look for them to draft a QB with pick #4 - I wonder if they deal up to #1 to make sure they get who they want?
Houston - ???? - Will draft QB of the future at spot #2 - but rumors are they may go heavy also for Jimmy G.

AFC West:
Kansas City - Patrick Mahomes
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
Denver - Russell Wilson
Las Vegas - ???? = Carr is gone, Jimmy G? Go after Rodgers? - although per reports only the Jets are pushing for Rodgers, looking to draft?
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Post Rookie Combine and first week of FA

NFC East:
Philadelphia - Jalen Hurts
Dallas - Dak Prescott
NY Giants - Daniel Jones - signed extension
Washington - Sam Howell - Signed Brissett to back up or be vet to take over

NFC North:
Minnesota - Kirk Cousins
Green Bay - Jordan Love - Rodgers made it clear he wants to be a Jet, look for trade soon.
Detroit - Jared Goff
Chicago - Justin Fields - now locked with trade away of #1 pick

NFC South:
Tampa Bay - Kyle Trask - will be given the chance to win it, Baker Mayfield will be there to pick up slack
Atlanta - Desmond Ridder - Ridder has his shot to win it, Taylor Heinicke to be vet back up
Carolina - #1 Draft pick - Moved up to get #1 pick, and then smartly signed Andy Dalton to be bridge for the rookie
New Orleans - Derek Carr - Jameis Winston there in case of injury

NFC West:
San Francisco - Lance, Purdy - one of them will have to step up.
Seattle - Geno Smith - Geno will start, look at draft to see what may be the future
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford
Arizona - Kyler Murray - Assume Colt McCoy filling in until Murray is back from knee injury
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Post rookie Combine and first week of FA

AFC East:
Buffalo - Josh Allen
New England - Mac Jones
Miami - Tua Tagovailoa - picked up 5th year option
NY Jets - Aaron Rodgers - NY be careful what you wish for, phenomenal talent, phenomenal ego, head case.

AFC North:
Cincinnati - Joe Burrow
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson - What a mess, first they don't sign him long term last year, then they FT him non-exclusive, then they let it known he wants ONLY a fully guaranteed deal, and Watson money... which no one will spend. Ravens really put him in bad spot, and he did it to himself as well. The question is, will he play next year for Ravens on FT or lesser deal? I don't think so.
Pittsburgh - Kenny Pickett
Cleveland - Deshaun Watson

AFC South:
Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence
Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill
Indianapolis - drafted QB - Look for them to draft a QB with pick #4 - I wonder if they deal up to #1 to make sure they get who they want?
Houston - Drafted QB at #2 - Will draft QB of the future at spot #2

AFC West:
Kansas City - Patrick Mahomes
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert
Denver - Russell Wilson
Las Vegas - Jimmy Garoppolo - He is the guy now
 
Phicinfan

Phicinfan

Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything
Administrator
Okay have to ask..... is it time for Washington or Indianapolis to make a run at Lamar Jackson?

Reality is this....
Washington - will have a competition between Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett. Not a great competion. Add to that by all reports the team is about to be sold - one report has Snyders completely moving out of the team facility last month. What a way to make a splash than to run out and get your franchise QB to sound off?

Indianapolis - they are not far from playoff capability, especially in that division. A Lamar Jackson to pair with Taylor and Pittman would be huge for them. HE can fix their O-line issues almost himself as well.

Tennessee - rumor are they are starting to sniff around Lamar.
New England - hearing same rumors here but don't buy it. I think they are locked with Mac Jones and Zappe.

But Commanders need to jump here, and the new owner needs to announce their presence with authority.
 
efactor

efactor

Coming at you
2 1sts and 45 million a year for a QB who isn’t a very good passer? Hard pass.

Once Lamar loses that burst that makes him special running the ball, game over.

And while I am hesitant to label any player “injury prone” he has missed big chunks of the last two years. Running QBs and longevity are not traits commonly shared.
 
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