Need Keeper Advice

[Rehgn3]

Hi folks, new to the site, and heard good things about the forums. I'm looking for some advice. I can keep 4 out of 5 of the following options. In a twelve team keeper league, and picking in the 7th spot.

Adrian Peterson as 1st and 6th round picks
Andre Johnson as 2nd and 8th round picks
Kevin Smith as 4th round pick
Antonio Bryant as 12th round pick
Eddie Royal as 13th round pick


Also, the next year, I may keep a pick two rounds higher than I did during this draft. So if Antonio Bryant or Eddie Royal has an awesome 2009, in 2010 I can keep them as 10th and 11th round picks.

Any thoughts or suggestions?

Thanks in advance

BTW, we play the following positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, DST, K

 

[The Ram]

Howdy Rehgn3. First welcome to sportsoutlaw. Second, holy crap that is a solid freaking team. Kudos to you for putting together a great squad.

Also thanks for the details on the league. It helps us give good advice. I would keep the following:

Adrian Peterson - unreal talent, nuff said
Andre Johnson - Another marque guy.
Kevin Smith - he's got cahones and talent on a team without anyone to touch his carries. great guy to keep around.
Eddie Royal - This kid has outstanding skills and worked his butt off this past off season on technique. I'm a Denverite and heard he wow'd the coaching staff with his maturity, explosiveness, and ability to digest the offense. Shanny raved about the guy last season and then he went off. I expect a bigger year from him this year regardless of what Marshall does or doesn't do this season.

If you're able to trade Bryant he could fetch some value after last season. Again welcome to the site and hope to see you around.

 

[Coachnorm]

I have to agree with Ram's assesment My god, Ram, where the hell did you get that picture?? although Bryant and Royal are pretty close.

 

[Rehgn3]

Thanks for the reply.

The one thing that concerns me about keeping AJ, is that I'm loosing that 2nd round pick. Since all teams are allowed 4 keepers, quality QBs will be slim. I've noticed that quality players in this keeper league may have a higher draft position than ADP suggests. I ran some hypothetical drafts with what I assume to be the keepers from other teams. and loosing the 2nd round pick may cause me to miss out on an opportunity to get peyton manning, or tom brady in the 2nd. Is Antonio Bryant in the 12th that poor of a value when giving up a 2nd to AJ?

 

[The Ram]

Awesome question! For some perspective on AJ, he's currently the #2 WR on most people's boards only playing second fiddle to Fitzgerald. So giving up a second rounder for a guy who will dominate the position seems like a fair price to pay. Now onto quarterback.

While I agree missin on Brady and Manning may on the surface seem like a steep gamble. If you play your cards well you may very well pick up a guy who will outproduce both of them. Guys like Rodgers and Rivers can be had at a much later position than 2nd and have every chance to dominate this season. Both should be there in the 3rd when you pick.

 

[The Ram]

My god, Ram, where the hell did you get that picture??

The last Forum Leader & Admin conference got a little out of hand. A certain admin wasn't able to hold his Zima too well and, well you know, in the age of camera phones anyone can become an internet star.

 

[Coachnorm]

Thanks for the reply.

The one thing that concerns me about keeping AJ, is that I'm loosing that 2nd round pick. Since all teams are allowed 4 keepers, quality QBs will be slim. I've noticed that quality players in this keeper league may have a higher draft position than ADP suggests. I ran some hypothetical drafts with what I assume to be the keepers from other teams. and loosing the 2nd round pick may cause me to miss out on an opportunity to get peyton manning, or tom brady in the 2nd. Is Antonio Bryant in the 12th that poor of a value when giving up a 2nd to AJ?

That is a very good point in a keeper system where you have to give up specific picks based on value of the keeper you keep. AJ and Bryant were only separated by about 40 points.

Since you don't have a top QB to keep having that early pick may indeed be more important to you in this case then general keeper theory would say.

That difference between a good QB and a bottom of the barrel dreg could be way more than the 40 point diffference between an AJ and a AB. Maybe as much as 100 points or so. Having that second rounder to grab a QB may be gold to you QB wise. Your specifics may make dropping AJ the play to make.

I like the way you are thinking on this.

 

[Coachnorm]

The last Forum Leader & Admin conference got a little out of hand. A certain admin wasn't able to hold his Zima too well and, well you know, in the age of camera phones anyone can become an internet star.

Ah, The Khris and Ryan/ Fantasy Outlaws advice about not being the first to pass out at a party!

 

[Rehgn3]

Two owners will probably keep Aaron Rodgers and Rivers as 9th rounders, (Lucky SOBS.) Tony Romo may be available in the third, but may be a stretch for me. I also believe Warner, Brees, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, matt cassel and Donavon McNabb may be kept as keepers by other owners as well.

One of the challenges is not knowing who others will keep as keepers, makes it more difficult, but the challenge is fun

If I dont get a peyton manning or Tom brady in the second, theres an opportunity in the 3rd for Romo (which I'm not too keen on in the third.) My fourth is reserved for Kevin Smith, so my next choice would be matt schaub, carson palmer, ben rothlesberger, matt hasslebeck in the 5th or 7th...or wait till 9th + for a joe flacco, Kyle Orton, jamarcus russell, pennington, or another second rate QB.

This will be my third season: the first season I had peyton manning, a solid QB, and won the superbowl for the league. Last year, I tried to build a strong team, and let the team carry the QB. Matt schaub broke my heart last year, and orton getting injured against det added insult to injury. The owner with Brees won the league. I'm sensing a trend that having a top tier QB is required to win in this league (slightly more points given for QBs than the ESPN standard scoring.)

Thanks again for the conversations, I'm getting excited for the season, even though its a couple months away.

 

[Coachnorm]

Damm, You have done your research !!

Congrats, on that championship!!

Come by often and absorb the intel. We have some great FF minds hanging around here and we like sharing what we know.

 

[The Ram]

Two owners will probably keep Aaron Rodgers and Rivers as 9th rounders, (Lucky SOBS.) Tony Romo may be available in the third, but may be a stretch for me. I also believe Warner, Brees, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, matt cassel and Donavon McNabb may be kept as keepers by other owners as well.

One of the challenges is not knowing who others will keep as keepers, makes it more difficult, but the challenge is fun

If I dont get a peyton manning or Tom brady in the second, theres an opportunity in the 3rd for Romo (which I'm not too keen on in the third.) My fourth is reserved for Kevin Smith, so my next choice would be matt schaub, carson palmer, ben rothlesberger, matt hasslebeck in the 5th or 7th...or wait till 9th + for a joe flacco, Kyle Orton, jamarcus russell, pennington, or another second rate QB.

This will be my third season: the first season I had peyton manning, a solid QB, and won the superbowl for the league. Last year, I tried to build a strong team, and let the team carry the QB. Matt schaub broke my heart last year, and orton getting injured against det added insult to injury. The owner with Brees won the league. I'm sensing a trend that having a top tier QB is required to win in this league (slightly more points given for QBs than the ESPN standard scoring.)

Thanks again for the conversations, I'm getting excited for the season, even though its a couple months away.

Tiering is important and it appears you've done your homework. Romo and Hass could be good values. Keep an eye on Palmer this off season. If you can stomach it, try and watch a Bengal pre-season game. While I just threw up a little in my mouth writing that it may be worth your while if you draft late enough. Those three qb's would be ranked muuuuuch higher if not for question marks. All have weapons available and while health is a concern one of them will outpeform. I'm a Steeler fan and I'll even tell you to avoid Big Ben. The man wins championships but isn't a great option for your ff lineup.

 

[cctekguy]

Howdy Rehgn3!

Welcome to the forum.

I've got AJ at the cost of a #2 also and, like you, I'm hedging a bit. It's just a gut thing but I don't expect a repeat of last year's numbers. I also have Bryant @ # 14 but I'm not real keen on him as WR1 either.

In your situation I'd keep Johnson and take a gamble on QB Palmer in the 3rd. (I don't think he'll be around in #5 in a 4 keeper draft).

Best of luck and hope to see you around the boards this year!

 

[Rehgn3]

Thanks again for the help...

Didn't mention this earlier, but I could also get ray rice in the 8th, or LeRon McLain in the 12/13th in lieu of one of the receivers. I like them bothm, but the chimera beast RBBC in baltimore screwed me last year, so i am hesitant in putting any value in these guys. Any thoughts? Also, what are you opinions on Antonio Bryant? Serious bust this year, or being on a 1 year contract will make him rise to the occasion no matter who's throwing to him?

 

[The Ram]

On B-more: I like Rice this year for a few reasons. First McClain moves his chunky butt back to fullback. He will get touches so don't think he goes away but his touches will be reduced a great deal when compared to last season. McGahee and Rice will share carries for sure. Rice has the third down duties locked down in Cam Cameron's system. That will add to his opportunities for catches. Competition for carries should work out to 10-15 for Rice and 8-12 for McGahee. On any given Sunday Rice could get between 10-20 total touches depending on scheme. Those are plenty good for an 8th rounder.

I like Bryant, too. He showed last season what his potential has been all along. Quarterback may be an issue. New coach, new system, lots of questions. Questions surround your alternative Royal, too. But we have a body of work to assume how he'll pan out this year. So between he and Royal there is no question I would go with Royal.