Michael Thomas dynasty value

[ExperiencedRookie]

What happens to Michael Thomas' value if/when Brees retires? Is he QB proof? Will it matter if it's Taysom Hill at QB for a year?

I have Thomas on a 2 year deal, and it's crazy expensive to keep him around any longer than that. I also don't see any chance of winning a championship this year.

Trade Thomas?? Will his value drop heavily if Brees retires?

 

[cctekguy]

Yep.

Latavious Murray went to Brees and the Saints and his value immediately went UP.

Why wouldn't the opposite be true?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Yep.

Latavious Murray went to Brees and the Saints and his value immediately went UP.

Why wouldn't the opposite be true?

I see what you're saying, but that's a bit different. Murray is filling a role vacated by Ingram. That role is more valuable than his previous.

 

[cctekguy]

Thomas + Bridgewater is filling a role vacated by Thomas + Brees.

Looks like a value loss to me.

 

[KillerFins]

I'd still consider MT to be an elite FF Asset. However, it wouldn't hurt to shop him and see what you could get, because while he will still remain a top WR, his perceived value might drop.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I'd still consider MT to be an elite FF Asset. However, it wouldn't hurt to shop him and see what you could get, because while he will still remain a top WR, his perceived value might drop.

That's kind of what I was thinking.

It's a really simply theory. Buy low. Sell high. Somehow it's always way more complicated than that. It's tough to buy on a guy who has struggled recently. It's equally tough to trade away a guy who is crushing it.

 

[cctekguy]

Also keep in mind that there is no certainty that Brees won't play in 2020.

Maybe ride him through the season and look for a deal when the play-off teams are looking for an edge.

You'll know more about Brees' future then too.

 

[Phicinfan]

The loss of Brees will be solely dependant on who replaced Brees. There is no given that Bridgewater is the next Qb there or Hill. There will always be a draft coming that could effect it.

I would be MORE worried if I owned the players if the rumors of Payton leaving are true....his plans makes that offense what it is...

 

[Walter34]

I dont see Hill ever starting, he is a part time swiss army knife. Bridgewater is a maybe but less than 50% that he is the starter 1 or 2 years from now. We don't have the crystal ball to see what the Saints are in the future.

If you have to lose Thomas anyway due to other reasons that you are implying (crazy expensive), then that would be the reason to consider moving him. You could get a boat load now or mid season. So, for that reason I would shop him but would only deal for a GREAT offer.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Thanks for all the responses fellas.
I've been trying to think of similar situations. Solid WRs playing with elite QBs who retired.

The most recent I could think of is how DT and Sanders went from world beaters to average after Manning declined and retired.

 

[cctekguy]

Antonio Brown will be catching from a different QB. See how well that works out.

 

[Walter34]

The closest situation I could find was TY Hilton 2017 when Luck missed the whole year and brissett was QB. Hilton dropped from a 1300 average yd guy down to 950 for that one year.

Now I think Thomas is better than TY and we have a sample of 1 so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I did end up finding a trade that I was comfortable with. I moved:

Michael Thomas 2 years
Marlon Mack 3 years
Rashaad Penny 2 years
2021 2nd

For

Juju 4 years
Leveon Bell 3 years
2021 1st

 

[mudloggerone]

So you moved MT because you were worried that Brees was near the end for a WR that has a QB that has threatened retirement for the last couple of years?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

So you moved MT because you were worried that Brees was near the end for a WR that has a QB that has threatened retirement for the last couple of years?

Ben just signed a 2 yr extension though. Brees is in his final under contract.

I also believe that Brees started to slow last year. If you look at his stats post week 12, it's kind of telling. I wouldn't doubt that his arm starts to die on him again this season.

There's league variables as well. MT's contract was 15k for 2 years. Juju's is $300 for 4 years. Night and day difference.

 

[mudloggerone]

Yeah that's a huge difference. I seriously doubt Brees steps away after this season barring injury and likewise for Big Ben.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Yeah that's a huge difference. I seriously doubt Brees steps away after this season barring injury and likewise for Big Ben.

Go check out the last 5-6 games of 2018 for Brees.

He threw 5 INTs in 2018. 4 of them post week 12. His yardage also went into the tank. There's some signs here that his crumbling has begun.

It had a huge effect on Thomas too. Weeks 1-11 MT was the #2 fantasy WR. Weeks 12-17...#24 fantasy WR. Yikes.