ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
Axe Elf pointed out the great finish Justin Blackmon had in 2012. It kind of got me thinking about the fantasy value to be had in Jacksonville's WR corp.
I've been hung up on Cecil Shorts lately. It's caused me to over look Blackmon a bit. Also becomes really easy to over lock Blackmon when he's going into the season on the shelf.
I want to take a closer look at which guy is THE guy to own.
Blackmon first. He had a pretty uninspiring start to the season. In the first 7 weeks, he was averaging 6 targets/game, 2.5 recs/game, 28 Yds/game, and didn't have a single TD. In the last 9 weeks however, he came up with 10 targets/game, 5 recs/game, 74 yds/game, and grabbed 5 TDs.
Nearly twice as many targets, twice as many receptions, 3 times as many yards, and actually starting finding the end zone with regularity.
One note: Cecil Shorts missed 2 games last year, both were during Blackmon's 9 game awesome run.
Moving on To Cecil Shorts. His 1st half wasn't quite as uninspiring as Blackmon's. In his first 7 games he had 4 targets/game, 3 recs/game, 57 yds/game, and 3 TDs. His second half saw him go for 9 targets/game, 5 recs/game, 83 yds/game, and added another 4 TDs.
Both players improved significantly in the latter half of the season.
What do I take from all of this? Blackmon gets more targets per game in both halves of the season, yet Shorts comes up with less receptions, but more yards and TDs. Some of this is due to Shorts being a home run hitter. He posted a catch of 30+ yards in 9 games last year. Blackmon had 4 games with a reception of that distance.
So which guy is THE guy to own? There's no question that Shorts will lead this team in all receiving categories, but will Blackmon outpace him once he gets back on the field?
The current ADP on these guys determines value. Shorts is 7.09 and Blackmon is 10.10. A full 3 rounds later because of the suspension. Kind of makes me feel like Blackmon is the better value.
Before I sell Shorts down the river though, I want to at least plug his value at 7.09. Last year he had 55 rec for 979 yards and 7 TDs. That's pretty solid for a 7th round pick.
By comparison, Randall Cobb had 80 receptions for 954 yards and 8 TDs. Hes going 4 rounds earlier than Shorts.
So you tell me....which one do you want to draft?
I've been hung up on Cecil Shorts lately. It's caused me to over look Blackmon a bit. Also becomes really easy to over lock Blackmon when he's going into the season on the shelf.
I want to take a closer look at which guy is THE guy to own.
Blackmon first. He had a pretty uninspiring start to the season. In the first 7 weeks, he was averaging 6 targets/game, 2.5 recs/game, 28 Yds/game, and didn't have a single TD. In the last 9 weeks however, he came up with 10 targets/game, 5 recs/game, 74 yds/game, and grabbed 5 TDs.
Nearly twice as many targets, twice as many receptions, 3 times as many yards, and actually starting finding the end zone with regularity.
One note: Cecil Shorts missed 2 games last year, both were during Blackmon's 9 game awesome run.
Moving on To Cecil Shorts. His 1st half wasn't quite as uninspiring as Blackmon's. In his first 7 games he had 4 targets/game, 3 recs/game, 57 yds/game, and 3 TDs. His second half saw him go for 9 targets/game, 5 recs/game, 83 yds/game, and added another 4 TDs.
Both players improved significantly in the latter half of the season.
What do I take from all of this? Blackmon gets more targets per game in both halves of the season, yet Shorts comes up with less receptions, but more yards and TDs. Some of this is due to Shorts being a home run hitter. He posted a catch of 30+ yards in 9 games last year. Blackmon had 4 games with a reception of that distance.
So which guy is THE guy to own? There's no question that Shorts will lead this team in all receiving categories, but will Blackmon outpace him once he gets back on the field?
The current ADP on these guys determines value. Shorts is 7.09 and Blackmon is 10.10. A full 3 rounds later because of the suspension. Kind of makes me feel like Blackmon is the better value.
Before I sell Shorts down the river though, I want to at least plug his value at 7.09. Last year he had 55 rec for 979 yards and 7 TDs. That's pretty solid for a 7th round pick.
By comparison, Randall Cobb had 80 receptions for 954 yards and 8 TDs. Hes going 4 rounds earlier than Shorts.
So you tell me....which one do you want to draft?
