ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
As some of you may have noticed, I've already been preaching my anti-LT propaganda in the YPC thread.
It is no secret that I am very down on LT this year for various reasons.
AGE
LT will be 30 entering this year. Very few RBs have ever produced top 10 fantasy stats at age 30.
The most recent elite RB to hit 30 was Edge. He turned 30 last year. His stats dropped to an embaressing low.
Another somewhat recent great RB to hit 30 was Marshall Faulk. His rushing totals were in the 800's and never returned. His receiving yards even cut in HALF at age 30 and never boosted. It was an insane drop off.
Jerome Bettis also comes to mind. He hit 30 in 2002 and had one the worst years of his career. Even though he remained a goal line TD vulture, he never reached 1000 yards again.
There are only a few modern era RBs that I can find who had gas in the tank at 30. Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders.
Curtis Martin was able to have 2 productive seasons after 30. He gained 1900 yards at age 31!!
Corey Dillon gained 1700 yards while turning 30. This was following a year where he only touched the ball 150 times though, so he was pretty fresh for the 360 touches he received at age 30. He fell to pieces after this season.
Emmitt Smith was able to produce 1000+ on the ground until he was 32. He was also the most durable RB ever recording the most touches in NFL history.
Barry Sanders was 30 in his final season in the NFL, and still produced at a high level. He retired before his stacks could go to junk.
The age factor certainly stacks up against any RB. There is no denying that LT is one of the greatest ever, but can he join the "30 and loving it" group?
CARRIES
Just as important as age is carries. Heck, it could even be more important. It is the guage of punishment a RB has taken. At this point in LT's career he has 3167 touches. That is ALOT! To put that in perspective, LT has more touches right now than OJ Simpson, Earl Campbell, and Jim Brown had in their entire careers. Barry Sanders only had 3414 and he is arguably the greatest of all time. LT is probably the fastest RB to 3100 touches ever! He has taken an incredible amount of punishment in his 8 years.
Also, it was in this range of touches that Marshall Faulk completely fell off. This is interesting because of all the great NFL RBs, Faulk is probably the most similar to LT in respect to how much they catch the ball.
The list of RBs who have had 3100+ carries and still experienced top 10 fantasy type stats is very very short.
YPC
LT's YPC has been plummeting the past 2 years. He's getting older and the abuse is piling up. He also tries to play hurt all the time, which only brings it down more.
Marshall Faulk experienced this same drop in the same part of his career. He was also 28 when his YPC took a 2 year nosedive, and took his stats with it. At age 30, he was never the same.
So can LT turn it around. Can he handle another season of 350+ touches? Will 30 effect him, or can he join the small group of elite who have posted big fantasy numbers regardless of age?
It is no secret that I am very down on LT this year for various reasons.
AGE
LT will be 30 entering this year. Very few RBs have ever produced top 10 fantasy stats at age 30.
The most recent elite RB to hit 30 was Edge. He turned 30 last year. His stats dropped to an embaressing low.
Another somewhat recent great RB to hit 30 was Marshall Faulk. His rushing totals were in the 800's and never returned. His receiving yards even cut in HALF at age 30 and never boosted. It was an insane drop off.
Jerome Bettis also comes to mind. He hit 30 in 2002 and had one the worst years of his career. Even though he remained a goal line TD vulture, he never reached 1000 yards again.
There are only a few modern era RBs that I can find who had gas in the tank at 30. Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders.
Curtis Martin was able to have 2 productive seasons after 30. He gained 1900 yards at age 31!!
Corey Dillon gained 1700 yards while turning 30. This was following a year where he only touched the ball 150 times though, so he was pretty fresh for the 360 touches he received at age 30. He fell to pieces after this season.
Emmitt Smith was able to produce 1000+ on the ground until he was 32. He was also the most durable RB ever recording the most touches in NFL history.
Barry Sanders was 30 in his final season in the NFL, and still produced at a high level. He retired before his stacks could go to junk.
The age factor certainly stacks up against any RB. There is no denying that LT is one of the greatest ever, but can he join the "30 and loving it" group?
CARRIES
Just as important as age is carries. Heck, it could even be more important. It is the guage of punishment a RB has taken. At this point in LT's career he has 3167 touches. That is ALOT! To put that in perspective, LT has more touches right now than OJ Simpson, Earl Campbell, and Jim Brown had in their entire careers. Barry Sanders only had 3414 and he is arguably the greatest of all time. LT is probably the fastest RB to 3100 touches ever! He has taken an incredible amount of punishment in his 8 years.
Also, it was in this range of touches that Marshall Faulk completely fell off. This is interesting because of all the great NFL RBs, Faulk is probably the most similar to LT in respect to how much they catch the ball.
The list of RBs who have had 3100+ carries and still experienced top 10 fantasy type stats is very very short.
YPC
LT's YPC has been plummeting the past 2 years. He's getting older and the abuse is piling up. He also tries to play hurt all the time, which only brings it down more.
Marshall Faulk experienced this same drop in the same part of his career. He was also 28 when his YPC took a 2 year nosedive, and took his stats with it. At age 30, he was never the same.
So can LT turn it around. Can he handle another season of 350+ touches? Will 30 effect him, or can he join the small group of elite who have posted big fantasy numbers regardless of age?
