High On Ocho

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Yeah, that's right. I'm smoking a big, fat bowl of 85.

Great QB. Check.
Great offense. Check.
Happy WR. Check.

Remember a few years ago when Randy Moss showed up? He was an 8 yr pro coming off a 553 yd, 3 TD effort with Oakland. The general public was very skeptical about his ability to still make big plays and be consistantly productive. Boy, were those people ever wrong.

Ocho is a 10 yr pro who has never played less than 13 games in a season. He's coming out of a dumpster fire of a situation and landing in what he calls "Heaven". In his 9 full seasons in hell he posted 87+ receptions in 5 of them. He has also gone 1000+ yds in 7 of them.

I see absolutely no reason why this guy shouldn't blow up this year. Considering that he has an ADP of 5.01 in 12 team leagues he's a total bargain too.

Load up Outlaws. Im telling you, you won't be sorry.
 

Runnik's Hambones

Active Member
No doubt that Ocho will be productive. I wonder if it will be a couple of weeks before he really becomes a focal point, though. He's had a short offseason with NE and everything I'm hearing from NE is that he's making a lot of progress but that he has a long way to go before he's in rhythm with their system.
 

Remote Controller

Well-Known Member
Terminollogy has been the hindrance so far. He will learn that and ease his way into some nice production. There is a cap however, when you consider the fact that he has Welker and Hernandez to share catches with between the twenties, he has Tate to share the deep stuff with, and he has Welker, Gronk and Branch, who are already trusted redzone targets, to compete with for the TD's. I don't feel this will be close to Randy Moss revisited.
 

Coachnorm

Moderator
A lot of what I am reading has Brandon Tate, who was touted last year as the new deep threat in the post Moss era, was on the way out. So I think ocho has some really nice upside especially where he is going in the draft. A nice value/ nice upside, so I would mind smoking a bowl of Ocho, probably be a good buzz.

ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss and Mike Rodak both agree that Brandon Tate is unlikely to make the Patriots' 53-man roster. Both Boston beat writers are behind this notion which sort of implies there is a new deep threat in town.
 

Coachnorm

Moderator
Everything is reative in fantasy football. Just saw two 12 team drafts recently done. He went in the mid 5th in one and 7.02 in another. I wouldn't have gone for him in the fifth round, too many #1 hanging around. Sixth round he would be a nice grab, seventh a real value.
 

#1bears fan

New Member
If he didnt receive a 4.5 mil signing bonus he would already be gone. I love the guy but think hes a WR3 at best just too many weapons in NE.
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
If he didnt receive a 4.5 mil signing bonus he would already be gone. I love the guy but think hes a WR3 at best just too many weapons in NE.

A WR3??? Come on now. Let me break it down for ya.

How many yards is Tom Brady going to throw for? Over the last 3 full seasons, he has averaged 4300 yds per season. So let's just say that is his total for 2011.

Where are all those yards going?

Well in those 3 years, Welker has averaged 1123 yds. Now we have 3177 yds left to spread around.

New England RBs averaged 546 recieving yds in that span. Down to 2631 yds.

TEs are a little tougher. In the 1st 2 years of this period, NE had Ben Watson at TE and Randy Moss was still in town. Then last year NE grabbed 2 TEs in the draft and used them A LOT. Either way, the TEs have averaged 722 Yds per season. 1909 yds hanging on.

The group that is left is the WR3 in the NE system. Whether it be Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Joey Galloway, Jabar Gaffney, and Donte Stallworth.. That comes up to 741 Yds per season. There's now 1168 yds left after every single piece of the offense has taken their bite. The only numbers not figured into this equation are the 706 by Deion Branch last year. The reason they were not calculated are because Branch's time was at the WR2 position which was clearly boosted by the lack of a true WR1. Branch has zero chance of having that same season with Ocho in town. He will get his piece of the 741 yds per season by the WR3 in the NE system.

So at the end of it all, it's safe to assume that Ocho will be available to take any and all of the 1168 yards left. This in turn is assuming that all the other pieces of the puzzle live up to their end of the bargain. Welker needs to get his 1123. The RBs need to continue to do what they've done, the WR3 (Branch) needs to get his, and the 2 TEs need to continue to get their looks even though the team brought Ocho in. I don't really see any reason for this not to happen either.

So why oh why is it so hard to imagine that Ocho will get even 1000 yds? It would be the 8th time in his career, and now he has some dude named Brady throwing the ball.
 

#1bears fan

New Member
Im just saying I didnt draft him and I wouldnt start him over my top 2 Wrs. Love the explanation hope he pans out for ya I just thought he was going way to early in drafts we shall see. I dont think his output will be consistent he'll be like the lance moore, One week zilch the next week 25 points, I'll take the consistancy any day.
 

Runnik's Hambones

Active Member
A WR3??? Come on now. Let me break it down for ya.

How many yards is Tom Brady going to throw for? Over the last 3 full seasons, he has averaged 4300 yds per season. So let's just say that is his total for 2011.

Where are all those yards going?

Well in those 3 years, Welker has averaged 1123 yds. Now we have 3177 yds left to spread around.

New England RBs averaged 546 recieving yds in that span. Down to 2631 yds.

TEs are a little tougher. In the 1st 2 years of this period, NE had Ben Watson at TE and Randy Moss was still in town. Then last year NE grabbed 2 TEs in the draft and used them A LOT. Either way, the TEs have averaged 722 Yds per season. 1909 yds hanging on.

The group that is left is the WR3 in the NE system. Whether it be Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Joey Galloway, Jabar Gaffney, and Donte Stallworth.. That comes up to 741 Yds per season. There's now 1168 yds left after every single piece of the offense has taken their bite. The only numbers not figured into this equation are the 706 by Deion Branch last year. The reason they were not calculated are because Branch's time was at the WR2 position which was clearly boosted by the lack of a true WR1. Branch has zero chance of having that same season with Ocho in town. He will get his piece of the 741 yds per season by the WR3 in the NE system.

So at the end of it all, it's safe to assume that Ocho will be available to take any and all of the 1168 yards left. This in turn is assuming that all the other pieces of the puzzle live up to their end of the bargain. Welker needs to get his 1123. The RBs need to continue to do what they've done, the WR3 (Branch) needs to get his, and the 2 TEs need to continue to get their looks even though the team brought Ocho in. I don't really see any reason for this not to happen either.

So why oh why is it so hard to imagine that Ocho will get even 1000 yds? It would be the 8th time in his career, and now he has some dude named Brady throwing the ball.

I actually see a lot more of those yards spread out amongst the TEs this year. I think between the two, we may see more like 1800 yards instead of 1100.

Also, I'm not sure anyone is arguing that Ocho doesn't have the potential to be good this year. The only issue is that in FF you have to take value. Ocho's current ADP is 5.02 (5.09 in PPR leagues). That means that there are about 20 WRs ahead of Ocho's ADP. He's sitting around players like:

Mario Manningham
Percy Harvin
Austin Collie
Kenny Britt
Danny Amendola

What's interesting about that list, is that they are ALL WR3s. On a lot of teams, they're used as WR1s and WR2s. That doesn't mean they should be considered as such. The true WR1s are elite. The list of WR2s is narrow. And the WR3s are plenty, as are the 4s and 5s. WR is very deep this year so you could stack up on lots of talent that will produce. If Ocho puts up 90 catches and 1100 yards, gravy. But you're not supposed to count on that from a 5th rounder. You count on that from a 1st and 2nd rounder. If your 5th rounder manages it, then you lucked out. But imagine lucking out with your 5th rounder and your 1st and 2nd rounder. You could have had 90+ catches and 1200 yards in the bank, and drafted Ocho in the 5th, who has the potential to match it. Then you're winning.

In FF you take the best value that you can, and you win your leagues in the 5th-8th rounds. I like Ocho in the 5th, but if you do not capitalize on your value in the 1st-4th, I see struggles ahead.
 

Remote Controller

Well-Known Member
I actually see a lot more of those yards spread out amongst the TEs this year. I think between the two, we may see more like 1800 yards instead of 1100.

Also, I'm not sure anyone is arguing that Ocho doesn't have the potential to be good this year. The only issue is that in FF you have to take value. Ocho's current ADP is 5.02 (5.09 in PPR leagues). That means that there are about 20 WRs ahead of Ocho's ADP. He's sitting around players like:

Mario Manningham
Percy Harvin
Austin Collie
Kenny Britt
Danny Amendola

What's interesting about that list, is that they are ALL WR3s. On a lot of teams, they're used as WR1s and WR2s. That doesn't mean they should be considered as such. The true WR1s are elite. The list of WR2s is narrow. And the WR3s are plenty, as are the 4s and 5s. WR is very deep this year so you could stack up on lots of talent that will produce. If Ocho puts up 90 catches and 1100 yards, gravy. But you're not supposed to count on that from a 5th rounder. You count on that from a 1st and 2nd rounder. If your 5th rounder manages it, then you lucked out. But imagine lucking out with your 5th rounder and your 1st and 2nd rounder. You could have had 90+ catches and 1200 yards in the bank, and drafted Ocho in the 5th, who has the potential to match it. Then you're winning.

In FF you take the best value that you can, and you win your leagues in the 5th-8th rounds. I like Ocho in the 5th, but if you do not capitalize on your value in the 1st-4th, I see struggles ahead.
Added to the increased TE production are the fact that Branch and Welker will not be forgotten or suffer greatly in their production, and Woodhead is still gonna garner around 50 grabs. This pie chart is about all et up!
 

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
It will be interesting to see what happens with these 2 TEs.

On one hand you can make a case that they've become a part of this offense and now they're here to say.

On the other you could argue that the only reason they showed up big last year was because of a total lack of outside chain movers or red zone targets.

I don't think New England would have brought Ocho in if they felt that they had everything they already need.
 

Cerberus

In Dog We Trust
Chad "ocho" Johnson is a total douchebag. If the Jets cant beat out the Pats for the division this year, thn Ocho will help by once again making a disruptive locker room. Hes to much of a showboat and attention hog to sit back and watch others get more receptions then him. Just cant see him shutting his mouth and keeping harming in the locker room and on/off the field. Hope he breaks his fkn leg week 1 just i dont have to hear his antics this year.
 

#1bears fan

New Member
WHOA WHOA not a reality TV fan huh Cerberus...LMAO I think Chad will calm down this year now that hes on a winning team. Its easy to whine about reps when your losing but if your not getting your reps and your team is still winning you cant argue with that and we all kknow the Pats will win more than lose.
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
I'll be very surprised if he ends the year any better than a low end WR 2 and that's stretching it a bit, IMO.
 

Coachnorm

Moderator
Deion Branch played 34-of-42 snaps with the first-team offense Saturday but did not see a single target. Branch remains the third man in all three-wide sets, a package that the Patriots run as their base. But he has zero catches in two preseason starts. This blurb is referring to the 3rd pre-season game. Branch did not get a catch in the 4th pre-season either.
 

mudloggerone

Outlaw
Administrator
Have you seen him play the last couple of years? That's where I get my opinion which is all it is BTW is my opinion. I could be wrong and he may blow by AJ but I'd bet the farm he doesn't.
 

Remote Controller

Well-Known Member
Deion Branch played 34-of-42 snaps with the first-team offense Saturday but did not see a single target. Branch remains the third man in all three-wide sets, a package that the Patriots run as their base. But he has zero catches in two preseason starts. This blurb is referring to the 3rd pre-season game. Branch did not get a catch in the 4th pre-season either.
Rope-a-dope...............................Branch will score atleast once vs. the Dolphins. Brady knows what he can do and where he will be. The preseason was an intentional Belicheck ruse as far as Branch is concerned.
 
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