Give me one player who you know is going to be a bust in 2009

[Doggface Gremlin]

(I searched for the word bust and didnt see a thread like this around.)

Hey dudes give me one player who you know is going to be a bust in 2009. It can be for any reason. Maybe you just think the player is overrated, maybe the player is being drafted way too high, or maybe a different reason.

So give me one players name so when the 2009 fantasy season is over you can look back at this thread and say "there was never any doubt in my mind".

For me id have to say the one player who I think will be a bust is Maurice Jones-Drew. I have seen mocks where MJD is going in the top 2 in fantasy drafts. I just dont see how A) his production last year warrants such a high pick and B) what have the Jags really done to improve the offense enough for MJD to put up top draft pick fantasy numbers.

For A I just dont see how a player who has never had more than 197 carries or 941 yards in a season is a pick that is safe enough to be taken that high. He does score his TDs and can make plays. Im not saying he is a bad RB. I just dont see how fantasy team owners can draft a guy so high when he has never been the workhorse. I dont think its as easy as doubling his stats and saying he should put up these numbers in 2009.

For B this is the biggest flaw in this pick. The Jags havent done enough to improve their offense. In my opinion for at least this year the offense has taken a step back. Last year the Jags were 15th in passing, 18th in rushing, and 20th overall. They have lost WRs Jerry Porter, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, and imo their best WR Dennis Northcutt. They did add Torry Holt but he had his worst season since his rookie season last year and is 33 years old. The Jags also drafted WR Mike Thomas in the draft and want him to step up and be the slot WR as a rookie. The Jags WR core as of right now is Torry Holt, Mike Walker, Mike Thomas, Troy Williamson, Tiquan Underwood, Jarett Dillard, and Nate Hughes. Im not impressed and think the passing game will struggle even more then it did in 2008.

The offensive line was upgraded with some nice moves in the draft when they selected Eugene Monroe in the 1st round and Eben Britton in the 2nd round. They also signed OT Tra Thomas in the offseason and he will provide solid depth behind Monroe. At the sametime this offensive line no matter what 5 start on opening day will need time to gel as a unit. Then you throw in the 8 man fronts the Jags will face without a passing game. It doesnt look good for MJD. Now he has to carry the load full-time with the departure of Fred Taylor to the Patriots. I dont see a huge year for MJD and it wouldnt shock me if it ends up being a injury plagued year for MJD. At best I see a solid year but not a year that is worthy of a 1st round pick in a fantasy draft.

Id actually rather draft somebody else like Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, etc. and then pick up a different Jags RB late in the draft. A guy who slipped in the real NFL Draft and could be a serious sleeper in 2009. His name is Rashad Jennings.

So thats my bust for 2009 Maurice Jones-Drew. Maybe you agree and maybe you dont. Whats your bust for 2009?

 

[WigSplitters]

Brett Favre thats all i have

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

Brett Favre thats all i have

He could be. I think hes a risk-reward type of player. Hes either going to play great with AP in Minnesota or show more signs of a aging injured QB past his prime like he did the 2nd half of the season with the Jets.

 

[WigSplitters]

Minny has talent and they added a guy capable of driving the bus and lead Minny to where they want to go!! They do not need an over the hill QB who might not make it a ful lseason or not be in shape enough to make it through a ful lseason like last year. Whe nhe was just not the same Favre, He will hurt minny like he hurt the jets banky in mikes banky

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

Minny has talent and they added a guy capable of driving the bus and lead Minny to where they want to go!! They do not need an over the hill QB who might not make it a ful lseason or not be in shape enough to make it through a ful lseason like last year. Whe nhe was just not the same Favre, He will hurt minny like he hurt the jets banky in mikes banky

Yeah Sage Rosenfels is a solid QB and I think he would win the most improved player of the year award if he ended up starting for Minny. I think Favre though if his arm is healthy can make the Vikings legitimate Super Bowl contenders. He would also upgrade all of Minnys skill players on offense. Guys like Berrian, Harvin, and Shiancoe would easily move up draft boards. I also think it would make Adrian Peterson a lock to be the number 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts.

Id go out on a limb and say Peterson could get 2000 yards if Favre goes to Minny. Heck Thomas Jones went from a 3.6 ypc average to a 4.5 ypc average with Favre at QB in 2008. Think about what Favre could do for AP when he averaged 4.8 ypc even with a heavy workload of 363 carries last season.

 

[deuce4321]

Chris Wells. I know hes a rookie but since I am in the middle of a couple of rookie drafts right now i have rookies on my mind. I think he is a fantastic athlete but think he has landed in a terrible situation in Arizona and I dont think he will be very durable in the NFL.

 

[Miller]

Brandon Jacobs, just not worth a 2nd round pick. It will still be a RBBC and I can't trust a man of that size, with his running style to stay healthy all year. Sure, he'll give you the 3 TD games, he'll also give you the 45 yd and 0 games along with the 4 or so he'll miss....

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

Chris Wells. I know hes a rookie but since I am in the middle of a couple of rookie drafts right now i have rookies on my mind. I think he is a fantastic athlete but think he has landed in a terrible situation in Arizona and I dont think he will be very durable in the NFL.

I actually think the situation in Arizona is pretty good. He has a top passing game to set up holes for him in the running game. I expect a big year from Beanie Wells.

Brandon Jacobs, just not worth a 2nd round pick. It will still be a RBBC and I can't trust a man of that size, with his running style to stay healthy all year. Sure, he'll give you the 3 TD games, he'll also give you the 45 yd and 0 games along with the 4 or so he'll miss....

I agree Brandon Jacobs also scares me in fantasy football. Hes a damn good RB but hes had some injury problems in the past and some up and down play.

I dont think it will be that much of a RBBC this year with Derrick Ward in Tampa. Bradshaw and rookie Andre Brown might get some carries but I expect Jacobs workload to be the same if not more in 2009.

 

[Miller]

I dont think it will be that much of a RBBC this year with Derrick Ward in Tampa. Bradshaw and rookie Andre Brown might get some carries but I expect Jacobs workload to be the same if not more in 2009.

Well if it's the same as 08, then your looking at a full blown RBBC. And it will be, Bradshaw is more talented than Ward IMO and will step into that role without issue.

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

Well if it's the same as 08, then your looking at a full blown RBBC. And it will be, Bradshaw is more talented than Ward IMO and will step into that role without issue.

If the carries for Jacobs are around the same that doesnt mean its still a RBBC. I see the Giants using more short passes this year. Jacobs should get more carries though. I probably should of worded it better. I say he gets around 300 carries.

Bradshaw could step into the role and get more carries but I dont see him being like Derrick Ward and making a strong push for playing time. I dont think Bradshaw is as good as Ward and hes also a smaller back. I see Bradshaw mainly as a 3rd down back. I just dont see Bradshaw getting 182 carries like Derrick Ward had last year.

I think it could become a RBBC if Andre Brown shows what he can do early on. He is a pretty good RB and could end up being a steal for the Giants.

 

[Miller]

300 carries for Jacobs!!! :eek

He would be a broken down mule if he ever got 300 carries the way he runs! The Giants know this and will keep his spit in the same line. Your discounting Bradshaw, he may be small, but kid can play! He is a perfect compliment to Jacobs and will see plenty of playing time. 150 carries is not out of the question and like Ward, if he does well with early opportunities they will feed hi more to keep Jacobs fresh.

I do agree with you on Brown though, he's a wild card, especially if Bradshaw gets in the coaches dog house again or does not produce, Brown could see some carries and do well behind that line. I liked him a lot going into the draft.

If the carries for Jacobs are around the same that doesnt mean its still a RBBC. I see the Giants using more short passes this year. Jacobs should get more carries though. I probably should of worded it better. I say he gets around 300 carries.

Bradshaw could step into the role and get more carries but I dont see him being like Derrick Ward and making a strong push for playing time. I dont think Bradshaw is as good as Ward and hes also a smaller back. I see Bradshaw mainly as a 3rd down back. I just dont see Bradshaw getting 182 carries like Derrick Ward had last year.

I think it could become a RBBC if Andre Brown shows what he can do early on. He is a pretty good RB and could end up being a steal for the Giants.

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

300 carries for Jacobs!!! :eek

He would be a broken down mule if he ever got 300 carries the way he runs! The Giants know this and will keep his spit in the same line. Your discounting Bradshaw, he may be small, but kid can play! He is a perfect compliment to Jacobs and will see plenty of playing time. 150 carries is not out of the question and like Ward, if he does well with early opportunities they will feed hi more to keep Jacobs fresh.

I do agree with you on Brown though, he's a wild card, especially if Bradshaw gets in the coaches dog house again or does not produce, Brown could see some carries and do well behind that line. I liked him a lot going into the draft.

With Derrick Ward gone and his 182 carries up for grabs I can see Jacobs getting 81 more and being around the 300 carry level. It breaks down to about 5 more carries per game. I dont see that being a problem.

Honestly if Bradshaw tries to take Wards job I see him getting hurt. I do like Bradshaw though he is a quick guy who can make plays. I just dont see him getting enough carries for it to be a RBBC.

Im glad were on the same page about Brown. The guy was a steal and should get in some games this year and show what he can do. I wouldnt be shocked if he ends up taking Wards job down the line.

 

[RLLD]

Based on where I see them typically being taken in drafts.

Round 1 - Deangelo Williams - people are taking his brief eruption over a short game-span and crowning him "stud"...I don't buy it

Round 2 - Marion Barber - "bust" might be strong for him as a round 2 selection, but I think he will fall short of expectations

Round 3 - Ryan Grant - stiff competition from a stable of good backs coupled with him actually overachieving means he falls into mediocrity this year

Round 4 - TIE - Chad 85 & Thomas Jones - either one is merely taking up space on your roster this year.

 

[Miller]

Re: MJD

On MJD, I think you are overlooking one MAJOR area that makes him the player he is: Pass Catching!

In ppr leagues he is my #1 RB this year. Why? They did not bring in a replacement for Taylor so the show is now his. Can he handle it? hell yes he can. I expect him to be in the 275 to 300 carry range this year on the ground and push 1200 yds there. Add in 65-70 rec (had 62 last year) for 650 yds and you have a 1800+ yd back with 65 bonus pts from receptions and around 15 TD's and that is some production! The chains will be taken off of MJD this year and he's in store for a big year.

With that said, I don't think there is enough seperation from him to the other backs in the top 10 to make me want to be in the top 3 for a shot at him. I'd rather stay in the middle to end of the draft as there is not real clear top back or backs this season IMO.

As far as Rashard Jennings, man this guy is getting hyped to hell. A nice project, but no real threat to MJD's carries. Expecting anything more than spot duty from him this year is simply wishful thinking.

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

Based on where I see them typically being taken in drafts.

Round 1 - Deangelo Williams - people are taking his brief eruption over a short game-span and crowning him "stud"...I don't buy it

Round 2 - Marion Barber - "bust" might be strong for him as a round 2 selection, but I think he will fall short of expectations

Round 3 - Ryan Grant - stiff competition from a stable of good backs coupled with him actually overachieving means he falls into mediocrity this year

Round 4 - TIE - Chad 85 & Thomas Jones - either one is merely taking up space on your roster this year.

Nice post dude.

I agree about DeAngelo Williams. I actually see Jonathan Stewart in his 2nd year having the better season.

I dont think Barber will be a bust with the amount of GL carries he will see. Having Felix Jones healthy should help Barbers numbers imo.

I hate Ryan Grant. I wouldnt draft that guy if he was available in round 10. I agree with you 100% there.

Thomas Jones is going to slip this year. He also has Shonn Greene looking over his shoulder. As for Ocho Cinco I think he will have a bounce back year. I think a 4th round pick would be solid value depending on whos still available.

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

On MJD, I think you are overlooking one MAJOR area that makes him the player he is: Pass Catching!

In ppr leagues he is my #1 RB this year. Why? They did not bring in a replacement for Taylor so the show is now his. Can he handle it? hell yes he can. I expect him to be in the 275 to 300 carry range this year on the ground and push 1200 yds there. Add in 65-70 rec (had 62 last year) for 650 yds and you have a 1800+ yd back with 65 bonus pts from receptions and around 15 TD's and that is some production! The chains will be taken off of MJD this year and he's in store for a big year.

Im in a ppr league and honestly that doesnt even really matter to me. It is nice but the ppr numbers on a week to week basis wont be enough to even out his weak production he will have because of the problems I expect with the running game due to a poor offense as a whole.

I understand the hype around him and if the line gels quick and he can get past the 8 man fronts he will see weekly then he might just have a huge year. I just think there are too many question marks surrounding him and the team for me to draft him in the 1st round.

When I see guys taking MJD over Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte it really makes me question their judgement.

As far as Rashard Jennings, man this guy is getting hyped to hell. A nice project, but no real threat to MJD's carries. Expecting anything more than spot duty from him this year is simply wishful thinking.

Id take a flier on him late. Hes one of those guys imo who slipped on draft day and will be hungry to prove why he belongs in the NFL. I really think he will be one of the best RBs in the 2009 NFL Draft class when people look back 10 years from now. Ive heard good things about him so far with the Jags. He might not have any solid fantasy numbers this year but if MJD goes down with a injury he could be the steal of the draft.

 

[RLLD]

On MJD, I think you are overlooking one MAJOR area that makes him the player he is: Pass Catching!

Agreed. He is a tough player to gauge for the coming year...still.....

Hopefully he lives up to expectations, but they are so high for him right now just doing well might not be enough for him to avoid "bust", even if it is unfairly applied.

An interesting sleeper with similar skills (though not as profound) is that cat Frank Summers who the Steeler's selected out of UNLV

 

[Miller]

Based on where I see them typically being taken in drafts.

Round 1 - Deangelo Williams - people are taking his brief eruption over a short game-span and crowning him "stud"...I don't buy it

Round 2 - Marion Barber - "bust" might be strong for him as a round 2 selection, but I think he will fall short of expectations

Round 3 - Ryan Grant - stiff competition from a stable of good backs coupled with him actually overachieving means he falls into mediocrity this year

Round 4 - TIE - Chad 85 & Thomas Jones - either one is merely taking up space on your roster this year.

Man, I'm just not feeling these busts at all so far. I don't know what your definition of a brief eruption is on DWill, but he was AMAZING for 3/4's of last year. He started slow and them BOOM! After his first 4 games he was only under 100 yds 4 times and out of his last 9 games, his lowest total was 72 yds (in that one he added 4 TD's)!! Not only did he score 20 TD's last year, he scored 20 TD's in the last 12 games of the year!!!

And talk about consistency, in the last 12 games of the year he was held under 10 fantasy pts in basic scoring leagues only ONE time and that was week 6. Go a step forward, he was only under 15 pts 3 of the 12 games.

Many called the the complete bust of Dwill last year when Stewart was drafted and were dead wrong. Now they are calling it a fluke and still say Stewart will take over....sorry guys, Stewart is a hell of a back, but he's not as talented as DWill and if you are John Fox, why would you mess with something as great as their running game last year?

Expect more of the same here. If anyone falls off in the Carlina backfield it would be Stewart, not from a lack of talent, but a decrease in opps if they run a little less. DWill will still get his.

Barber, can really disagree here. Don't have a strong feeling on him either way.

Grant, you know what, never been a fan, but in the 3rd-4th he's not too bad of a value. Even last year he got 1200 yds.....I won't go out of my way to draft him, but he's not on my avoid at all costs list either.

Jones, not sure what to think here. i want to see how TC shakes out. And on COC, Child, Please!

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

his lowest total was 72 yds (in that one he added 4 TD's)!!

Not to take anything away from DWill. He had a great 2008 season but this game was overhyped too the max. All four of those TDs were 1 yard runs. Thats great for fantasy football but it got overhyped alot last season b/c people saw damn 4 TDs and didnt even realize they were all short yardage scores.

Many called the the complete bust of Dwill last year when Stewart was drafted and were dead wrong. Now they are calling it a fluke and still say Stewart will take over....sorry guys, Stewart is a hell of a back, but he's not as talented as DWill and if you are John Fox, why would you mess with something as great as their running game last year?

I dont think anyone expected the type of year DWill had last year. He exceeded everyones expectations and then some. I will say this though. Stewart is the more talented RB and in the next year or two he will prove it. Honestly if DWill scores 10 TDs total this year ill be impressed. I see a decline in DWills numbers this year. Hes still a good RB but no way he comes close to the numbers he had last season imo.

 

[RLLD]

Man, I'm just not feeling these busts at all so far. I don't know what your definition of a brief eruption is on DWill, but he was AMAZING for 3/4's of last year. He started slow and them BOOM! After his first 4 games he was only under 100 yds 4 times and out of his last 9 games, his lowest total was 72 yds (in that one he added 4 TD's)!! Not only did he score 20 TD's last year, he scored 20 TD's in the last 12 games of the year!!!

And talk about consistency, in the last 12 games of the year he was held under 10 fantasy pts in basic scoring leagues only ONE time and that was week 6. Go a step forward, he was only under 15 pts 3 of the 12 games.

Many called the the complete bust of Dwill last year when Stewart was drafted and were dead wrong. Now they are calling it a fluke and still say Stewart will take over....sorry guys, Stewart is a hell of a back, but he's not as talented as DWill and if you are John Fox, why would you mess with something as great as their running game last year?

Expect more of the same here. If anyone falls off in the Carlina backfield it would be Stewart, not from a lack of talent, but a decrease in opps if they run a little less. DWill will still get his.

Barber, can really disagree here. Don't have a strong feeling on him either way.

Grant, you know what, never been a fan, but in the 3rd-4th he's not too bad of a value. Even last year he got 1200 yds.....I won't go out of my way to draft him, but he's not on my avoid at all costs list either.

Jones, not sure what to think here. i want to see how TC shakes out. And on COC, Child, Please!

Bookmarked for later review..... :xpopcorn: