DSTs Get No Respect

cctekguy

cctekguy

Staff member
I've been getting a little grief in my 7 keeper league because I kept the Seattle DST as one of my keepers.

Now, bear in mind that this is a direct result of the poor talent on my team but I've been popping some numbers and I'm not so sure that this is as silly as it appears.

The old fantasy mantra is that you can pick up a good D anytime or that you should play the match-ups but I'm not so sure we aren't throwing away fantasy points by drafting bench players before we invest in a DST.

Case in point: C.J. Spiller is an obvious 1st round pick this year. Last year he averaged 16 fantasy points per game. The Seattle DST is going off the boards in the 8th round and last year averaged 15 pts per game.

Am I missing something?

Aren't points points, no matter how you get them?

In the drafts I've been involved in (and there aren't that many) picking a DST is a waiting game. No one wants to be the 1st to pick one but when someone DOES the good ones go flying off the boards.

The Bears DST was the one to own last year and I don't think I could have won the SOFFLII championship without them. In fact, there are very few players at ANY position that I could have owned that produced 17 pts per game.

Quick Question: What's the WORST feeling in fantasy football?

My Answer...Getting beat by a non-contender because his DST put up 50 pts.

Just sayin', don't overlook the value of a great DST. They are on the field every week, they never get injured, they never get arrested and they never, ever slap their mother.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
The problem with defenses is that the top 5 ranked defenses hardly ever all finish in the top 5.

Last years top 5 in ADP were SF, Balt, Philly, NYG, and NYJ.

At the end of the season they finished 5th (SF), 7th (NYG), 9th (Ravens), 18th (Jets), 29th (Eagles).

No position has less of the top 5 highest drafted actually finishing in the top 5 in scoring than defenses. Taking any of the "top" defenses off the board in the 8th-12th round is pretty much the worst pick you can make in a fantasy draft.
 
A

Axe Elf

Yeah, there's that, and the fact that they score so inconsistently and unpredictably. A couple fluke pick sixes and you have a 25 point game from your D, but they could just as easily score 3 points if they play a strong offensive team.

Last year, if you just picked up whatever defense was facing the Cardinals every week, you would have had the highest-scoring fantasy defense in football. Granted, you can't always get those teams because some of them are already on rosters, but if you had started all the defenses that faced the Chiefs or the Jets, you'd have had the second-highest scoring defense next to Chicago. So there is almost always a good matchup to take advantage of.

It comes down to the same argument that there is about QBs. Yes, QBs score the most points. But it doesn't matter if QBs score 50-60 points a game--if the tenth-ranked QB scores 2 pts per week less than the top-ranked QB, then it really doesn't hurt you any to get your QB in the 8th round. Same for D's. You probly won't get hurt any by taking a D late, or not taking one at all and just playing the matchups, so it doesn't make sense to spend a pick on them early.
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
I had some thoughts on this.........then elf boy and ER stated how I feel. Not enough separation, no consistency year to year and big fluke games can skew end of year ranks.
 
cctekguy

cctekguy

Staff member
Axe Elf said:
Yeah, there's that, and the fact that they score so inconsistently and unpredictably. A couple fluke pick sixes and you have a 25 point game from your D, but they could just as easily score 3 points if they play a strong offensive team.
Click to expand...

Not trying to rewrite the fantasy football gospels and I am in total agreement with the success that can be found in playing the match ups. (thanks for tracking down those stats) The trouble with playing match-ups is since EVERYONE is doing it you have to pick up your match up Ds a week in advance which means tying up a roster spot.

I will argue with the inconsistency angle, though. Inconsistency is at the very core of fantasy. AP was fantastic last year as far as delivering points every game but those type players are the exception. A good DST is no more inconsistent than many of your early picks. Seattle D scored less than 10 pts 4 times last season. Jamaal Charles scored less than 10 7 times. Chris Johnson 6 times and Frank Gore 5.

ER made a good point about the ADP too. Even if you decided to go after a top D earlier than normal, (I never said anything about the 8th....way too early) how the heck can you really tell which one is going to be the top? When I drafted Seattle last year it wasn't because they were top ranked or because I had some sort of inside information. It was because they had a soft schedule the first few weeks of the season and it would buy me some time before I had to start juggling.

But after all was said and done...What nice luxury to have a DST that I didn't have to fiddle with. Just put them on the field with the same confidence you would Aaron Rogers or Arian Foster.
 
A

Axe Elf

cctekguy said:
I will argue with the inconsistency angle, though. Inconsistency is at the very core of fantasy. AP was fantastic last year as far as delivering points every game but those type players are the exception. A good DST is no more inconsistent than many of your early picks. Seattle D scored less than 10 pts 4 times last season. Jamaal Charles scored less than 10 7 times. Chris Johnson 6 times and Frank Gore 5.
Click to expand...

To me, the argument isn't that they are any more inconsistent than other positions, but against the argument that if a defense can score you 17-20 points, why don't you draft them earlier? To me, part of that answer is because they are almost as likely to get you 3-5 points. Even the Bears went under 10 points 6 times in 2012.
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Not that I'm teaching anyone any new tricks here, but I don't mind rolling with a roster that uses 2 spots for a D. Look to the next week before you get there and beat everyone to the sexy defensive pick up of the week a full week before anyone else spots them.

Then once you're playing them, cut the D you just used last week to get the sexy D for next week. Keep rotating this way, always staying a week ahead of the rest of the angle shooters
 
A

Axe Elf

I figure as long as you're going to pick up one sexy D, you might as well go ahead and pick them both up while you are there. It's always worked for me, and she's never had any complaints.
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
First, I will say, have not read article....however, going to dig into your Seattle comment.....

Using HG's scoring b/c I had i handy....

Seattle was the #2 defense this year. They averaged 9.5 ppg.

The #10 defense was Dallas at 8 ppg.

So from 2 to 10 was 1.5 ppg.....hmmm

Also, consider that the following defenses also were top 10:
KC - #1 - 11.6 ppg
Cincy - #3 - 9.4 ppg
St.l - #4 - 9.4 ppg
Carolina - #5 - 9.1 ppg
Arizona - #6 - 9 ppg
Buffalo - #7 - 8.3
SF - #8 - 8.3
Chicago - #9 - 8.1
Dallas - #10 - 8

Of that top 10, only Seattle (8), Cincinnati (7), st. Louis (10), Chicago (1) repeated in the top 10. That also means that no team had back to back to 5 seasons.

So between high turn over at the top and no separation between most teams.....Sorry not buying a high investment in defenses. Wait till middle of the pack, do your homework, and jump on a hot team early if needed......that sends to give you as much if not a better shot at success than taking a Seattle, SF, or Chicago early like many did this year......only one was really worth it.
 
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cctekguy

cctekguy

Staff member
So, I guess what you are missing in my post (and the article) is the part about "high investment".

No one saying to grab a D in the first 3 rounds, just don't be shy about being the first to grab one.

Seattle D will cost me an 11th to keep. Is that a reach?

Your roster in redraft (starters) is set after 7 or 8 or 9 rounds. Where is the insanity in picking a D as a starter? (round 10, 11, 12) What are you missing out on? A WR4, a back up QB, 2nd TE?

Nah, DSTs should be treated like starters (the good ones, anyway). There's plenty of WR, RB hopefuls later in the draft.
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
cctekguy said:
So, I guess what you are missing in my post (and the article) is the part about "high investment".

No one saying to grab a D in the first 3 rounds, just don't be shy about being the first to grab one.

Seattle D will cost me an 11th to keep. Is that a reach?

Your roster in redraft (starters) is set after 7 or 8 or 9 rounds. Where is the insanity in picking a D as a starter? (round 10, 11, 12) What are you missing out on? A WR4, a back up QB, 2nd TE?

Nah, DSTs should be treated like starters (the good ones, anyway). There's plenty of WR, RB hopefuls later in the draft.
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Your not just spending an 11th in your case though, you are using a valuable keeper spot to keep that D. So not only do you spend the 11th.....you use a keeper spot. To me, that is a high investment.

In a redraft, your first D's start to roll somewhere in the 8-10 rounds usually. WAAAAYYYY to high for me. I'll take the depth at other spots and take a D somewhere in the last 4 rounds or so. Again, I have just as good of a chance hitting on a top 5 defense grabbing one late as you do early, why would you risk it?

I pull ADP for 2013 from MFL on d's. Here are the top 5 D's from drafts this year. On average, taken in the 8 - 10 rd.
1. Seattle - Hit - but for an 8th rounder??
2. SF - Miss - an average fantasy defense, not worth the 8-9 rd value
3. Chicago - Miss - again, just average and cost you a 9th rd pick
4. Houston - Miss - for your 10th rd pick you were the pround owner of the last ranked fantasy defense in the league!
5. Denver - Miss - 11th ranked fantasy defense for a 10th rd pick.....not great value.

Now, here is are the best bargains on defense:
Chiefs - 23rd in ADP - WW pick up in a lot of leagues
Rams - 10th in ADP - End of draft value and a top 5 defense.
Panthers - 19th in ADP - End of draft or WW pick up and a top 5 defense
Cardinals - 12th in ADP - End of draft value and a top 10 defense
Bills - 27th in ADP - WW pick up and a top 10 defense.

All 5 of those defenses ended better than SF and were MUCH cheaper. So go ahead, don't be afraid to be the first to take a defense......just know your much more likely to be disapointed than you will be heppy at the end of the year.
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
Just for entertainment sake....
Top 10 in ADP in 2013 on average scored 7.87 ppg - 5 top 10 D's at the end of the year
Next 10 in ADP (11-20) on average scored 7.31 ppg - 3 top 10 D's
Bottom 10 on average scored 7.08 ppg (WW fodder) - 2 top 10 D's

So on average, i can pick up a defense on the WW and score less than 1 pt less than those taking one of the first 10 defenses off the board.....
 
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