ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
probably from the raiders . . . lol . . .
No no no.. their plan is draft the fastest player.. not the best player.
Drafting with a plan (give me your thoughts)
- Thread starter Jvirtue55
- Start date
No no no.. their plan is draft the fastest player.. not the best player.
Mike
Administrator
The wide sources of ADP from mock drafts has gone a long way toward making this easy to do, and as a result, it has made drafting much easier during the first few rounds.
Just follow ADP, and mix in your strong gut feelings in the top rounds.
Where you will earn your money is from the middle to the end of the draft. This is where ADP is very skewed from all the wide ranges of opinions, and you will have to rely on your own knowledge (or people you trust) to gain the upper hand in your drafts.
derringer007
"Its An Outrage"
bobbeaux
Member
ExperiencedRookie
Well-Known Member
lol . . . i hear ya, but in their mind that's the same thing . . .
Im talking about the reality we all live in.. not the upside down world of Al.
Cooley Cadets
Banned
In the mocks I've done recently I have been working with the ADP throughout the drafts and focusing on the players between my current pick and my next time up as the gauge for who I will select (even if I have eyes on someone else farther down the list). I've been surprised how consistently that has worked out so far.
The only problem now is should/how you work that into a draft that counts?
Mike
Administrator
Not really any science to apply to it. All you can do is look at the range (via adp) where the player has been drafted, and try to look at the likelihood of whether a player might go early or not. If you try to determine your players very conservatively, you will not get burned as often. The bigger risk you take on the players you want, the better the chance of getting burned from time to time.
I have also found that mock drafts, and the heavy analysis of ADP have given a false assumption of where players are going to be drafted when real drafts begin. If you notice, by the time real drafts are about to kick off, MOck drafts have become almost robotic, in that most who are participating, are picking players as a result of where they are going on 1000's of previous mocks.
Once the real drafting takes place, particularly if you are in a private league with people who have a knowledge of players beyond their ADP value, you need to be prepared to reach a little for players you feel are better than their ADP value.
On a final note, if you are drafting against me, and you are high on Julius Jones, you better take him in the first round, or I will take him right out from under you :nannie:
Cooley Cadets
Banned
That is what I was referring to - mocks are all well and good but others are trying different approachs and shifts in trends leading up to the real thing make the ADPs even more skewed as there is usually some lag time before the moves really show up in ADPs as more than a hiccup.
As I recall in the past when it comes to league play there is a very noticable shift in the number of other owners who are eyeing the same players. I have not really pinned down what the factors are for this but I have yet to draft in a league where the selections have matched up as consistently with ADP as mocks.