DMac - Fully healthy? Big 2012?

Phicinfan said:
Very good, yes I basically agreed with you in that there may be 4 or 5 worth taking in the first.

I argue the crap shoot though on value of Rbs in later rounds.

I can tell you my experience, and that is if you want ANY DECENT Wr pts, you have to get at least 2 by round 4, or a high value TE by round 4. The bigger better value Wrs are farther between to me, than the Rbs. Middle to later round rbs like Stewart, Bush(Mia), Sproles(per your pt), Turner and so on can be gotten in drafts after late 3rd round. Hell I got Fred Jackson in 8 or 9 and he was the top Rb for half the damn season. Tell me a Wr you got that late that did that?
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Last year alone:

Nelson
Cruz
Gronk
Graham

Guys drafted late who were top 20 range

Green
Jones
Harvin
Steve Smith
Antonio Brown
Nate Washington (17 in standard scoring)



Hernandez


All available after the 4th and many in the 10 or later.

Eli, Stafford and Cam all went 8th or later in most leagues.

Like AD said, you can pick up talent anywhere if you prepare (and get friggin lucky). IMO, guys like Foster, Rice, Shady, MJD and Forte if he signs give you a huge leg up based on being 3 down backs who get a lot of receiving yards. Like having two players in one. To say you would be reluctant to draft them early just doesn't make sense to me.
 
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gizzil said:
I just said i wouldn't do it. sure, some are worth it. But last year in several drafts i watched jamaal charles go @ #1/#2, alotta Foster 1/2. And Alotta AP MJD 2/3. In one league where the QB only gets 4 pts for a TD, I ended up w AP and Brees (10 team league) I can't remember who i got 1st, probably AP, but it totally screwed me in the end. The likelihood of your RB getting injured during the season is 100%. The likelihood of him to get sidelined multiple games or worse, out for the season or a chunk of it, has to be exponentially higher than other positions. I just think we are seeing less RB's early in drafts, and quite frankly I dont mind being middle to late in Rd 1 cuz I can get one of the top QBs unfailingly. And an early pick in Rd 2 assures you A top receiver or a very elite RB. Even if I wouldnt, having a top 3 or so pick almost compells you to, i get that. I just hope not to get that pick haha - basically, theres no way i let my 1st rounder be a DMac. No way. I agree if he's going to put together a full year, it SHOULD be this one. But if the price is 1st round - hhhhhhhheeeeeeeelll nah[/QUOTE


First off. RBs don't get hurt 100 percent of the time. That's just not true.

Second. Receivers get hurt too. Losing Andre last year screwed owners just as much as losing ADP did (had both in a keeper league and it sucked).

Granted, the RB position has more risk, but with the guys like Foster, Rice, McCoy, MJD and Forte, it's worth it based on the total yards they give you and with the exception of Forte, 12 TDs or more potential. Worth the risk.

I took Charles in a redraft when he "fell" to me at 8th. Sucked but I don't think it was a mistake. I still made the finals because I drafted RBs late who had excellent seasons like Jackson, Matthews and Wells, so that plays to what you are saying about waiting on backs. However, I can't realistically expect to hit on 3 guys like that every year in the 6th round and after.

Anyway, good discussion.
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oh, and what i meant is all RB's miss quarters, halves, plays, have bad games, miss whole games, have SOMETHING nagging throughout the year, and likely more than one thing. Yes in the NFL all players have issues but what i meant is you can pretty much count on all RBs to get a pretty significant injury during the year. A thumb, turf toe, sprain, hammy, head, finger, knee, bursitis, bone contusion, achilles and so on. Even the healthiest throughout the year end up with something and miss some time. Any injury, however catastrophic, to one of your studs is devastating to be sure. Regardless of position. A QB can potentially (and often) never miss a snap. WRs rotate in and out but then so do RB/TE etc. And I shouldnt say I NEVER would take a RB 1st round. I am very reticent to do so however. If I had 8, and brees, brady, rogers were gone... I may have picked charles. Who knows. If I had #1... I probably would have gone Foster and gotten another beast runner @ 20 just in case (Turner was still in play in the draft Im remembering), knowing Eli was gonna slip... Will Eli slip that far this year? doubtful
 
You can't predict injuries. Nobody can. But you can adopt a draft strategy like I've done which devalues "injury-prone" guys slightly because they have an established track record. Just like uber-productive durable guys have an established track record on the other hand.
To bring this whole thread full circle, if Darren McFadden stays healthy for the whole 16-game sked, he's a top-5 overall pick, regardless of scoring format. I don't know how anyone could dispute that based on his per-game production and upside. But the cold hard fact is, you can absolutely not go into your draft with any realistic expectation of winning your league, and select him with your 1st round selection. The same theory applies to Andre Johnson at WR in a PPR league. I personally would never ever touch him in the 1st round. Not because he doesn't have the potential to finish #1 at his position in scoring, but because I can say with almost 100% conviction that I won't have him available for all 16 games.
There are no sure things in life or fantasy football, except death and taxes.
Not even Peyton Manning.
If nothing else, people should read through threads such as this one and appreciate how valuable Favre was throughout his career, both in real football and fantasy.
 
I am beginning to re-assess my opinion on Rbs. If MJD and Forte and Rice hold out of camp, then to me the value drops dramatically, look at Chris Johnson last year.....
 
Phicinfan said:
I am beginning to re-assess my opinion on Rbs. If MJD and Forte and Rice hold out of camp, then to me the value drops dramatically, look at Chris Johnson last year.....
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Good point Phic.....with that said, do you elevate someone like CJ who is now in camp the full time?
 
Miller said:
Good point Phic.....with that said, do you elevate someone like CJ who is now in camp the full time?
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If Hass starts, yes, in a heart beat. If it is the rookie, then I see teams going 8 in the box to make the young qb win. In that case, I think he drops in value some.
 
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