Convince me Matt Forte is worth picking in the top 6

[bodey24]

11 of Fortes 16 games this season will be against teams who were ranked 13th or worse against the run last season. I know this is a different season but I don't think these teams have gotten a whole lot better on defense. With the numbers he put up last year and the teams he will be playing against this year I don't see any signs of him decreasing in production.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Seriously? Olsen is a good tight end...but Early Bennett? What has he done so far in the NFL? Zilch. And that is where the problem lies in my not-so-humble opinion.

Humor doesn't translate well in posts.

I was totally joking.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

What did he have around him last year that has changed this year and will stop him from being a top RB? Forte has more around him this year then last year, so that isn't a reason for him to take a step backwards.

Of all the posts I've read on Forte, this one is the best.

RD, you found the best black and white way of nailing this down.

He was bad ass last year and his situation has only improved.

 

[Bayton]

A lot of Forte's value comes from his receptions yards. Without those, he was not a special rb, very good yes, but not special like A.Peterson. I personally don't recall Cutler being a check down to the RB QB like Orton was. Situations obviously where different of course. But, I'm not totally sold that Cutler maintains the status quo as far as forte's receiving value. I really like Forte, without question. As I'm starting to believe more and more, the top 10's, 15's 20's normally are pretty close to each other no matter who you talk to. If you draft 3rd and the guy you want most is "rated/ranked" lower than that, take him if you want.

The concept of this thread is a little bogus. With Forte being a top pick being more of a consensus, you probably already know the reasons why he is thought of as such. If you don't want to draft him in the top 5, fine. Unless you are just trying to spur an argument, then by all means, convince me he isn't worth a top 6 pick.

Every draft is different, when its your turn, go by your list and make your own decision. Not many sane people predicted Forte or Dangelo Williams to be top 5 rbs before last season. If i recall, it was Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai and S.Jackson. With only Peterson really delivering on those ADPs. Addai was the only one who really tanked where the others were pretty respectable. So, don't worry what # pick you are and what all the mocks are showing. Pick who you want to. Just understand what every decision you make there are trade offs.

 

[Phicinfan]

Okay, look at last year. Tell me please his starting Wrs and his starting Qb........exactly.

Now then, add in a better option at Qb....and what is different?

Kid can catch, run and has no real threat behind him. Lack of Wrs only helps him.....in passing game.

Oh, and for the other.....do the Wrs make the Qb...or does the Qb make the Wrs? I would look at guys like Freeman and such who left GB with Farve and did nothing after it. Look at Seattle Wrs who left Hasselbeck for bad Qb situations. I think for as many times the Wrs helps improve the Qb...the right Qb can improve the Wrs as well.

Kid is a lock for top 5 production as long as he is healthy..and he has no real injury history.

No response Rammy??:headscratch::grin:

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

A lot of Forte's value comes from his receptions yards. Without those, he was not a special rb, very good yes, but not special like A.Peterson. I personally don't recall Cutler being a check down to the RB QB like Orton was. Situations obviously where different of course. But, I'm not totally sold that Cutler maintains the status quo as far as forte's receiving value.

I remember seeing a quote from Cutler talking about Forte's incredible receiving ability.

If Forte is making plays, Cutler will get him the ball.

 

[Phicinfan]

I remember seeing a quote from Cutler talking about Forte's incredible receiving ability.

If Forte is making plays, Cutler will get him the ball.

Especially with those Wrs :koolaid:

 

[efactor]

A lot of Forte's value comes from his receptions yards. Without those, he was not a special rb, very good yes, but not special like A.Peterson. I personally don't recall Cutler being a check down to the RB QB like Orton was. Situations obviously where different of course. But, I'm not totally sold that Cutler maintains the status quo as far as forte's receiving value.

IMO, this is the most important arguement against taking Forte in the first round.

I happen to agree that Cutler won't be checking off nearly as much as Orton did and if his receptions fall to a more reasonable 35-40 range, a lot of his value goes out the window. Also, 4 receiving TDs probably won't happen this year. IMO, he has to repeat the 08 receiving numbers or he won't justify being a top pick and I doubt that will happen with Cutler.

The Forte lovers on the board keep ignoring the huge red flag of 3.9 YPC in 2008 which is a big mistake. He just isn't anything special as a runner, and while I think he will be solid, I just don't see spending a top pick on him, especially a top 2-8 pick.

Another factor is I don't see them giving him the 300 plus carries this year. If that is the case, he will have to have a 1/2 yard increase in his YPC to get to the 1200 Yard range, which is a big increase considering he isn't a big play type back.

Anyway, my spin and I may be off base on the way he is used this year. However, the argument that he is a "sure thing" and anyone not drafting him top 3 doesn't know their stuff is totally unfounded. He had an excellent 08 and while Chicago upgraded the QB position and that will make their overall offense better, it doesn't necessarily translate into better fantasy numbers for Forte.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

The Forte lovers on the board keep ignoring the huge red flag of 3.9 YPC in 2008 which is a big mistake. He just isn't anything special as a runner, and while I think he will be solid, I just don't see spending a top pick on him, especially a top 2-8 pick.

I really think the Cutler factor will take some of the defensive focus off of Forte, allowing him to increase that ugly 3.9.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I happen to agree that Cutler won't be checking off nearly as much as Orton did and if his receptions fall to a more reasonable 35-40 range, a lot of his value goes out the window.

Cutler had 40 receptions to the mix of chumps at RB in Denver. If he's gonna toss it to those morons 40 times, I have to believe that he will get 45-50 balls to Forte.

 

[Bayton]

The Forte lovers on the board keep ignoring the huge red flag of 3.9 YPC in 2008 which is a big mistake. He just isn't anything special as a runner, and while I think he will be solid, I just don't see spending a top pick on him, especially a top 2-8 pick.

The counter point to this argument is that no one feared the passing game so defenses often loaded up to stop the run and Forte, their only formidable weapon offensively. That is why Cutler is viewed as a positive to Forte's value, he validates the passing attack even with unproven WRs. Also there were injuries along the offensive line last season, if i recall correctly.

 

[WesDawg]

Ok, ER already addressed this, but how can anyone that's reasonable wedge Cutler into the "doesn't throw to the RB" stereotype when he's had nothing resembling a competent running game so far in his career? That handles the PPR discussion in my mind, anyway.

Can we please get over the F'ing YPC bullcrap? Rookie 3-down RB behind a mediocre O-Line with no tangible passing game facing a loaded box every down? 3.9 is pretty damn good given those circumstances.

Every SIGNIFICANT aspect has improved for Forte going into 2009, so logic dictates that his counting stats will improve as well. How far they improve is up for debate, but his fantasy football value compared to his peers is certainly not, for a rational individual, at least.

BTW, comparing him to Addai in any realistic manner is like apples and oranges, until such time that Forte demonstrates that he's injury-prone.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Ok, ER already addressed this, but how can anyone that's reasonable wedge Cutler into the "doesn't throw to the RB" stereotype when he's had nothing resembling a competent running game so far in his career? That handles the PPR discussion in my mind, anyway.

Can we please get over the F'ing YPC bullcrap? Rookie 3-down RB behind a mediocre O-Line with no tangible passing game facing a loaded box every down? 3.9 is pretty damn good given those circumstances.

Every SIGNIFICANT aspect has improved for Forte going into 2009, so logic dictates that his counting stats will improve as well. How far they improve is up for debate, but his fantasy football value compared to his peers is certainly not, for a rational individual, at least.

BTW, comparing him to Addai in any realistic manner is like apples and oranges, until such time that Forte demonstrates that he's injury-prone.

Forte doubters.... welcome to school.

 

[WesDawg]

I'm screwed.

Getting the endorsement from ER is like getting the GM's assurance that the head coach/manager is "our guy".

J/K bro.

On an unrelated note, I'd love to participate in one of the SO members leagues since as of now I'm not. If anyone has a Dynasty league or other wise that needs a last minute fill-in, please let me know.

Especially if you're willing to give me Forte at 1.8 ! LOL

 

[efactor]

Forte doubters.... welcome to school.

:biglaugh:

There isn't one valid point in his post and he continues to ignore the low YPC, which is a huge mistake. IMO, it shows that he is not a special RB. He will be solid, but those drafting him early will be disappointed.

I know anyone who doubts Forte got "schooled" in this post and we would be dominated by you experts who will reach for Forte early in the first if we played in the same league. Welcome to the 7th grade........

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

:biglaugh:

There isn't one valid point in his post and he continues to ignore the low YPC, which is a huge mistake. IMO, it shows that he is not a special RB. He will be solid, but those drafting him early will be disappointed.

I know anyone who doubts Forte got "schooled" in this post and we would be dominated by you experts who will reach for Forte early in the first if we played in the same league. Welcome to the 7th grade........

The YPC has been addressed. Did you miss that?

 

[WesDawg]

efactor, can I ask where you live and what's your favorite NFL team?

 

[efactor]

efactor, can I ask where you live and what's your favorite NFL team?

Roseville, CA. 20 miles east of Sacramento and 2 hours from everything............

Been a Niner fan since the early 70's, so no, nothing against the Bears or Forte. I have never said that Forte won't be a good player, but I just think that the thought process that he is a sure thing, that he will improve over last year because of the QB upgrade and that anyone not drafting him is absolutely wrong, is way off base.

And yes, I think Gore is a much more talented player than Forte and will have a bigger season with Singletary's approach to the game.

 

[efactor]

The YPC has been addressed. Did you miss that?

I saw the reasoning. I just don't buy into it.

Gore is in basically the same situation and averaged a 1/2 yard more per carry. (Just using him as an example)

IMO, Forte averaged 3.9 because he has limited ability. Good player but not a great player..........:shake:

 

[WesDawg]

eF............................

First off, nobody's a sure thing. We saw what happened to Brady in week 1 last season and the inexplicable decline of many a stud fantasy player in their prime with no obvious reason.

Second, Forte doesn't even really have to improve at all over last year to justify his draft position. I'd be perfectly happy with a repeat performance.

Third, you can rate whomever you want, wherever you want and I'll never refer to you as wrong. I may however aggressively request that I be included in your league, especially if there's real money involved.

Can't say definitively whether Gore or Forte is the more talented back. That's a "real football" topic. This is a fantasy football thread, which means I prefer raw stats/points over talent. I also prefer guys who I can reasonably count on to be healthy each week without a "questionable" symbol beside their name.

So I'll cut you a deal. You get past the YPC obsession. I'll get past the situational improvement, and we'll just judge Forte on last season's production and assume he'll simply repeat it.

Certainly even you can't provide any tangible data on why we should expect a decline from 2008, right?