Close Call #2: Marques Colston vs Greg Jennings

[Cooley Cadets]

Jennings is my #4 overall wideout ahead of Cal Johnson.

:scared:

Why Remo, why??? Say it ain't so and you are just yank'n my chain here.

Rodgers over Cully or Stafford (for now) I can actually agree with

GB's D over Det's for another year will not get my hackles up

Ryan over Smith will only get raised eyebrows followed by a furrowing of the brow and a lot of questions

But Jennings over our Freak on a leash??? Go back and edit that Jennings is at least #5 on your list BEHIND Cal. Go ahead, do it now. I'll wait.

 

[Remote Controller]

ickle:

 

[Cooley Cadets]

ickle:

NOoooooo

:runaround:

:greenbaysucks:

 

[eaglechick]

i think colston will be a man on a mission this year. i'll take the risk

 

[Remote Controller]

i think colston will be a man on a mission this year. i'll take the risk

Just wanted to make sure you were aware of this.

Latest News
Saints | Colston underwent microfracture surgery in January (Fri May 22, 06:21 PM) - Mike Triplett, of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, reports the procedure New Orleans Saints WR Marques Colston (knee) had on his knee in January was a microfracture procedure to repair a small hole in his kneecap. He has been running on the practice field and should be at full speed during training camp.

Our View: Colston has now missed time in two of his three NFL seasons, and a shoulder injury that cost him a season in college was part of the reason his draft stock fell to the seventh round. Microfracture surgery isn't as risky as it used to be, but it's still reason to pause if you're considering Colston in the late second round

 

[eaglechick]

:hmmm:

 

[Phicinfan]

Just wanted to make sure you were aware of this.

Latest News
Saints | Colston underwent microfracture surgery in January (Fri May 22, 06:21 PM) - Mike Triplett, of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, reports the procedure New Orleans Saints WR Marques Colston (knee) had on his knee in January was a microfracture procedure to repair a small hole in his kneecap. He has been running on the practice field and should be at full speed during training camp.

Our View: Colston has now missed time in two of his three NFL seasons, and a shoulder injury that cost him a season in college was part of the reason his draft stock fell to the seventh round. Microfracture surgery isn't as risky as it used to be, but it's still reason to pause if you're considering Colston in the late second round

:hide: Lance Moore....super sleeper........:thrash:bvious:

 

[Remote Controller]

Lance already became Brees's Wes Welker, and the most important wideout on that squad last year. Colston could actually enter this year as the 3rd option behind Moore and bush.

 

[Bull]

I voted for Colston but didn't mean to. It's Jennings. My arguement here is the same one I used for taking Fitz over Moss. Colston may do as well as Jennings if he stays healthy, if he gets the targets, and if Brees continues to throw for record setting yardages. IF all of those things happen, then he can match or maybe even slightly beat Jennings. However, the risk is not worth the reward. Jennings will be right there with Colston if Colston numbers increase, if they don't, it's Jennings in a landslide.

 

[WesDawg]

For the sake of extrapolating Colston's stats over a full season, I took out the game he suffered his injury, and the first game back after his injury, which gave me an 8 game sampling. These stats are just doubled for simplification.

84 receptions, 1356 yards, 10 TD's

That stat line is extremely realistic for either of these guys and they both carry sizeable upside. They both have similarly weighted pros/cons and the "pro" I personally used as my tiebreaker was Colston is more of a red zone target that Brees prefers for jump-ball type plays. I can see these 2 with equal stats and Colston having an extra TD or 2.

 

[Deacon]

At opening glace you would look read this and think, man, dude's got a good point....then you look at the numbers and see that Jennings was 4th in targets last season at 125 and again think that Deacon is on to something here.....but look a little deeper into the numbers here. Colston was targeted 87 time last season compared to the 125 of Jennings. However, the 87 targets was over 11 games and comes out to 7.9 targets a game, while Jennings' 125 targets is over 16 games and which comes out to 7.8 game. When you look at the numbers, the differences in situation that Deacon point out comes out to an absolute wash when it comes to targets. While NO does spread the ball around more, there is simply a lot more to spread around with their passing game. They just pass a lot more, and I don't see that changing.

This one doesn't come down to target's IMO, it comes down to can Colston stay healthy? Do you want a safe top 10 WR who may not have the upside to get into that top 3 or 5; or so you want the oft injured, yet very high end potential of Colston? He may miss some games due to injury, but of the two has a much better chance of string together a top 3 or 5 season if he's healthy all year.

All comes down to how much you want to gamble. I haven't voted yet and I'm still in the air on this one. this one may come down to how risky my first pick was.....

I thanked you for this post and the illumination that you have shed about last years stats still leads me to the same conclusion.

Looking forward to the coming season I see no reason why Jennings looks will diminish. In fact with an improved running game they will likely increase. I can see several reasons why Colstons looks could decrease. Biggest of which could be Lance Moore's emergence last year. I am sure there will be more plays called specifying him as the primary receiver incorporated into the offensive scheme.

Of course it is only speculation and part of what makes this feature interesting is the matching of very similar players.

All said Jennings seems like more of the sure bet here.

 

[Bull]

For the sake of extrapolating Colston's stats over a full season, I took out the game he suffered his injury, and the first game back after his injury, which gave me an 8 game sampling. These stats are just doubled for simplification.

84 receptions, 1356 yards, 10 TD's

That stat line is extremely realistic for either of these guys and they both carry sizeable upside. They both have similarly weighted pros/cons and the "pro" I personally used as my tiebreaker was Colston is more of a red zone target that Brees prefers for jump-ball type plays. I can see these 2 with equal stats and Colston having an extra TD or 2.

The tie breaker is not potential or one specific "pro". They both have potential and you could easily say that one of Jennings "pros" is the tie breaker. The tie breaker is the proven history. Jennings' history is consistency. Colston's history is injury.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

I can see several reasons why Colstons looks could decrease. Biggest of which could be Lance Moore's emergence last year. I am sure there will be more plays called specifying him as the primary receiver incorporated into the offensive scheme.
.

I don't think Sean Payton has ever called a passing play for 1 particular WR. Brees tosses it to who is open.

 

[Miller]

I ended up going with Jennings here....this could change but the predictability of Jennings for me outweighs the huge upside of Colston in my mind. Still feel Colston could be in for a huge year so this is defiantly close for me....at this point I will play it safe.

 

[Little Big Head]

the microfracture news on Colstons knee is driving down his value a little bit. This is a very close call, but id lean a little toward Colston mostly because I have him on at least 5 dynasty teams and Jennings on none. I did trade Jennings for Colston in one dynasty earlier in the offseason

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

the microfracture news on Colstons knee is driving down his value a little bit. This is a very close call, but id lean a little toward Colston mostly because I have him on at least 5 dynasty teams and Jennings on none. I did trade Jennings for Colston in one dynasty earlier in the offseason

LOL.. That's funny.

You're going with Colston because you own him and not Jennings.

That's some wishful voting right there.

 

[Little Big Head]

LOL.. That's funny.

You're going with Colston because you own him and not Jennings.

That's some wishful voting right there.

yup i know. Shameless

 

[Remote Controller]

yup i know. Shameless

An admission to something we are all gulity of more than we would like to admit!

 

[Miller]

Some good discussion on Colston from another thread between me and RC, going to move it in here:

Colston is kind of reminding me of a certain Tampa Bay Wr named Clayton.

Clayton made a splash the last 13 games of his rookie year with 80 catches, 1200 yards and 7 tds.

Colston finished the last 12 games of his rookie campaign with 70 catches, for 1000 yards and 8 td's. Eerily similar, and I feel you might be crediting Colston alot for Brees's ability over whoever threw to Clayton. :koolaid:


Maybe? ....and they are both 6'4" and 220 lbs.

WHAT??? you hitting the scotch hard again RC

Clayton - 80 - 1193 - 7 his rookie year, then 125 - 1513 - 2 combined in his next 4 seasons! 38 - 484 - 1 is his 2nd best year.

Now to Colston, I don't see how there is any comparision on what he has done to Clayton.

Colston - 70 - 1038 - 8 his rookie year, this year two he IMPROVED! 98 - 1202 - 11. Then last year, in only 11 games he was 47 - 560 - 5, better than any season Clayton has had since his rookie year. And even that production works out to 68 - 1105 - 7 over 16 games......not his sophmore season numbers, but not bad either for being banged up.

Colston had injury issues last year and a down year, other than that he's been fantastic. Clayton had one year and been crap since. No comparison here that I can see.

I guess the Qb's they each had were equal too.......huh?


I have to give you the improvement from Colston the next year, but the let down over his play has been major.

So now your trying to compare their situations instead of saying the players themselves are similar?? Not following you there. Colston's QB has not changed. You stated you see a similarity to Clayton in Colston.....Clayton had one good season, Colston already has has 2 1/2 good seasons and the only reason that was not 3 was he was injured the first half of last season.

But again, where has the let down in his play been? he was injured last year, take a look at his numbers towards the end. he finally got back into game shape and looked like the Colston of old. After his bye it was a different Colston. In 8 games after the bye, when he was back in sync with Brees and the offense he had 42 rec for 678 yds and 5 TD's. If he'd healthy all year and you project those numbers to a full season your looking at 84-1356-10. Numbers good enough to make him the number 5 WR last year. And that would have been on par with his sophmore season. Similar TD's, less catches, more yds.

I just don't see this drop off you are citing, nor do the numbers back up a drop off. If you want to say he's injury prone and that scares you off that is legit, but I don't see a fall off in play one bit.

 

[Remote Controller]

I bowed down to your superior Fantasy football mind Miller.