Close Call #15: Aaron Rodgers vs Kurt Warner

[Miller]

If you need a refresher on the rules for the series or a run down of previous match-ups? Here is the rules and history thread:
"Close Calls 2009" - A Sports Outlaw Exclusive
Remember, this is based on re-draft leagues and non ppr scoring.

Today's Match-up:

Aaron Rodgers vs Kurt Warner

Last Year's Stats:
Aaron Rodgers - 16 gms - 4,038 pa yds - 28 TD's - 13 Int's - 207 ru yds - 4 TD's
Kurt Warner - 16 gms - 4,583 pa yds - 30 TD's - 14 Int's - -2 ru yds - 0 TD's

Today's Match-up is between two QB's who were the two biggest steals at QB in fantasy drafts last year. Rodgers took the place of a legend and despite the team struggling, Rodgers had a great first season as a starter. Rodgers has a lot of upside still but will the Packers continue to pass as much as last year or find a better balance in their offense? Can Rodgers avoid a set back in year two. With Warner you have father time who surprised all with an amazing run that ended with a Super Bowl loss. He has the same amazing weapons by at his age can he stay healthy all season for a second straight year? Will the curse of the Super Bowl loser come into play again? These are just some of the questions you will need to answer in today's close call.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Not so close for me.

Rodgers all day!

 

[WesDawg]

Not so fast, my friend! (Thanks, Lee Corso) Much of Rodgers' production last year was directly correlated to the fact that they were playing from behind alot so his stats were INflated and Ryan Grant's were DEflated. They heavily addressed the D during the offseason and draft. Rodgers did one heluva job establishing himself as Favre's heir apparent, but I'd look for about a 10% decline in his #'s across the board.
Warner will be the clear-cut starter in AZ from day one and has the best trio of WR's in the league, bar none. Combine that with a still shaky defense and a rookie RB and you have one more year of ridiculous passing numbers from old man Kurt.
Warner is the man here, especially since it's a non-keeper format.

 

[bodey24]

I like Rodgers this year. I don't see Warner staying healthy the entire season.

 

[efactor]

I like Rodgers this year. I don't see Warner staying healthy the entire season.

That's my concern with Warner as well. I don't like to predict injury, but the fact that Warner stayed upright for 16 games last year was divine intervention. Just don't see it happening again this year.............

As much as I love Warner, I have to go with Rodgers based on last years numbers and durability. Second year as a starter and won't have the Favre BS to deal with this training camp...........

 

[WesDawg]

I feel ya, Bodey and eF, but for exercises like this I try really hard to use the "all things being equal" approach and try to avoid projecting injuries unless it's someone with an obvious track record.
I know Warner had hip surgery in the offseason, but all reports indicate he's good to go for the season.

 

[Miller]

my issue is in his whole career he has only 3 seasons where he played all 16 games.....and has NEVER played back to back 16 game seasons......I'm not going to gamble and say this will be the first. Due to this, I'll take Rodgers.....the kicker for Rodgers is his rushing stats, 200 yds and 2-3 TD's is a nice bonus.

 

[Bull]

Interesting. We're talking about injury risk with Warner and saying that Rodgers is the safe bet? Prior to last year, Rodgers played in like 3 games and got hurt in 2 of them. I like both of these guys and I like both of their #1 Wrs in Fitz and Jennings. I'll take Warner just because I like Q and Breaston better than Jones, Nelson, Driver, whoever.

 

[Phicinfan]

This to me is a no brainer. Warner won't last the season. Rodgers by a landslide here.

 

[mudloggerone]

I'm going with Warner on this one. Father time has been trying to catch him for a couple of seasons and somehow he stays a step ahead in the chase.

 

[storminn0rm]

I like Rodgers this year. I don't see Warner staying healthy the entire season.

totally agree

 

[Deacon]

I would go with Rodgers here also. Warner will probably have much more yardage but their touchdown totals will most likely be similar. Rodgers will probably have much fewer turnovers (esp fumbles) and has shown that he will give you some rushing yds and run a few tds in during the year.

Rodgers will be more consistent throughout the season. Consistency is more important in FF than overall point totals. Warner could have 400+ yds passing with 3tds one week and less than 200 the next. Warner probably will have more total pts at he end of the season but I would rather have the steady production of Rodgers.

Plus with Warner's age and injury history you can't make a favorable assumption that he will be slinging it well come FF playoff time (remember last year).

 

[Phicinfan]

Last Year's Stats:
Aaron Rodgers - 16 gms - 4,038 pa yds - 28 TD's - 13 Int's - 207 ru yds - 4 TD's
Kurt Warner - 16 gms - 4,583 pa yds - 30 TD's - 14 Int's - -2 ru yds - 0 TD's

I want to call out one major thing here.

Look at these numbers. Other than about 500 yards more passing for Warner, and 200 yards more rushing for Rodgers...they are damn near exactly the same.

So what to me is the key difference?

This was Rodgers FIRST year as a starter. With practically little to no experience. Why would he not be able to repeat...or improve? While in my opinion, Warner has hit his pinacle...and I can only expect him to start to slide. Plus add in as I stated before....that I don't think he survives the year....and the superbowl loss let down.

Just seems clear to me in this case...Rodgers should be the choice.

 

[Bull]

I want to call out one major thing here.

Look at these numbers. Other than about 500 yards more passing for Warner, and 200 yards more rushing for Rodgers...they are damn near exactly the same.

So what to me is the key difference?

This was Rodgers FIRST year as a starter. With practically little to no experience. Why would he not be able to repeat...or improve? While in my opinion, Warner has hit his pinacle...and I can only expect him to start to slide. Plus add in as I stated before....that I don't think he survives the year....and the superbowl loss let down.

Just seems clear to me in this case...Rodgers should be the choice.

How much more can he improve? 4000yrds and 28 TDs. Are you expecting 4500-5000yrds and 35+TDs? I don't see it. Who's going to handle the uptick in yrds and tds from a WR standpoint.

 

[Remote Controller]

What Rodgers accomplished last season was amazing, and he did it without a running game to start off. Jennings, Driver, Jones , Nelson, and Jermichael Finley offer plenty of upside as targets. Rodgers!!

 

[Phicinfan]

How much more can he improve? 4000yrds and 28 TDs. Are you expecting 4500-5000yrds and 35+TDs? I don't see it. Who's going to handle the uptick in yrds and tds from a WR standpoint.

Are you asking more TDs or more yardage?

More yardage may be a stretch..but I think TDs could happen. Young Wrs are up in coming with Jones and Nelson. Jennings and Driver still there. Add a young TE that seems to be progressing..and some improvements to O-line. Could be a great year.

Here is the ticker though......even if he stays put...he will be head and shoulders over Warner this year.

 

[derringer007]

Rogers for the long haul vs Warner's age = Rogers

Warner is one year removed from a great season, wont repeat 2008 stats

 

[Mike]

I will go with Rodgers over Warner. I am expecting the Cardinals to struggle as losing Super Bowl teams historically tend to do, and don't have any faith in him being healthy.

Rodgers on the other hand will likely be in the same situation as last season. A team that loses more than it wins, lacking in leadership, and airing it out from behind regularly.

 

[Sgt John]

16 of you so far picked Rodgers, and you are wrong.

 

[Miller]

16 of you so far picked Rodgers, and you are wrong.

thaanks for the insight......:blah: