Close Call #13: Jonathan Stewart vs Chris Wells

[Miller]

If you need a refresher on the rules for the series or a run down of previous match-ups? Here is the rules and history thread:
"Close Calls 2009" - A Sports Outlaw Exclusive
Remember, this is based on re-draft leagues and non ppr scoring.

Today's Match-up:

Jonathan Stewart vs Chris Wells

Last Year's Stats:
Jonathan Stewart - 16 gms - 836 ru yds - 10 ru TD's - 8 rec - 47 rec yds - 0 rec TD
Chris Wells - Rookie

Today's Match-up pits one of this years top rookie RB's against what was thought to be one of last year's top rookie at this point last year. Stewart was over-shadowed by teammate DeAngelo Williams last year but that does not mean he did not have a great year in his own right. However, the fact remains that he is stuck in a RBBC and he is not the primary ball carrier. Given this, how consistent will he be from week to week? Will Stewart earn a bigger role this year or still be the sidekick to Williams? Can the Panthers repeat thier devestating running game from a year ago, one that produced two startable RB's? In Wells you have a rookie who dominated the college game when he was on the field, but that is the problem, he had his issues with staying on the field. Can Wells shake the injury prone tag and bist onto the scene in Arizona? Will the Cardinals committ to the running game and give Wells enough of a work load to make an impact? Will Hightower steal valuable carries from Wells? These are just some of the questions you will need to answer in today's close call.

 

[cctekguy]

As long as Warner is throwing and Fitz & Boldin are catching the AZ RBs are an after thought.

Carolina has an established running game and even if Stewart plays second fiddle to Williams, he'll have more success than the Cardinals starter.

If Warner goes down, All bets are off.

 

[Phicinfan]

This is a waste of time. Arizona won't even start Wells for the first few games. Hightower will start. Add to that what cctekguy just said about it being a more passing team....and Stewart takes this in a landslide.

Only concern is Stewarts feet and ankles...but then again Wells isn't always the picture of health either.

 

[bodey24]

I'm going with Stewart as well. This isn't even close IMO.

 

[Miller]

Call me a homer.....but I'll take the upside over the limited potential I see in Stewart. No matter how much talent Stewart has, there is little debate to who the most talented RB on Carolina's roster was last season, and it was not Stewart. Dwill blossomed into the RB they were hoping he would be when they drafted him and he was given the majority of the carries. Now Stewart will still get his, but it is due to them running a TON, not b/c they will take away from Dwill. I expect Dwill to still get his 275 - 300 carries, then you'll have Stewart come in as the change of pace and get 175-200 if they follow last years model. if they run even slgihtly less, it will be Stewart who loses carries, not Williams IMO. Unfortunatly until something changes in Carolina personel wise or injury wise, Williams caps Stewarts numbers at around where they were last year.

At the point in the draft where they both are being drafted (Stewart 6.2, Wells 6.4) I would rather take a RB that has a good shot to carry the full load and get me more consistent numbers. Everyone is worried that the Cards won't run enough...well Hightower had as many TD's as Stewart has last year and I can't see Wells not taking his goalline carries. There are a lot of opportunities due to the offense they run. Also, consider that Wells will be running against wide open defenses that are geared to stop the pass, not 8 man fronts geared to stop the run. Also look at the Cardnials 3 playoffs wins last season, their lead rusher over that stretch was Edge with an average of 17 carries a game, that equals to 272 over 16 games. I can see them giving him 15-17 carries a game. I also don't see him not starting from game 1.....and the first game he does start will be one more than Stewart started last season.

They both have injuries issues so I will call it a wash as it is a concern for me with both of them.

In the end, it's all about upside for me. Stewart will be a safe, although inconsistent, 800 yds and 8-12 TD's. Wells has the potential to be more. I'll roll the dice on his takign the reigns in the Desert and preying on defenses geared to stop Fitz and Boldin. If he can stay healthy, he will be OROY.

 

[efactor]

No matter how much talent Stewart has, there is little debate to who the most talented RB on Carolina's roster was last season, and it was not Stewart. Dwill blossomed into the RB they were hoping he would be when they drafted him and he was given the majority of the carries. Now Stewart will still get his, but it is due to them running a TON, not b/c they will take away from Dwill. I expect Dwill to still get his 275 - 300 carries, then you'll have Stewart come in as the change of pace and get 175-200 if they follow last years model. if they run even slgihtly less, it will be Stewart who loses carries, not Williams IMO. Unfortunatly until something changes in Carolina personel wise or injury wise, Williams caps Stewarts numbers at around where they were last year.

Well put. Anyone who actually watched Williams last year saw what a dynamic runner he was. Rare combination of power and breakaway speed. However, I still see a ton of people expecting a 50/50 split this year with Stewart. Not gonna happen.

That said, I still went with Stewart over Wells. Just a gut feeling that Wells isn't going to be a big time back in the pro's and I think that people are overestimating his role in the Arizona offense. Arizona will still be throwing the ball a majority of the time (wouldn't you with Fitz, Boldin, Breaston and Warner) and Hightower showed he is a solid receiver and good goal line back. I don't think Wells gets the carries this year to put up solid FF numbers.

On the flip side, Carolina will run, run and run some more. They lost in the playoffs last year because Fox abandoned the run (god knows why) when they fell behind against Arizona. Lesson learned. Even with a 30-40 percent load, Stewart will put up another 900/8-10 season, which will be better than I expect from Wells.

But as Miller pointed out, Wells is a Home Run candidate, so for those willing to gamble, worth a shot............

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Wells for me. I'll take a #1 over a #2 almost everytime at the same ADP.

 

[WesDawg]

Assuming relatively good health for both guys, I took Stewart and his TD potential to trump Wells' yardage advantage. I really think if not for the nagging stuff last year, Carolina's rushing workload would've been much closer to 50/50 than what it turned out to be. It's a safe assumption to make that Stew will cut into last year's deficit, at least a little bit, and that should push him into the Marion Barber, circa 2006 range. (14 TD's)
Wells should crack 1000 yards by default, but if he's into double-digit scores I'll be awful surprised. He's not exactly operating behind a power-run type of O-line.

 

[derringer007]

Stewart

If it was 2010, might be a different story.

 

[Little Big Head]

Ill take Wells. I like JStew but am not too excited about his situation. No way the Panthers rush for that many TDs again imo

 

[Remote Controller]

I wouldn't consider stewart unless I owned deWill. Wells is gonna get his shot to be this years rookie.

Cardinals | Wells has dropped weight Wed Jul 8, 10:49 AM
Darren Urban, of AZCardinals.com, reports Arizona Cardinals RB Chris Wells has dropped from 247 to 229 pounds since beginning workouts under strength and conditioning coach John Lott. 'I think this kid has a chance to do something. He's got the tools ... He could be a beast,' Lott said of Wells.
Chris Wells player page

 

[Doggface Gremlin]

This is a waste of time. Arizona won't even start Wells for the first few games. Hightower will start.

Id go out on a limb and say Wells is starting week 1. Hightower didnt impress me last year and Wells is easily the better RB between the two. I think Wells is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year for 2009.

I got Stewart ranked 13th and Wells ranked 15th. I think they both will have pretty good years this year. Id give the slight edge to Stewart.

 

[RLLD]

This year = PUSH

Next year, Stewart emerges as either a solid #2, or perhaps #3, pick for the next four years.

 

[joefan71]

Don't kid yourself, with Whisenhunt making the calls Wells will start. Carolina has the tougher schedule of the two. That may actually be to Stewart's advantage. Carolina is a run first offense with an o-line built for running. Arizona's o-line was the worst run offense last year and won't improve that much. Well's was great in college; this isn't college.

Stewart all the way.

 

[Sgt John]

I went with Wells. DWill is the real deal. Wells could basically roll uncontested.