Close Call #10: Kellen Winslow vs Greg Olsen

[Miller]

If you need a refresher on the rules for the series or a run down of previous match-ups? Here is the rules and history thread:
"Close Calls 2009" - A Sports Outlaw Exclusive
Remember, this is based on re-draft leagues and non ppr scoring.

Today's Match-up:

Kellen Winslow vs Greg Olsen

Last Year's Stats:
Kellen Winslow - 10 gms - 43 rec - 428 rec yds - 3 rec TD
Greg Olsen - 16 gms - 54 rec - 574 yds - 5 rec TD's

Today's Match-up is between two TE's who seem to be in different places in their careers. For Winslow it's all about a fresh start in TB. He's always had the talent, but there always seems to be something with him. Can he put it all together in TB? Will his QB situation hold him back? With Olsen you have a rising star at the position with a new gun slinger at QB. Is this the last thing that Olsen needs to take it to the next level? Can he continue his maturation process in the league? These are just some of the questions you will need to answer in today's close call.

 

[chrisslabaugh]

I have no love for Olsen

 

[Remote Controller]

Olsen in a romp! :koolaid: Evil Knievil is a piece of crap!

 

[WesDawg]

This shouldn't be close.

Olsen's situation is improved over every other TE in the game, whereas Soulja Boy finds himself smack dab in QB hell.

Not to mention the fragility factor.

 

[German CTL]

Olsen gets my vote. I have no confidence at this point in Winslow as a Buc.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

No Close Call here at all.

As some have stated here already, Winslow's situation is garbage. His QB blows, the team is on the decline, and he can't seem to stay on the field.

Then there are others who have stated how improved Olsen's situation is.

I agree with both of these which makes this a run away for me.

Plus Olsen looks like He-Man, so he wins!!

 

[bodey24]

I like Olsen better this year.

 

[cctekguy]

Olsen and Forte are the only guys Cutler has to throw to. I take Olsen in a runaway.

 

[WesDawg]

He's got other viable targets who will benefit from having him slingin' instead of Kyle Noodlearm, but as Scheffler in Denver will tell you, he digs the TE.

Put it this way, Chicago has one of the easiest scheds this year, and when the weather gets poopy, it's easier to dump it across the middle to a cutting TE than it is to fling it deep to Hester. That's real important when the fantasy playoffs roll around.

I'm drafting Olsen right behind the big-4 (Witten, Gates, Gonzo, Clark) and just ahead of Chris Cooley and Owen Daniels. Soulja isn't many spots behind but it's a dropoff.

I may actually prefer him over Dallas Clark since DC's never made it unscathed through a 16-game slate.

 

[RZR]

Sorry Kellen, you might be wearing the pirate ship on your shoulder this year but the only thing you'll be sailing away with is pity. Your apple fell way too far from the tree. Maybe daddy can give you some pointers.

Olsen has my vote.

 

[Phicinfan]

Damnit...I wish these were not so close......

Okay, I understand and can follow along with the hype for Olsen. Why? Because I have been a Scheffler owner for two years in a dynasty league...and Cutler is good enough to find all his targets...including a TE that can catch and get free of coverage. Plus...add in the LACK of talent at Wr and you have a hole to fill. So this is a lock right? No. Why? Because you also have some young Wrs that are stepping up it sounds like. You also have the OTHER Clark at TE to steal some catches as well.

Now for Winslow. He went from an awful team where he was option 1A in the passing game.......to an Awful team where he will once again be option 1A. What is the difference? The Qb. At least in Cleveland...the Qb was viable...to a point. Until we know who the Qb in Tampa will be....I am not loving this move. If they decide to start Freeman.....Winslow will be lost. If they start McCown....no on will know.

Net......for the lack of an answer at the Qb position...I will lean to Olsen here. But once we see the offense play some....and we see if they find Winslow...and he is healthy...I may stray back at a later date.

 

[Cooley Cadets]

Did Winslow ever have an established QB? When Anderson surprised everyone with a productive season KW's #'s skyrocketed but even with the likes of Rattay at the helm he produced #'s that were comparable with Olsen. TB's QB situation may not be ideal but it is better than what Kellen started out with. The concern is how many games he will be able to take the field not what he will be able to do when he is on it. I am willing to gamble that he plays a full (or at least close to a full season) and outproduces Olsen again.

P'fan has Olsen covered pretty well. There are other options that are developing and this is his 3rd year so lets hope he can finally establish himself enough to further reduce Desmond's numbers. If he can not expect a good season but not one that will allow him to be catagorized as a potentially elite fantasy TE - something Winslow could do with another successful season.

 

[storminn0rm]

Olsen gets my vote

 

[Phicinfan]

Did Winslow ever have an established QB? When Anderson surprised everyone with a productive season KW's #'s skyrocketed but even with the likes of Rattay at the helm he produced #'s that were comparable with Olsen. TB's QB situation may not be ideal but it is better than what Kellen started out with.

I will disagree here. If McCown or Freeman start...it is worse there than anywhere he has been. Period. Leftwich...if he can get time to throw would be a different matter.

The concern is how many games he will be able to take the field not what he will be able to do when he is on it. I am willing to gamble that he plays a full (or at least close to a full season) and outproduces Olsen again.

I agree...the injury issue is a concern. I will give him credit in that he has had knee issues and played through them. Still don't like the situation as much though.
*edit to add* then again, Olsen hasn't been the perfect picture of health either.

 

[Miller]

My personal opinion is can I have another choice? I doubt I will be in the market for either in the 6th/7th rd. I voted for Olsen, but this is more of a vote against Winslow then a vote for Olsen. I just don't trust Winslow so i will pass on him.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Although I'm a big Olsen supporter, Miller has a point. You can wait a full 2 rounds later and get a Chris Cooley, Owen Daniels type without hardly missing anything. Olsen has a little more upside than these 2 but it's not by much.

Problem is that after these 2 come off the board you're pretty much screwed and need to score big on a late round gem.

 

[Birdman]

Olsen, no doubt about it

 

[WesDawg]

Cooley usually goes before Olsen in the mocks I've done, Daniels goes a bit later but he's grumbling about a contract and the Texans drafted James Casey.

Back to Winslow, even during his 2 good/healthy seasons (out of 5) his high-water mark for TD's was only 5. Olsen had 5 last year in his 2nd season with a below-average QB in a run-heavy scheme.

Don't get me wrong, Soulja's 1,106 yards in '07 were great, but there is absolutely no way he approaches that ever again.. especially now that he'll have a below-average QB in a run-heavy scheme. He made his hay when D. Anderson broke out and was airing it out all over the yard to him and Uber-keeper Braylon Edwards. ( LOL, sorry )

Don't fall in love with the name on draft day. You can get 9 or 10 better options than him.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

Maybe I'm just a hopeful fan, but I think Kellen has a better career than people here are giving him credit for. I understand that Olsen will likely out perform Winslow this year, but I think Kellen has the talent to be one of the best ever. How many best evers have we seen in crappy QB situations? How many best evers were great, not because their team was great?

 

[Little Big Head]

Ill take Winslow, but its close for me. I think Winslow will be more of a focal point of the TB offense than Olsen will for the Bears. Is Olsen still splitting targets with Desmond Clark?
In a dynasty Id go Olsen, redraft ill take Winslow