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Axe Elf
I've been working on the companion piece to my other article, but I've been kinda busy lately, and it's taking longer than I'd hoped. So I'll just give it to you in pieces. Here then is Chapter One of Volume Two of the Axe Elf Love/Hate Series.
Ok, you’ve all let Axe Elf set you straight about some draft darlings who are getting too much love in the preseason, but if you can’t draft them, who CAN you draft? Who are the wallflowers that aren’t getting the respect they deserve? Never fear, Axe Elf is here--with some guys you should be targeting to maximize your ADP value.
Quarterbacks
The 9th QB coming off the draft boards this summer is the QB that finished 10th in QB fantasy scoring last season. That seems to be about right at face value--but when you consider that he was a rookie last season, and that he didn’t really get rolling until the second half of the year, you can see that there’s some upside value to be had at his current ADP of 7.08. Over the last 8 games of 2012, Russell Wilson averaged 23.57 fantasy points per week, and scored under 16.9 points only once. The first QB off of most draft boards, Aaron Rodgers, only averaged 21.48 fantasy points per week, and scored under 16.9 points seven times on the season--heck, the league leader in fantasy scoring, Drew Brees, only averaged 21.60 fantasy points per week and scored under 16.9 points five times! The Seahawks added Percy Harvin to his arsenal in the offseason, too. Scary.
The 10th QB off the draft boards was last year’s 5th-highest scoring fantasy QB, even after missing a couple of games. However, it’s that injury that is keeping him mired in a 7th round ADP. Expect Robert Griffin III to move up the draft board a couple of rounds as the preseason progresses and his recovery shows itself to be complete--but he’s a nice gamble to take at this point in early preseason drafts.
You would hardly expect the 12th QB off the board to be startable in most midsized leagues, but with an ADP of 8.04, this one threw for 4903 yards in 2012 (3rd in the league) and 28 TDs (6th in the league). He had 9 games over 300 yards, and 3 games over 400 yards passing. He finished 8th among QBs in overall fantasy scoring, and like Wilson, he was coming on a little toward the end of the season as his new favorite WR developed into one of the league’s elite. The final 8 games, Tony Romo threw on a 5018 yard, 36 TD pace. That could move him into the top 5 in 2013.
The #17 QB in overall fantasy scoring last season has moved on to a team with much better receivers--the TE led his previous team in receiving yards, and no receiver on that team had more than 7 TDs. Despite having to throw for the woeful Raiders, Carson Palmer finished 10th in passing yardage and 16th in passing TDs in 2012, and could be on the cusp of breaking into the top 10 overall this year. He now finds himself in an offense that features aggressive downfield passing, and a potential Hall of Fame WR in Larry Fitzgerald. However, Palmer is kind of the Rodney Dangerfield of QBs so far, as he is typically the 21st QB selected.
Ok, you’ve all let Axe Elf set you straight about some draft darlings who are getting too much love in the preseason, but if you can’t draft them, who CAN you draft? Who are the wallflowers that aren’t getting the respect they deserve? Never fear, Axe Elf is here--with some guys you should be targeting to maximize your ADP value.
Quarterbacks
The 9th QB coming off the draft boards this summer is the QB that finished 10th in QB fantasy scoring last season. That seems to be about right at face value--but when you consider that he was a rookie last season, and that he didn’t really get rolling until the second half of the year, you can see that there’s some upside value to be had at his current ADP of 7.08. Over the last 8 games of 2012, Russell Wilson averaged 23.57 fantasy points per week, and scored under 16.9 points only once. The first QB off of most draft boards, Aaron Rodgers, only averaged 21.48 fantasy points per week, and scored under 16.9 points seven times on the season--heck, the league leader in fantasy scoring, Drew Brees, only averaged 21.60 fantasy points per week and scored under 16.9 points five times! The Seahawks added Percy Harvin to his arsenal in the offseason, too. Scary.
The 10th QB off the draft boards was last year’s 5th-highest scoring fantasy QB, even after missing a couple of games. However, it’s that injury that is keeping him mired in a 7th round ADP. Expect Robert Griffin III to move up the draft board a couple of rounds as the preseason progresses and his recovery shows itself to be complete--but he’s a nice gamble to take at this point in early preseason drafts.
You would hardly expect the 12th QB off the board to be startable in most midsized leagues, but with an ADP of 8.04, this one threw for 4903 yards in 2012 (3rd in the league) and 28 TDs (6th in the league). He had 9 games over 300 yards, and 3 games over 400 yards passing. He finished 8th among QBs in overall fantasy scoring, and like Wilson, he was coming on a little toward the end of the season as his new favorite WR developed into one of the league’s elite. The final 8 games, Tony Romo threw on a 5018 yard, 36 TD pace. That could move him into the top 5 in 2013.
The #17 QB in overall fantasy scoring last season has moved on to a team with much better receivers--the TE led his previous team in receiving yards, and no receiver on that team had more than 7 TDs. Despite having to throw for the woeful Raiders, Carson Palmer finished 10th in passing yardage and 16th in passing TDs in 2012, and could be on the cusp of breaking into the top 10 overall this year. He now finds himself in an offense that features aggressive downfield passing, and a potential Hall of Fame WR in Larry Fitzgerald. However, Palmer is kind of the Rodney Dangerfield of QBs so far, as he is typically the 21st QB selected.
