A
Axe Elf
Some players are getting too much love this preseason, in both mock and real drafts. Always willing to bring the ying to bang the yang, Axe Elf offers up a healthy dose of reality to balance out the hearts and flowers with some skulls and crossbones that label these guys as the fantasy team poisons that they are.
This isn’t necessarily a “bust” list, in that many of these guys will still be serviceable fantasy players in 2013. This is, however, a list of 20 players to avoid at their current ADP. All of them are being drafted in the first four rounds of your typical 12-team drafts--and I’m about to tell you why they will be a disappointment at the price you will have to pay for them.
Quarterbacks
Let’s start with a QB who put up these glittering weeks in 2012:
Wk/Yds/TD/INT/Fantasy Points (1/25, 4, -2)
2/219/1/1/10.76
3/223/0/0/8.92
8/186/2/0/15.44
11/236/2/1/15.44
12/219/1/1/10.76
13/286/1/1/13.44
14/173/0/0/6.92
Seven of the first fourteen weeks--half the fantasy season, including critical weeks 11, 12, 13 and 14--this QB put up fantasy clunkers. So where is he being drafted this year? The 10th or 12th round, right? Would you believe he is usually the first QB off the board with an ADP of 2.07? Yes, these are the numbers of none other than Aaron Rodgers, who was occasionally drafted #1 overall in 2012. Greg Jennings is gone, GB expects to have a better rushing attack this season between Johnathan Franklin and Eddie Lacy, and the team faces a schedule of opponents that cumulatively allowed the 19th-most points to opposing QBs last season. (In 2012, Rodgers faced a schedule of teams that had cumulatively allowed the 11th-most points to opposing QBs in 2011). Granted, Rodgers put up a few ungodly games (338/6/0, 365/4/0, 319/4/1) to finish 8th in yards and 2nd in TDs among QBs, but I would rather have a QB I can count on for steady 17 to 20 point games than one that will win two or three games by himself and then disappear for half the season--while costing me a second-round pick in the process.
Since 2007 under Sean Payton, the Saints have rushed for more than 1600 yards as a team only twice. One of those years was the season they won the SuperBowl, when they rushed for over 2100 yards in 2009. Payton has publicly stated that it is his goal this season to re-emphasize the rushing attack and seek the more balanced offense that the team had in that year of glory. Since 2006 in his years with the Saints, Drew Brees has thrown for fewer than 4400 yards only once--the season they won the SuperBowl rushing for over 2100 yards in 2009. In 2013, Brees faces a slate of defenses that cumulatively allowed the 30th-most points to opposing QBs last season--the third-hardest QB schedule in the NFL. I can think of better chances to take with my 3.01 pick.
Cam Newton finished 2012 as the #4 QB in fantasy scoring. 122 of his 323 fantasy points came from his 741 yards rushing and 8 rushing TDs. New offensive coordinator Mike Shula is not a fan of the zone read packages that allowed Newton to rack up such gawdy rushing stats, and is working on keeping Newton in the pocket this season. He may not be entirely successful, but if Newton lost just 200 yards off his 2012 numbers, he would drop from #4 to #8, and if he lost 300 yards and 3 TDs, he would drop from #4 to #12. I don’t want to take the #10 QB in the fourth round.
Running Backs
Yeah, ok, I can only hate Adrian Peterson so much, but regression to the mean says that it IS hard to repeat a stellar year, and he DOES face the third-toughest slate of defenses against opposing fantasy RBs in the league. Perhaps the best reason to fade Peterson this season is that in the two money leagues I have already drafted, I had the overall #1 pick in both of them--so my having Peterson in two money leagues already pretty much guarantees that he will be out for the season by Week 3. I know, you’ll look like a noob if you have the overall #1 pick and don’t take Peterson, but hey, don’t say you weren’t warned.
Ray Rice finished 6th among fantasy RBs in non-PPR scoring last season. Although the Chicken Littles of the world are probly overstating their case, and the Bobby McFerrins of the world are probly not worried enough--Bernard Pierce IS a concern. I really don’t see any reason that Rice should do any BETTER in 2013 than he did in 2012, and there are a few legitimate reasons that he could do worse. These include a potential increase in Pierce’s touches, the departure of Vonte Leach, a depleted defense that may force the Ravens into catch-up passing mode more often, and last but certainly not least, the most difficult schedule of defenses faced by any NFL RB corps this season. I would be surprised if Rice doesn’t drop out of the top 10 RBs in non-PPR scoring this season, although in PPR leagues he should fare slightly better.
LeSean McCoy was one of the top 3 RBs off the board in 2012 after his career year in 2011. However, that same offensive system left him outside the top 20 RBs by season’s end (right behind Mikel LeShoure). In all fairness, he did miss four games with an injury, but his two rushing TDs on the season didn’t exactly make him a coveted commodity the rest of the year, either. I’m not sure why everyone thinks he will be back as a top 10 RB this season, with a new offensive system, a rookie NFL coach, what promises to be a lingering QB controversy--and perhaps most importantly, the fifth-hardest schedule for RBs in the league. Maybe he will, but I can’t bring myself to hang a first round pick on those circumstances.
Another rookie NFL coach, with a rookie QB as well (or maybe a crappy journeyman QB instead) and no WR being drafted in the top 35 at their position don’t bode well for a fantasy RB, even one as elusive and promising as C.J. Spiller. He was a yardage beast in 2012 (1703 combined rush/rec), but only managed to score 6 rush TDs and 2 receiving TDs--and 4 of those 8 TDs occurred in the first three weeks of the season. I’m not sure the Bills’ offense will put in him position to score much more often this year, and remember those years under Sean Payton when the Saints failed to reach 1600 yards rushing? New Bills’ Head Coach Doug Marrone was the Saints’ offensive coordinator in 2007 and 2008 when they recorded 1466 and 1594 team rushing yards respectively. Over his four years at Syracuse, Marrone’s teams averaged 76.25th in the nation in rushing. I don’t think that his offense is going to be much of a help to Spiller. The only silver lining for Spiller is that Buffalo faces the 3rd-easiest schedule for RBs in 2013--but his ADP is sitting right there where Calvin Johnson, as the best WR in the game, starts to look more attractive than the seventh or eighth RB.
Matt Forte is often one of the first second-round RBs off of the board with an ADP of 2.03. Why? Is it because Forte is one of the worst goalline RBs to ever play the game, having converted only 12 of 98 career goal-to-go carries into TDs? (As a Bear, Michael Bush has converted 5 of 11.) Is it because Forte hasn’t had 10 TDs in any single season since he was a rookie (2008)? Is it because he has scored 10 total rushing AND receiving TDs in the LAST TWO SEASONS COMBINED (with 6 in 2012)? He has also missed at least one game each of the last two years with injuries, so maybe his exceptional durability makes him more attractive. I might pick up Forte as a late 2nd round selection in a PPR league, but he’s not likely to be more than a pedestrian RB2 in standard scoring.
Let’s play the “Guess Who Put Up These Numbers” game again:
Wk/Rush Yds/Rush TDs/Rec Yds/Rec TDs/Fantasy Points
1/4/0/47/0/5.1
2/17/0/11/0/2.8
3/24/0/5/0/2.9
5/24/0/5/0/2.9
13/51/0/20/0/7.1
14/44/0/15/0/5.9
16/28/0/13/0/4.1
Again, seven games out of the fantasy year shot down--including critical weeks 13, 14 and 16--you might as well have started Danny Woodhead or Ronnie Brown. Like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson has scored 10 TDs in the last two seasons (and like Forte, 6 in 2012) with ZERO receiving TDs over that stretch. If that wasn’t bad enough, his team has added a new power RB (Shonn Greene) to vulture his scoring chances even further, yet people are still drafting CJ2k at 2.05 on a regular basis! Inconceivable!
Let’s drop down to ADP 2.06 and select a RB who is not yet fully recovered from a Lisfranc injury that cost him the latter two-thirds of the 2012 season, who showed up out of shape at OTAs, and who is facing a civil suit in which he is accused of assaulting a security guard at a restaurant. Given the likelihood of the league cracking down on legal issues off the field in the wake of the Hernandez fiasco, there’s more downside than upside to Maurice Jones-Drew. Denard Robinson might eat into his production as well, assuming MJD even gets on the field this season. And we ARE talking about Jacksonville here.
The San Francisco backfield isn’t getting any less crowded, and Frank Gore isn’t getting any younger. The Niners face the fourth-easiest schedule for RBs, but there are guys in the third and fourth round who have just as much potential as Gore. I’d rather use my second round pick on a top WR--or at least a more promising RB like Ridley.
I think the RB position is far from settled for the Giants. Way too far unsettled to be using a mid-3rd-round pick on David Wilson. He has struggled with pass protection, he needs to cure his fumblitis, and Andre Brown will likely be hawking the goalline carries--at least. Maybe if you get points for his work on kick and punt returns you could be excused, but on second thought, no, not really, not in the third round--not when the Giants face the 7th-toughest schedule against the run in the NFL.
Montee Ball is a rookie. John Fox doesn’t like to play rookies. I don’t like to draft rookies who play for John Fox--who stuck it out with an inferior DeShaun Foster after drafting DeAngelo Williams in 2006. It was 2008 before Williams saw any significant playing time--and THEN he put up 1600 yards and 20 TDs. Fox may bring Ball along quicker than that--and Denver faces the sixth-best schedule for RBs--but Hillman and Moreno are legitimate competition in the backfield of a pass-first offense. Therefore, I don’t have the ‘nads to put any Balls on my team in the 3rd round.
The Jets rushing scheme put an end to the career of Hall of Fame RB LaDanian Tomlinson. Over-hyped Shonn Greene was a bust wearing his namesake color. (Yeah, ok, he had a game with 161 yards and 3 TDs last year, but then he went 900/5 for the rest of the season.) Now a RB who has 8 TDs in his three-year career, and isn’t much of a receiving threat out of the backfield (32 career receiving yards, 0 rec TDs)--in fact, he was the fourth RB on his previous team behind Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas--is going to come in and be worth a fourth-round pick? I don’t think so. Not even the easiest schedule for RBs in the league is going to keep Chris Ivory from being a B-U-S-T Bust! Bust! Bust!
Wide Receivers
Of the top half-dozen WRs being drafted, Brandon Marshall has the most potential to move backwards this season. The Bears do face the fourth-easiest NFL schedule for receivers, but I think that just opens up opportunities for some of their other players to step up and take a piece of Marshall’s pie. I would expect Alshon Jeffery to improve on his 367/3 rookie season, and while the Bears’ TEs were pretty much invisible in 2012, newly-acquired Martellus Bennett can be expected to grab at least 4 or 5 scores as well. That will make it difficult for Marshall to get back to double-digit TDs, and if he were to lose 200 yards and 3 TDs off his 2012 numbers, he would be on the cusp of falling out of the top 10 fantasy WRs.
Marques Colston always seems to finish around that top-10 cusp as well, but his season totals are usually the result of having a few monster games--and then being frustratingly mediocre the rest of the season for his fantasy owners. Last year was no different; Colston sat as the #11 fantasy WR after the season with 1154 yards and double-digit TDs. However, from his Week 6 bye through Week 16, Colston scored only four of his ten total TDs (with none in playoff Weeks 13-16), and tallied more than 75 yards only once--posting under 50 yards three times. With Sean Payton seeking to re-emphasize the run, and the Saints facing the most difficult schedule for WRs in all the league, I can’t draft Colston like a top 15 fourth-round prospect.
Quickly becoming the forgotten receiver in the arsenal of Packer targets, Jordy Nelson can’t be expected to return to his 2011 glory. Nelson may continue to be a threat to catch the deep ball (he had catches of 40+ yards in 4 of his 12 games last season), but he’s not going to compete with Jones, Finley, Cobb, and possibly even one of the new RBs for red zone targets. When you live and die by the long TD, you get inconsistent results. Jordy posted 0.0, 1.0, 1.9, 2.9, and 4.5 fantasy points in 5 of his 12 games last season. That gives you more headaches than victories, and I can’t draft him like a top 15 fourth-round prospect either.
The final fourth-round prospect to be discussed here is Wes Welker. We all kind of got used to Welker being Tom Brady’s security blanket and a PPR beast over the past few years, but that’s all over now. We need to recognize that and move on. Welker will go from being the featured receiver on his team to the 2nd or 3rd receiver on his team, and that is basically going to cut his receptions and yardage totals in half. Welker caught 118 balls for 1354 yards and 6 TDs last year as a Patriot; he’s probably looking at something much closer to the range of 60-65 receptions and 700-800 yards this year, although I could see him retaining the lion’s share of those 6 TDs. His 110 fantasy points or so won’t be enough to keep him in the top 30 at his position, though--and he’s still being drafted in the fourth round?
Tight Ends
Since there aren’t that many TEs being drafted in the first four rounds anyway, I will expand the TE pool to include those with ADPs in the first ten rounds.
Kyle Rudolph has become kind of a sexy TE prospect this preseason. I think this is largely because he finished last season tied with Jimmy Graham for second among TEs in TDs--their 9 trailed only Gronkowski’s 11--and because he is going into his third season in Minnesota. However, when you look closely at his numbers, they’re really kind of scary for a guy you want to hang your TE hat upon. First of all, almost all of Rudolph’s fantasy value was predicated on him catching a TD. In the 8 weeks he did not score, Rudolph netted more than 2.2 fantasy points only once--including three weeks without recording a single catch--you could have started Axe Elf at TE and been no worse off for it. Rudolph caught only 53 of his 93 targets last season, and had only 9.3 yards per catch. In his final four games, when his owners were counting on him the most, he averaged 20.25 yards per game and had just one score. It should be noted that if Rudolph can’t step it up any more than this when Percy Harvin was sidelined and it was down to Jarius Wright, Jerome Simpson and Michael Jenkins as competition, how is he supposed to take a step forward with Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson in town? Need another reason? How about Minnesota facing the third-hardest schedule for TEs this season? Give me Dennis Pitta a round earlier and I’ll be happier.
The Rams’ TE hasn’t been worth any more than a backup roster slot since, like, well, I don’t remember. I do know that the 519 yards and 4 TDs that Lance Kendricks had last season are the most of any Rams TE in either category this century (although it certainly helped that Amendola was injured for a stretch or two). Now there’s a new kid in town, Jared Cook, who hasn’t really set the world on fire in his first three seasons with Tennessee, where he averaged just under what Kendricks posted last year--547 yards and 2.67 TDs per season. I would look for more of the same out of him in St. Louis, which makes him about the #20 TE in fantasy scoring (Kendricks was #18 last season). So why would anyone draft him as the 10th TE off the board in the 9th round?
Because I’m Axe Elf, and they’re not.
This isn’t necessarily a “bust” list, in that many of these guys will still be serviceable fantasy players in 2013. This is, however, a list of 20 players to avoid at their current ADP. All of them are being drafted in the first four rounds of your typical 12-team drafts--and I’m about to tell you why they will be a disappointment at the price you will have to pay for them.
Quarterbacks
Let’s start with a QB who put up these glittering weeks in 2012:
Wk/Yds/TD/INT/Fantasy Points (1/25, 4, -2)
2/219/1/1/10.76
3/223/0/0/8.92
8/186/2/0/15.44
11/236/2/1/15.44
12/219/1/1/10.76
13/286/1/1/13.44
14/173/0/0/6.92
Seven of the first fourteen weeks--half the fantasy season, including critical weeks 11, 12, 13 and 14--this QB put up fantasy clunkers. So where is he being drafted this year? The 10th or 12th round, right? Would you believe he is usually the first QB off the board with an ADP of 2.07? Yes, these are the numbers of none other than Aaron Rodgers, who was occasionally drafted #1 overall in 2012. Greg Jennings is gone, GB expects to have a better rushing attack this season between Johnathan Franklin and Eddie Lacy, and the team faces a schedule of opponents that cumulatively allowed the 19th-most points to opposing QBs last season. (In 2012, Rodgers faced a schedule of teams that had cumulatively allowed the 11th-most points to opposing QBs in 2011). Granted, Rodgers put up a few ungodly games (338/6/0, 365/4/0, 319/4/1) to finish 8th in yards and 2nd in TDs among QBs, but I would rather have a QB I can count on for steady 17 to 20 point games than one that will win two or three games by himself and then disappear for half the season--while costing me a second-round pick in the process.
Since 2007 under Sean Payton, the Saints have rushed for more than 1600 yards as a team only twice. One of those years was the season they won the SuperBowl, when they rushed for over 2100 yards in 2009. Payton has publicly stated that it is his goal this season to re-emphasize the rushing attack and seek the more balanced offense that the team had in that year of glory. Since 2006 in his years with the Saints, Drew Brees has thrown for fewer than 4400 yards only once--the season they won the SuperBowl rushing for over 2100 yards in 2009. In 2013, Brees faces a slate of defenses that cumulatively allowed the 30th-most points to opposing QBs last season--the third-hardest QB schedule in the NFL. I can think of better chances to take with my 3.01 pick.
Cam Newton finished 2012 as the #4 QB in fantasy scoring. 122 of his 323 fantasy points came from his 741 yards rushing and 8 rushing TDs. New offensive coordinator Mike Shula is not a fan of the zone read packages that allowed Newton to rack up such gawdy rushing stats, and is working on keeping Newton in the pocket this season. He may not be entirely successful, but if Newton lost just 200 yards off his 2012 numbers, he would drop from #4 to #8, and if he lost 300 yards and 3 TDs, he would drop from #4 to #12. I don’t want to take the #10 QB in the fourth round.
Running Backs
Yeah, ok, I can only hate Adrian Peterson so much, but regression to the mean says that it IS hard to repeat a stellar year, and he DOES face the third-toughest slate of defenses against opposing fantasy RBs in the league. Perhaps the best reason to fade Peterson this season is that in the two money leagues I have already drafted, I had the overall #1 pick in both of them--so my having Peterson in two money leagues already pretty much guarantees that he will be out for the season by Week 3. I know, you’ll look like a noob if you have the overall #1 pick and don’t take Peterson, but hey, don’t say you weren’t warned.
Ray Rice finished 6th among fantasy RBs in non-PPR scoring last season. Although the Chicken Littles of the world are probly overstating their case, and the Bobby McFerrins of the world are probly not worried enough--Bernard Pierce IS a concern. I really don’t see any reason that Rice should do any BETTER in 2013 than he did in 2012, and there are a few legitimate reasons that he could do worse. These include a potential increase in Pierce’s touches, the departure of Vonte Leach, a depleted defense that may force the Ravens into catch-up passing mode more often, and last but certainly not least, the most difficult schedule of defenses faced by any NFL RB corps this season. I would be surprised if Rice doesn’t drop out of the top 10 RBs in non-PPR scoring this season, although in PPR leagues he should fare slightly better.
LeSean McCoy was one of the top 3 RBs off the board in 2012 after his career year in 2011. However, that same offensive system left him outside the top 20 RBs by season’s end (right behind Mikel LeShoure). In all fairness, he did miss four games with an injury, but his two rushing TDs on the season didn’t exactly make him a coveted commodity the rest of the year, either. I’m not sure why everyone thinks he will be back as a top 10 RB this season, with a new offensive system, a rookie NFL coach, what promises to be a lingering QB controversy--and perhaps most importantly, the fifth-hardest schedule for RBs in the league. Maybe he will, but I can’t bring myself to hang a first round pick on those circumstances.
Another rookie NFL coach, with a rookie QB as well (or maybe a crappy journeyman QB instead) and no WR being drafted in the top 35 at their position don’t bode well for a fantasy RB, even one as elusive and promising as C.J. Spiller. He was a yardage beast in 2012 (1703 combined rush/rec), but only managed to score 6 rush TDs and 2 receiving TDs--and 4 of those 8 TDs occurred in the first three weeks of the season. I’m not sure the Bills’ offense will put in him position to score much more often this year, and remember those years under Sean Payton when the Saints failed to reach 1600 yards rushing? New Bills’ Head Coach Doug Marrone was the Saints’ offensive coordinator in 2007 and 2008 when they recorded 1466 and 1594 team rushing yards respectively. Over his four years at Syracuse, Marrone’s teams averaged 76.25th in the nation in rushing. I don’t think that his offense is going to be much of a help to Spiller. The only silver lining for Spiller is that Buffalo faces the 3rd-easiest schedule for RBs in 2013--but his ADP is sitting right there where Calvin Johnson, as the best WR in the game, starts to look more attractive than the seventh or eighth RB.
Matt Forte is often one of the first second-round RBs off of the board with an ADP of 2.03. Why? Is it because Forte is one of the worst goalline RBs to ever play the game, having converted only 12 of 98 career goal-to-go carries into TDs? (As a Bear, Michael Bush has converted 5 of 11.) Is it because Forte hasn’t had 10 TDs in any single season since he was a rookie (2008)? Is it because he has scored 10 total rushing AND receiving TDs in the LAST TWO SEASONS COMBINED (with 6 in 2012)? He has also missed at least one game each of the last two years with injuries, so maybe his exceptional durability makes him more attractive. I might pick up Forte as a late 2nd round selection in a PPR league, but he’s not likely to be more than a pedestrian RB2 in standard scoring.
Let’s play the “Guess Who Put Up These Numbers” game again:
Wk/Rush Yds/Rush TDs/Rec Yds/Rec TDs/Fantasy Points
1/4/0/47/0/5.1
2/17/0/11/0/2.8
3/24/0/5/0/2.9
5/24/0/5/0/2.9
13/51/0/20/0/7.1
14/44/0/15/0/5.9
16/28/0/13/0/4.1
Again, seven games out of the fantasy year shot down--including critical weeks 13, 14 and 16--you might as well have started Danny Woodhead or Ronnie Brown. Like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson has scored 10 TDs in the last two seasons (and like Forte, 6 in 2012) with ZERO receiving TDs over that stretch. If that wasn’t bad enough, his team has added a new power RB (Shonn Greene) to vulture his scoring chances even further, yet people are still drafting CJ2k at 2.05 on a regular basis! Inconceivable!
Let’s drop down to ADP 2.06 and select a RB who is not yet fully recovered from a Lisfranc injury that cost him the latter two-thirds of the 2012 season, who showed up out of shape at OTAs, and who is facing a civil suit in which he is accused of assaulting a security guard at a restaurant. Given the likelihood of the league cracking down on legal issues off the field in the wake of the Hernandez fiasco, there’s more downside than upside to Maurice Jones-Drew. Denard Robinson might eat into his production as well, assuming MJD even gets on the field this season. And we ARE talking about Jacksonville here.
The San Francisco backfield isn’t getting any less crowded, and Frank Gore isn’t getting any younger. The Niners face the fourth-easiest schedule for RBs, but there are guys in the third and fourth round who have just as much potential as Gore. I’d rather use my second round pick on a top WR--or at least a more promising RB like Ridley.
I think the RB position is far from settled for the Giants. Way too far unsettled to be using a mid-3rd-round pick on David Wilson. He has struggled with pass protection, he needs to cure his fumblitis, and Andre Brown will likely be hawking the goalline carries--at least. Maybe if you get points for his work on kick and punt returns you could be excused, but on second thought, no, not really, not in the third round--not when the Giants face the 7th-toughest schedule against the run in the NFL.
Montee Ball is a rookie. John Fox doesn’t like to play rookies. I don’t like to draft rookies who play for John Fox--who stuck it out with an inferior DeShaun Foster after drafting DeAngelo Williams in 2006. It was 2008 before Williams saw any significant playing time--and THEN he put up 1600 yards and 20 TDs. Fox may bring Ball along quicker than that--and Denver faces the sixth-best schedule for RBs--but Hillman and Moreno are legitimate competition in the backfield of a pass-first offense. Therefore, I don’t have the ‘nads to put any Balls on my team in the 3rd round.
The Jets rushing scheme put an end to the career of Hall of Fame RB LaDanian Tomlinson. Over-hyped Shonn Greene was a bust wearing his namesake color. (Yeah, ok, he had a game with 161 yards and 3 TDs last year, but then he went 900/5 for the rest of the season.) Now a RB who has 8 TDs in his three-year career, and isn’t much of a receiving threat out of the backfield (32 career receiving yards, 0 rec TDs)--in fact, he was the fourth RB on his previous team behind Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas--is going to come in and be worth a fourth-round pick? I don’t think so. Not even the easiest schedule for RBs in the league is going to keep Chris Ivory from being a B-U-S-T Bust! Bust! Bust!
Wide Receivers
Of the top half-dozen WRs being drafted, Brandon Marshall has the most potential to move backwards this season. The Bears do face the fourth-easiest NFL schedule for receivers, but I think that just opens up opportunities for some of their other players to step up and take a piece of Marshall’s pie. I would expect Alshon Jeffery to improve on his 367/3 rookie season, and while the Bears’ TEs were pretty much invisible in 2012, newly-acquired Martellus Bennett can be expected to grab at least 4 or 5 scores as well. That will make it difficult for Marshall to get back to double-digit TDs, and if he were to lose 200 yards and 3 TDs off his 2012 numbers, he would be on the cusp of falling out of the top 10 fantasy WRs.
Marques Colston always seems to finish around that top-10 cusp as well, but his season totals are usually the result of having a few monster games--and then being frustratingly mediocre the rest of the season for his fantasy owners. Last year was no different; Colston sat as the #11 fantasy WR after the season with 1154 yards and double-digit TDs. However, from his Week 6 bye through Week 16, Colston scored only four of his ten total TDs (with none in playoff Weeks 13-16), and tallied more than 75 yards only once--posting under 50 yards three times. With Sean Payton seeking to re-emphasize the run, and the Saints facing the most difficult schedule for WRs in all the league, I can’t draft Colston like a top 15 fourth-round prospect.
Quickly becoming the forgotten receiver in the arsenal of Packer targets, Jordy Nelson can’t be expected to return to his 2011 glory. Nelson may continue to be a threat to catch the deep ball (he had catches of 40+ yards in 4 of his 12 games last season), but he’s not going to compete with Jones, Finley, Cobb, and possibly even one of the new RBs for red zone targets. When you live and die by the long TD, you get inconsistent results. Jordy posted 0.0, 1.0, 1.9, 2.9, and 4.5 fantasy points in 5 of his 12 games last season. That gives you more headaches than victories, and I can’t draft him like a top 15 fourth-round prospect either.
The final fourth-round prospect to be discussed here is Wes Welker. We all kind of got used to Welker being Tom Brady’s security blanket and a PPR beast over the past few years, but that’s all over now. We need to recognize that and move on. Welker will go from being the featured receiver on his team to the 2nd or 3rd receiver on his team, and that is basically going to cut his receptions and yardage totals in half. Welker caught 118 balls for 1354 yards and 6 TDs last year as a Patriot; he’s probably looking at something much closer to the range of 60-65 receptions and 700-800 yards this year, although I could see him retaining the lion’s share of those 6 TDs. His 110 fantasy points or so won’t be enough to keep him in the top 30 at his position, though--and he’s still being drafted in the fourth round?
Tight Ends
Since there aren’t that many TEs being drafted in the first four rounds anyway, I will expand the TE pool to include those with ADPs in the first ten rounds.
Kyle Rudolph has become kind of a sexy TE prospect this preseason. I think this is largely because he finished last season tied with Jimmy Graham for second among TEs in TDs--their 9 trailed only Gronkowski’s 11--and because he is going into his third season in Minnesota. However, when you look closely at his numbers, they’re really kind of scary for a guy you want to hang your TE hat upon. First of all, almost all of Rudolph’s fantasy value was predicated on him catching a TD. In the 8 weeks he did not score, Rudolph netted more than 2.2 fantasy points only once--including three weeks without recording a single catch--you could have started Axe Elf at TE and been no worse off for it. Rudolph caught only 53 of his 93 targets last season, and had only 9.3 yards per catch. In his final four games, when his owners were counting on him the most, he averaged 20.25 yards per game and had just one score. It should be noted that if Rudolph can’t step it up any more than this when Percy Harvin was sidelined and it was down to Jarius Wright, Jerome Simpson and Michael Jenkins as competition, how is he supposed to take a step forward with Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson in town? Need another reason? How about Minnesota facing the third-hardest schedule for TEs this season? Give me Dennis Pitta a round earlier and I’ll be happier.
The Rams’ TE hasn’t been worth any more than a backup roster slot since, like, well, I don’t remember. I do know that the 519 yards and 4 TDs that Lance Kendricks had last season are the most of any Rams TE in either category this century (although it certainly helped that Amendola was injured for a stretch or two). Now there’s a new kid in town, Jared Cook, who hasn’t really set the world on fire in his first three seasons with Tennessee, where he averaged just under what Kendricks posted last year--547 yards and 2.67 TDs per season. I would look for more of the same out of him in St. Louis, which makes him about the #20 TE in fantasy scoring (Kendricks was #18 last season). So why would anyone draft him as the 10th TE off the board in the 9th round?
Because I’m Axe Elf, and they’re not.
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