ADP Nonsense

[cctekguy]

Miller gave me this wonderful link that keeps tabs on current ADPs based on most recent mocks. Thanks Miller!

Here's what I don't understand and maybe youze guys can splain it.

Top 3 you got Foster, McCoy and Rice. I'm good with that. Aren't many backs gonna see the action these guys will.

6 & 7 you got CJ2K and Ryan Mathews. Ummm....ok. CJ could (and I think he will) bounce back for a great year. Mathews....I like him and his situation but I think there are some question marks.

After that you have MJD, Faddy, Murray, Lynch, Richardson, Forte and Peterson all before the 17th overall pick with Brady, Brees and Fitzgerald woven in.

That's 12 of the top 17 picks spent on RBs when the obvious NFL trend is RBBC.

MJD is old and angry, Faddy couldn't give you 10 games if his life depended on it, Murry is at the mercy of Jerry (could be good, could be bad), Lynch could be solid but who knows with that train wreck in Seattle, Richardson is a rookie on the Browns for gosh sake, Forte is angry and challenged by Bush and Peterson is old and on a pitiful team.

Not saying these guys suck but do you really think they deserve 1st or 2nd round consideration?

Remember the old QB mantra that used to be thrown around? "Don't draft high on a QB because even though they score a lot of points the lesser QBs score a lot of points too"

That is whats happening with RBs now. Sure, we all love Forte but will he outscore SJax or Fred Jackson by that much?

It's my opinion that we should be focusing on WR and TE....Guys that play every down and where there is clearer definition between the good ones and the bad ones.

Give me Calvin, Stafford and Gronk and I think I can live with Beanie and McGahee.

 

[mudloggerone]

ADP is an average of those that know what they're doing and those that don't. I think those that don't may well have a bigger influence on the numbers than those that do. Because a guy goes high doesn't mean he's going to do well and never has. Isn't even meant to. ADP helps you find the bargain players. The players the guys in your league over rate. The ones that statistics say you can wait on. Of the RB's you mentioned, well the more than one year veterans anyway, none of them have been in a true RBBC situation. They've been rare players. The guys that get the lions share of the touches. They are to be coveted simply because, as you pointed out, they're a dieing breed. While you can live with a lesser QB I think you'd be sucking hind teet again if you start Beanie and McGahee as your starters at RB.

 

[cctekguy]

You are talking as though you have one of the top 3 picks.


Who you gonna take at 12?

Demarco Murray?

LOL LOL LOL

 

[mudloggerone]

Actually Murray was the player I made the more than one year exception for. I think he'll be good but I wouldn't take him with only a short season to judge with in the first. And again, if I can make it sink in, the ADP is not what the smart owners are doing, it's what the average is of the smart and not so smart owners. Folks like you tend to skew the numbers. LOL LOL LOL

 

[mudloggerone]

Here's a timely story from rotoworld.com.

ESPN NFC East blogger Dan Graziano calls DeMarco Murray the clear No. 1 back in Dallas.
Graziano dismissed any speculation that Murray would be in for a timeshare with Felix Jones, noting that the former was "clearly the starter" when both were healthy. The two only played three complete games together, however, after Murray's breakout game vs. St. Louis. In those games, Murray handled 133 snaps, compared to Jones' 58.

Source: ESPN Dallas Jun 25 - 10:49 PM

 

[jjtweeks]

Miller gave me this wonderful link that keeps tabs on current ADPs based on most recent mocks. Thanks Miller!

Here's what I don't understand and maybe youze guys can splain it.

Top 3 you got Foster, McCoy and Rice. I'm good with that. Aren't many backs gonna see the action these guys will.

6 & 7 you got CJ2K and Ryan Mathews. Ummm....ok. CJ could (and I think he will) bounce back for a great year. Mathews....I like him and his situation but I think there are some question marks.

After that you have MJD, Faddy, Murray, Lynch, Richardson, Forte and Peterson all before the 17th overall pick with Brady, Brees and Fitzgerald woven in.

That's 12 of the top 17 picks spent on RBs when the obvious NFL trend is RBBC.

MJD is old and angry, Faddy couldn't give you 10 games if his life depended on it, Murry is at the mercy of Jerry (could be good, could be bad), Lynch could be solid but who knows with that train wreck in Seattle, Richardson is a rookie on the Browns for gosh sake, Forte is angry and challenged by Bush and Peterson is old and on a pitiful team.

Not saying these guys suck but do you really think they deserve 1st or 2nd round consideration?

Remember the old QB mantra that used to be thrown around? "Don't draft high on a QB because even though they score a lot of points the lesser QBs score a lot of points too"

That is whats happening with RBs now. Sure, we all love Forte but will he outscore SJax or Fred Jackson by that much?

It's my opinion that we should be focusing on WR and TE....Guys that play every down and where there is clearer definition between the good ones and the bad ones.

Give me Calvin, Stafford and Gronk and I think I can live with Beanie and McGahee.

I see your point Tek. But Depending on how deep your league is I think you would be lucky to have that happen, you might get beanie but McGahee might be gone. And like you said with the NFL being more of a RBBC situation.
Also I think Gronk will be gone by the 3rd rd in most leagues.
So that would be like Calvin, Stafford, Gronk, Beanie and McGahee Going up against lets say MJD,M Lynch, A.J. Green,K.Britt, and Phillip Rivers.
Both teams sound decent but if you get 2 feature backs early like that which most likely would only occur with a late pick then you are gold.
It would be hard for me to take 2 rb's early if i had one of the top 4 picks because by pick 18 or whatever I,m not getting a guaranteed feature back.
So I guess it all depends on preference and where you are in the picking order. I myself have taken 3 RB's in my top 4 picks before and other times I only get 1 in the first 4 rds.

 

[cctekguy]

Folks like you tend to skew the numbers.

That makes no sense.

If folks like me were skewing the numbers then Richardson wouldn't be going before A.J. Green.

 

[Phicinfan]

Okay a couple of things. First I am not sure of the site you look at, but does it allow for you to filter the content? Are you filtering for leagues with PPR vs. those without? Secondly, if the league is NOT ppr, and does require 2rbs to start, then those numbers make a whole lot of sense. A league we have here called SUDFFL(shup up and draft fantasy football) has tough scoring. We require 2 rbs, no flex, but rbs go like candy early. Why? Need. If you know you HAVE to have 2 rbs, and you need consistent points..it drives the value of rbs up...since there aren't as many stud and quality rbs. Now, that being said.....could you instead load up on stud Wrs or Tes(yes TE is mandatory) and go for lower value rbs. Sure...but in that league, you have guys taking 3rbs in the first 6 rounds....so even the Lynch's and Stark's and Moreno's of the world are being taken. It is one reason I don't put alot of stock in ADP sites. Its a great tool to give you a general target of where folks may or may not go...but as the draft rolls....you just have to be flexible and look to get your targets when YOU want. Yes, you may take a player a round or two early.....but then again....at least you GOT that player you wanted. Now on Qbs. I never take a Qb in the first round. I just don't. So I never get a Rodgers or Brady or Brees or P.Manning in the past. But there is separation enough in Qbs...if a top Qb falls, I will take a shot.

 

[cctekguy]

Yes it can be filtered and this particular list is currently set for 12 team no-ppr.

All I was really pointing out is that this VERY early prototype of what a draft might look like has a serious bent towards RBs depite the fact that many are unproven or have serious question marks.

Just at a glance it looks like the fantasy world is desperate for the next Arian Foster and that's understandable. As the season nears and more is learned about players and teams I think you will start to see a more reasonable balance in the top players taken.

 

[Phicinfan]

Maybe its just me then, but in non-ppr, rbs always go early, and value is always inflated due to that.

 

[Deacon]

I think you are actually answering your own question without knowing it. Don't just consider the value of a pick only in relation to where he is picked but also consider the value of a pick based on the value to your actual roster. Nowadays there are only about 5-8 true RB1s in the league as a RB1 would traditionally have been defined. After that there are only another 10-12 that could be considered RB2s.

For that reason the relative value of drafting a RB early is very important because there is a huge difference between the production you will get out of a RB1/RB2 compared to the RB3. So much so that it is much wiser to pick a 2nd or 3rd WR than to select that RB3 of the likes of Donald Brown, C J Spiller, Michael Bush, Pierre Thomas, etc, etc.

The one saving grace now is the re-emergence of TEs. In the RBs heyday the TE was pretty much a worthless roster spot but now we are seeing increased production out of even mediocre (fantasy wise) TEs. That is saving a lot of rosters that missed out on getting 2 solid RBs.

The other reason is the fact that the WR position is so deep right now. You can afford to take RBs early and still get solid production out of the WRs that are around in the 4th and 5th round. Players like Desean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Brown, etc, etc, are going between the 5th and 7th rounds now so if you opt to go after that RB in rds 1-3 you will not miss out on the opportunity to still get good production from your WR position whereas if you wait until the 5-7 to get a RB you will have to settle for some very limited production.

As long as you mix in a top QB I think drafting your RBs as early as possible is a great idea.

 

[Miller]

Comes down to a very simply economic principal....Supply and Demand. There is simply not enough RB's to produce the amount of points fantasy owners would like out of their RB1 & RB2. This drives the price of RB's with "potential" up higher than it does at other positions. Once the run begins, the herd follows and you get RB's flying off the board early.....you wait, and you may be forced to end up with that Wells McGahee backfield you spoke of......or.....GULP.....WORSE!

 

[mudloggerone]

McGahee is bad enough Miller considering many think he'll be the #2 RB in town before the season is done.

 

[cctekguy]

How many times have we heard THAT....lol

 

[Phicinfan]

I think Wells ends up losing his starting slot as well. So both could hurt.

One other fact not discussed is depth. So not only is it hard to get your solid #1 and #2, but any kind of decent depth in case of injury or byes or such. That makes the value even tougher to fill in. So you start pushing players not starting now, but may be later higher, just to cover that issue.

 

[RLLD]

ADP is an excellent tool to sanity check your list, and then your pick before you make it. But groupthink is not always the best to rely on. The first few rounds tend to be pretty standard, but you win your league in rounds 4 - 7, and relying on ADP too heavily in those rounds might not be the best option.

 

[Miller]

ADP is an excellent tool to sanity check your list, and then your pick before you make it. But groupthink is not always the best to rely on. The first few rounds tend to be pretty standard, but you win your league in rounds 4 - 7, and relying on ADP too heavily in those rounds might not be the best option.

Good post RLLD, what ADP can do in those rounds though is help you craft a strategy to maximize the value of your picks. If you love a guy enough to take him in the 4th, but he carries a ADP of 6th rd, you can usually gamble enough to hold off until the 5th and select the guy. What you don't want to do is gamble too long and miss you guy, but you can use it to try to get Max value.