2nd/3rd Round RB's This Year

[German CTL]

I'm not too pumped on any of these guys at this point...

Freeman ATL - I keep hearing this will be more of a comittee than ever but the dude is explosive and plays on that great offense.

Ajayi MIA- Had some huge games last year but had a lot of duds too. Small sample size to work with.

Howard CHI - Was pretty darn good last year and consistent as well. But plays for a sh!tty team and another small sample size to work with.

Murray TEN - Had a great year last year but he's getting long in the tooth and Henry's role should increase slightly even if Murray stays healthy.

Gurley LAR - Crap season last year, playing for crap team again this year.

Fournette JAC - Exciting new guy in a position to excel? Unknown commodity in the NFL though.

So do any of these guys stand out to you as someone you'd avoid/target?

How would you rank them?

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Freeman is clearly ahead of the rest of this pack.

I don't mind Ajayi for the most part. I like Murray too. That guy was an animal for TENN last year.

I'm ok gambling on Gurley too. He's got all the talent.

One guy I won't touch at his ADP is Howard. He just doesn't strike me as having elite talent, and his team is absolute dog poo. I feel like everyone is way over paying for that kid

 

[MongerKhan]

I agree with staying away from Howard. He will probably lead the league in most run attempts against seven or eight in the Box.

Chicago is a dumpster fire I would stay away from everyone.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Why isn't Lamar Miller in this group? Id take him over half of these dudes.

 

[Phicinfan]

I'm not too pumped on any of these guys at this point...

Freeman ATL - I keep hearing this will be more of a comittee than ever but the dude is explosive and plays on that great offense.

Ajayi MIA- Had some huge games last year but had a lot of duds too. Small sample size to work with.

Howard CHI - Was pretty darn good last year and consistent as well. But plays for a sh!tty team and another small sample size to work with.

Murray TEN - Had a great year last year but he's getting long in the tooth and Henry's role should increase slightly even if Murray stays healthy.

Gurley LAR - Crap season last year, playing for crap team again this year.

Fournette JAC - Exciting new guy in a position to excel? Unknown commodity in the NFL though.

So do any of these guys stand out to you as someone you'd avoid/target?

How would you rank them?

I would lean Freeman first, but only due to the offense he is in, and his use both running and receiving.
Howard is #2, actually more like #1B - kid did awesome for a bad team last year, and they have added to the O-line.
Murray - #3 Tenn. loves to run, and he is #1. Now, if he gets hurt and Henry takes over, he might not take it back, but still I love him in that offense.
Ajayi - they want to run him alot, he has not real competition, and they want to protect Tannehill if they can.
Fournette - Jax will get better, and he will be the lead rb
Gurley - on bad team , with bad Qb, love some of the moves they have made, but it will be a year or two before it gets better.

 

[German CTL]

Why isn't Lamar Miller in this group? Id take him over half of these dudes.

Yeah I should have included him.. he disappointed last year but I could see him bouncing back and at a discounted price this year.

 

[efactor]

I would lean Freeman first, but only due to the offense he is in, and his use both running and receiving.
Howard is #2, actually more like #1B - kid did awesome for a bad team last year, and they have added to the O-line.
Murray - #3 Tenn. loves to run, and he is #1. Now, if he gets hurt and Henry takes over, he might not take it back, but still I love him in that offense.
Ajayi - they want to run him alot, he has not real competition, and they want to protect Tannehill if they can.
Fournette - Jax will get better, and he will be the lead rb
Gurley - on bad team , with bad Qb, love some of the moves they have made, but it will be a year or two before it gets better.

Good spin Phic

Love Freeman. Watched him a ton last year because I had him and Julio on a few teams. I had seen his stats from his first two years, but wasn't really aware how good he really was. So quick and explosive. Great moves to get to the 2nd level. Awesome receiver. If not for Coleman, he would make it the big 4 RBs

Don't understand the Howard negativity by many. Probably due to where he was drafted. Kid has a ton of talent and performed exceptionally with a worse supporting cast than he has this year. The Bears have a very good O-line and he will get a ton of opportunities. Plus, he seems to really be willing to do what it takes to improve. Even had Lasik to help with his pass catching.

Ajayi is the one I am the most leery of. 3 big games but a lot of bust games too. But I didn't really see him play much last year, so my opinion is based on stats and not the eyeball test.

My local league is a 14 team redraft, so thinking of a Freeman, Howard start if I pick towards the end.

 

[KillerFins]

Love Ajayi & Jordan. Ajayi has one of the lowest Yards before contact and one of the highest yards after contact. A big key of his success will be if Mike Pouncey can stay healthy and play most of the games, there was a hge difference in Ajayi's productivity. He should also see more work as a receiver out of the backfield.

Love Howard as well. While I get it that he plays on a bad team, he played on a bad team last year and had success.

I'm not a Freeman guy, so will never draft him due to where he is currently going.

Murray, I don't get why everyone thinks Henry won't cut into his workload that Murray needs to get hurt for them to move to Henry. Again, don't like the value of where is going.

I like Fournette, but think potential is driving his value too high.

I like Gurley, think he should vounce back quite a bit, but also think he is on a bad offense.

 

[Phicinfan]

Murray, I don't get why everyone thinks Henry won't cut into his workload that Murray needs to get hurt for them to move to Henry. Again, don't like the value of where is going.

Basically, cause the head coach says so. They fully intend to run Murray into the ground, and then when he is done, rinse and repeat with Henry. But Henry still has issues picking up blitzing blocks and still isn't a great receiver. Murray is very safe....for now.

 

[KillerFins]

Basically, cause the head coach says so. They fully intend to run Murray into the ground, and then when he is done, rinse and repeat with Henry. But Henry still has issues picking up blitzing blocks and still isn't a great receiver. Murray is very safe....for now.

Coaches say a lot of things. Not saying what you are saying is wrong, as that might play out the way you think. But if Henry is better and gives them a better chance to win this year it wouldn't surprise me if Henry cut deeper into Murray's workload more than what people think.

 

[Phicinfan]

Coaches say a lot of things. Not saying what you are saying is wrong, as that might play out the way you think. But if Henry is better and gives them a better chance to win this year it wouldn't surprise me if Henry cut deeper into Murray's workload more than what people think.

Henry isn't better. He is Murray just younger. Murray will start and keep the starting as long as he is healthy, Look for Henry to take over once Murray gets hurt...or his contract runs out.

 

[KillerFins]

Henry isn't better. He is Murray just younger. Murray will start and keep the starting as long as he is healthy, Look for Henry to take over once Murray gets hurt...or his contract runs out.

He may be, but I hate that argument because it is so subjective. My point was it's a major red flag for me and I don't want to spend a 2nd round pick on a such a player. Maybe in the 3rd or 4th but not where he is going now.

 

[Phicinfan]

He may be, but I hate that argument because it is so subjective. My point was it's a major red flag for me and I don't want to spend a 2nd round pick on a such a player. Maybe in the 3rd or 4th but not where he is going now.

Everything we think on fantasy is subjective. Its why when I see a HC do nothing but make clear a player is the starter, I tend to go in that favor. This is an old school HC, starters don't lose their job unless they get beat out. IMO, Murray is a lock to start, and there will be plenty of running for both.

BUT....agree, would much rather go 3rd round or so to get Murray. Just don't think he will be there.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

If I'm Tenn, I'm going to squeeze every last ounce out of Murray that I can before his career starts heading into the twilight.

 

[KillerFins]

Everything we think on fantasy is subjective. Its why when I see a HC do nothing but make clear a player is the starter, I tend to go in that favor. This is an old school HC, starters don't lose their job unless they get beat out. IMO, Murray is a lock to start, and there will be plenty of running for both.

BUT....agree, would much rather go 3rd round or so to get Murray. Just don't think he will be there.

No, not everything. There are metrics & statistics that aren't. But agree that how you interpret that data and apply it to a player's value is highly subjective.

Take for instance these stats, % Rush Attempts & Fantasy Points Scored (PPR) for both Murray & Henry from last year:

Murray Att % / FP PPR %
Weeks 1-4: 71.0% / 84.8%
Weeks 5-8: 78.3% / 70.7%
Weeks 9-12: 80.2% / 84.4%
Weeks 13-17: 61.5% / 51.5%

Henry Att % / FP PPR %
Weeks 1-4: 29.0% / 15.2%
Weeks 5-8: 21.7% / 29.3%
Weeks 9-12: 19.8% / 15.6%
Weeks 13-17: 38.5% / 48.5%

In the last four games Henry saw the most action he saw all year, and scored almost as many points as Murray.

If anything I think he will be more involved this year, add in Murray's age and workload throughout the years and that leads me to believe Henry will see a bigger slice. And there is also the TD factor, in the last 5 games Murray scored once while Henry scored 4 times. So even if Murray hangs onto the same volume there is a chance Henry will still get carries in goalline situations.

 

[mudloggerone]

How can there be any reasonable doubt that Murray's workload is going down this season? Come on man. How big of a hit from Henry and their new air toy is the question that we must guess on. IMO he'll still be worth a high 3rd round and maybe, though I'm not taking the bet, maybe a late 2nd. Just don't expect what you got out of him last year, that isn't reasonable IMO.

 

[efactor]

How can there be any reasonable doubt that Murray's workload is going down this season? Come on man. How big of a hit from Henry and their new air toy is the question that we must guess on. IMO he'll still be worth a high 3rd round and maybe, though I'm not taking the bet, maybe a late 2nd. Just don't expect what you got out of him last year, that isn't reasonable IMO.

This is how I see it too. Murray still the main guy, but gonna take a hit in volume. Henry is too good to not use him and limit the wear and tear on Murray, especially since they will probably be a playoff team this year. Kind of the opposite view of some, but don't know why they want to try and kill Murray when they have a young stud ready to carry some of the load

 

[Phicinfan]

How can there be any reasonable doubt that Murray's workload is going down this season? Come on man. How big of a hit from Henry and their new air toy is the question that we must guess on. IMO he'll still be worth a high 3rd round and maybe, though I'm not taking the bet, maybe a late 2nd. Just don't expect what you got out of him last year, that isn't reasonable IMO.

You may be right, I may be wrong. I happen to think a better passing game will open more holes for both Rbs. So some drop in carries may not equate to drop in yards and such. But only time will tell.

 

[hikeNbike]

I really dont trust any of these guys. Having a hard time coming up with a 2nd round rb O would take. To me you have first round rbs in Johnson, Bell, Elliot, Mccoy. After that Id rather wait till 3rf or 4th round to draft my first rb. Id just rather have Jordy, TY, Thomas or Cooper if any of them are still on the board. Also would consider Gronk.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

[Phicinfan]

You may be right, I may be wrong. I happen to think a better passing game will open more holes for both Rbs. So some drop in carries may not equate to drop in yards and such. But only time will tell.

Oh read PFT today, there is a story about Henry learning and knowing his role, and how he is the back up to Murray, per the HC and himself stating it. THAT is why I am still high on Murray.