2021 Qb status - who will stay, who will go?

[Phicinfan]

As we are finishing up week 7 and about to go into week 8, time to assess where we are team by team on QB status, and who may or may not change jobs.

AFC:

East:
Buffalo - Josh Allen - Safe - he is solid
New England - Mac Jones - Safe - the one rookie who seems to be improving in each game
New York Jets - Zach Wilson - Safe - will miss 2-4 weeks with PCL strain, but this isn't his fault, the team has tons of needs
Miami - Tua Tagovailoa - Gone - too much smoke over getting Watson and he has not really improved

North:
Bengals - Joe Burrow - Safe - Really playing better coming back from bad knee injury
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson - Safe - Solid play - needs long term deal
Cleveland - Baker Mayfield - Not Sure - in his 4th year, he has not been asked to carry team, and that is probably good. He is competant, but not worth a huge extension. Next year will be option year.
Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger - Gone - Team took a chance to keep him one more year - he is a goner. But will they draft or try for FA?

South:
Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill - Safe - Solid performer - contract runs through 2023
Indianapolis - Carson Wentz - Safe - Has been pretty solid - he has been hurt, but played through it, and seems to be improving, need WR more than Qb here.
Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence - Safe - Team needs to find tools to support him, and a HC that actually can coach.
Houston - Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, Deshaun Watson - Gone - Mills may stay as back up, but they will draft for the future(doubt FA will come there...). Watson will be gone.

West:
Las Vegas - Derek Carr - Safe - contract runs through 2023
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert - Safe - 2nd year just as positive as his rookie year
Kansas City - Patrick Mahomes - Safe - signed through 2031 - Yikes - Team has issues, need O-line revamp to gel and need Def. Too much being put on Mahomes. This is Andy Reid not learning and wanting to stay as is, which is why he eventually left Philly.
Denver - Teddy Bridgewater - Gone - he has a one year deal, and Lock is not the answer either. Look for FA move here or draft.

So in the AFC right now I am predicting 4 Qbs moving on, one still in limbo(Mayfield).

 

[Phicinfan]

NFC:

East:
Dallas - Dak Prescott - Safe - Has played well, but needs to stay healthy
Washington - Taylor Heinicke Ryan Fitzpatrick - Gone - Fitzpatrick was a one year deal, and Heinicke isn't a long term solution
Philadelphia - Justin Hurts - Safe - I think they realize they need more to help Hurts. Get more OL help, get a down to ground Rb(I get the impression Sanders isn't who they want) and continue to fix Wr. Def. needs help as well. 3 1st round picks( assuming Wentz keeps going...) all of them very high will fix wonders this year. But this year is NOT a great Qb year in draft.
NY Giants - Daniel Jones - Gone - I just don't see any improvement, not worth re-signing him. Look for GM also to be fired.

North:
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers - TBD - I agree with most, if they win Superbowl, he will stay, but if not I think he is gone. He wants to be next Tom Brady.
Minnesota - Kirk Cousins - Safe - signed for big $$$ til 2022 - don't see team eating dead money here
Chicago - Justin Fields - Safe - Rookie is learning, but Bears need OL help, and Wr depth. Allen Robinson is the only real receiver on team.
Detroit - Jared Goff - TBD - signed through 2024 - so dead money will kill them. My gut says stay, but HC already is waffling.

South:
Tampa Bay - Tom Brady - Safe - won't leave til he dies on field
New Orleans - Jameis Winston - TBD - He is not really able to carry team, but will he improve once Michael Thomas gets back?
Atlanta - Matt Ryan - Safe - signed through 2023 - cap hit may be too much to eat, and he is playing pretty well.
Carolina - Sam Darnold - Gone - by all reports Panthers are trying to get Watson, even though they have Darnold next year on his option year they activated already

West:
Arizona - Kyler Murray - Safe - Mighty Mouse will save the day!!
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford - Safe - looking like a great move by Rams
Seattle - Russell Wilson - TBD - last off-season was a mess, and things aren't improving. Signed through 2024, not sure team can move him.
San Francisco - Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance - Gone, Safe - Jimmy G signed through 2022 so dead money not an issue. I expect to see more of Trey Lance this year.

So NFC has 3 teams dropping Qbs, 4 teams that could be moving things and one team that will drop the vet.

 

[efactor]

A couple things:

-Not sure Miami should be pulling the trigger on Watson if the price is really 3 1sts and 2 2nds or in that price range. They drafted Tua knowing he was injured, so maybe give him another year. I have watched a lot of his last two games (all of the London game against Jacksonville) and he looked pretty damn good, especially considering his two best options are Waddle (who I think is going to be great, but still learning) and Mike Geiski. He made a couple knucklehead throws yesterday, but he's still learning. They will have two high 1st rounders this year assuming SF stays on the train wreck path they are on. Maybe build a team around him.

-Will be really interesting to see what Indy does with Carson Wentz if they fall out of playoff contention. Will be really hard to bench him if healthy, but giving a first rounder instead of a 2nd rounder if he plays 75 percent of snaps is a bad strategic move. I would think Wentz would be OK suffering an "ankle sprain" and missing time if it helps the team for next year.

Also, no bets on Jimmy being in SF next year

 

[Phicinfan]

A couple things:

-Not sure Miami should be pulling the trigger on Watson if the price is really 3 1sts and 2 2nds or in that price range. They drafted Tua knowing he was injured, so maybe give him another year. I have watched a lot of his last two games (all of the London game against Jacksonville) and he looked pretty damn good, especially considering his two best options are Waddle (who I think is going to be great, but still learning) and Mike Geiski. He made a couple knucklehead throws yesterday, but he's still learning. They will have two high 1st rounders this year assuming SF stays on the train wreck path they are on. Maybe build a team around him.

Owner has stated clearly he wants Watson. I am with you that cost is way too high. Not fully agreeing on Tua though.

-Will be really interesting to see what Indy does with Carson Wentz if they fall out of playoff contention. Will be really hard to bench him if healthy, but giving a first rounder instead of a 2nd rounder if he plays 75 percent of snaps is a bad strategic move. I would think Wentz would be OK suffering an "ankle sprain" and missing time if it helps the team for next year.

They have no choice. No one really behind Wentz.

Also, no bets on Jimmy being in SF next year

Jimmy G is gone next year, as I posted.

 

[efactor]

Indy would have a choice if they fall out of playoff contention and don't want to give up the 1st rounder if Wentz hits 75 percent of snaps. They play their back-up. Now Wentz would have to play the game and feign a small injury, but would be the smart move, especially if they go on a losing streak and the pick would be a high one.

Philly did it last year to make sure they didn't win that last game and cost themselves draft position. They got some flack, but it was the smart move. SF won their last, meaningless game in 2016, which cost them the overall #1 and Myles Garrett. Their consolation prize was Solomon Thomas. Granted, they could have made a better pick than Thomas (Watson or Mahomes anyone) but Garrett was the prize that year, unquestioned #1. But hey, they got that 2nd win and a boatload of momentum going into 2017 gosh darn it

 

[Phicinfan]

Indy would have a choice if they fall out of playoff contention and don't want to give up the 1st rounder if Wentz hits 75 percent of snaps. They play their back-up. Now Wentz would have to play the game and feign a small injury, but would be the smart move, especially if they go on a losing streak and the pick would be a high one.

Philly did it last year to make sure they didn't win that last game and cost themselves draft position. They got some flack, but it was the smart move. SF won their last, meaningless game in 2016, which cost them the overall #1 and Myles Garrett. Their consolation prize was Solomon Thomas. Granted, they could have made a better pick than Thomas (Watson or Mahomes anyone) but Garrett was the prize that year, unquestioned #1. But hey, they got that 2nd win and a boatload of momentum going into 2017 gosh darn it

True I guess. But I believe the only back up they have is the rookie now Ehlinger. They let Jacob Eason go. Oh, they also have Hundley.

 

[efactor]

True I guess. But I believe the only back up they have is the rookie now Ehlinger. They let Jacob Eason go.

I know, but winning wouldn't really be the goal at that point. Protecting the 2022 1st rounder would be. Does it matter who starts if they are out of playoff contention?

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

Seems to me that Garappolos contract was very cash up front loaded so that he now has a very reasonable charge. That would not be a hinderance for moving him. Probably make it easier

 

[efactor]

Seems to me that Garappolos contract was very cash up front loaded so that he now has a very reasonable charge. That would not be a hinderance for moving him. Probably make it easier

Yeah, they could have cut him with basically no hit. Had 25 million or so to spend on other positions. When they took Lance, they figured he wasn't ready to throw into the fire. If they had taken Mac Jones, who was more ready to step in, they might have dumped Jimmy.

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

Yeah, they could have cut him with basically no hit. Had 25 million or so to spend on other positions. When they took Lance, they figured he wasn't ready to throw into the fire. If they had taken Mac Jones, who was more ready to step in, they might have dumped Jimmy.

Thought it was an average of less than 25mil but the 1st yr was something like 40 mil so they could just cut him at no cost and save something like a 15 mil salary. Not positive on exact numbers but pretty sure it was along those lines. There was no signing bonus to be spread out, it was just up front cash salary

 

[KillerFins]

A couple things:

-Not sure Miami should be pulling the trigger on Watson if the price is really 3 1sts and 2 2nds or in that price range. They drafted Tua knowing he was injured, so maybe give him another year. I have watched a lot of his last two games (all of the London game against Jacksonville) and he looked pretty damn good, especially considering his two best options are Waddle (who I think is going to be great, but still learning) and Mike Geiski. He made a couple knucklehead throws yesterday, but he's still learning. They will have two high 1st rounders this year assuming SF stays on the train wreck path they are on. Maybe build a team around him.

Agreed. Unless the Get Watson cheap... I don't get giving upon tua yet.. especially since this season has gone off the rails.

 

[Phicinfan]

Time to update....

 

[Phicinfan]

Updated

AFC:

East:
Buffalo - Josh Allen - Safe - Same
New England - Mac Jones - Safe - looking very, very solid right now
New York Jets - Zach Wilson - Safe - Well since Magic Mike failed, he is looking more safe....., team needs more tools
Miami - Tua Tagovailoa - Gone - going to stick here, by all reports they were this close to pulling trade for Watson.

North:
Bengals - Joe Burrow - Safe - looking great
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson - Safe - Solid play - but he is starting to slip some, but still safe
Cleveland - Baker Mayfield - Not Sure - really not sure here. His option year decision is this off-season, so lets see what happens.
Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger - Gone - Big Ben looks done. and there is no transition ready

South:
Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill - Safe - Solid performer - need future, cause he can't win games
Indianapolis - Carson Wentz - Safe - Has been pretty solid - he actually almost looks like his pre-injury self here
Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence - Safe - Issues are mostly the team, not him. O-line would be a HUGE help for Lawrence
Houston - Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, Deshaun Watson - Gone - Watson will be gone next year. Not sure if Taylor will be bridge, but they need Qb of the future.

West:
Las Vegas - Derek Carr - Safe - contract runs through 2023
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert - Safe - 2nd year just as positive as his rookie year
Kansas City - Patrick Mahomes - Safe - signed through 2031 - Yikes
Denver - Teddy Bridgewater - Not sure - Hold on here. Teddy has been playing very well, and the running game has helped.

So predicting teams moving on to new Qbs, and a couple that may need to move on.

 

[Phicinfan]

NFC: updated

East:
Dallas - Dak Prescott - Safe - Has played well
Washington - Taylor Heinicke Ryan Fitzpatrick - Not sure - Not sure here, I think Fitzmagic is gone, but Heinicke could be bridge to future
Philadelphia - Justin Hurts - Safe - Calling it here. I think they stick with Hurts next year, and use the high picks next year to rebuild the team, with potentially 3 high to middle first round and extra picks elsewhere they could really re-stock this team.
NY Giants - Daniel Jones - Gone - looks to be clean sweep in NY, HC, GM and Qb

North:
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers - TBD - Still think this is not a lock, as Rodgers may want to move west.
Minnesota - Kirk Cousins - Safe - signed for big $$$ til 2022 - don't see team eating dead money here
Chicago - Justin Fields - Safe - Rookie is learning, but Bears need OL help, and Wr depth. Allen Robinson is the only real receiver on team.
Detroit - Jared Goff - Gone - signed through 2024 - Goff is not the Qb they need, and not sure one they do is there though.

South:
Tampa Bay - Tom Brady - Safe - won't leave til he dies on field
New Orleans - Jameis Winston - Gone - I think Saints rebuild. I don't think they re-sign Winston, and use Taysom Hill to bridge to future.
Atlanta - Matt Ryan - Safe - signed through 2023 - cap hit may be too much to eat, and he is playing pretty well.
Carolina - Sam Darnold - Gone - They picked up the option, but not sure they keep him. We know Cam is NOT the answer either.

West:
Arizona - Kyler Murray - Safe - Mighty Mouse will save the day!!
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford - Safe - Money says he is safe, but he is showing his wear and tear now.
Seattle - Russell Wilson - TBD - Honestly, they may split ways by mutual agreement. Team needs to move on and rebuild, not keep paying top dollar for Wilson.
San Francisco - Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance - Gone, Safe - Jimmy G is making a team next year, but still don't think it will be San Fran. Lance will take over next year is my guess.

Could be quite a bit of transition in NFC next year. Detroit, Carolina, Giants and potentially a few others will be looking to make a change

 

[Walter34]

You can update the Bears comment replacing Robinson with Mooney

 

[Remote Controller]

Pittsburgh will be a player for Wilson or Rodgers with their available weapons, though I'm beginning to believe Rodgers stays put and Love gets moved. Wilson with Claypool, Diontae, JuJu, Freiermuth, and Najee would be gold. The Broncos are a solid destination for a top QB also with Fant, Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Gordon and Williams. Seattle and or Green Bay would be more apt to want to trade them to an AFC franchise and both fit the bill, with premade teams ready to roll on offense, and a history of solid defensive play.

 

[efactor]

Pittsburgh will be a player for Wilson or Rodgers with their available weapons, though I'm beginning to believe Rodgers stays put and Love gets moved. Wilson with Claypool, Diontae, JuJu, Freiermuth, and Najee would be gold. The Broncos are a solid destination for a top QB also with Fant, Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Gordon and Williams. Seattle and or Green Bay would be more apt to want to trade them to an AFC franchise and both fit the bill, with premade teams ready to roll on offense, and a history of solid defensive play.

I think you are overrating Wilson. Lockett and Metcalf are at least as good as Claypool and Johnson, probably better. Frienmuth is OK, but not a great athlete. A Heath Miller type.

Wilson has definitely lost some of his running ability, which hampers him. Used to get a lot of big play after escaping the rush and finding someone open down the field. If you watched last nights game, that was pretty obvious.

Also, the price of acquiring Wilson has probably dropped. They should have moved him this year.

 

[Remote Controller]

I think you are overrating Wilson. Lockett and Metcalf are at least as good as Claypool and Johnson, probably better. Frienmuth is OK, but not a great athlete. A Heath Miller type.

Wilson has definitely lost some of his running ability, which hampers him. Used to get a lot of big play after escaping the rush and finding someone open down the field. If you watched last nights game, that was pretty obvious.

I think the fault lies with the oldest coach in the NFL. Russ is nicked up but still can be elite.

 

[efactor]

I think the fault lies with the oldest coach in the NFL. Russ is nicked up but still can be elite.

How much does Pete influence the offense? They brought in Walden so Russ could cook. Shorty has lost a step and easier to sack now. He has never been very good working the middle of the field. Excellent QB but not elite.

 

[Remote Controller]

You are entitled to your opinion but he will prosper again elsewhere.