Deacon
Bacon=greatest of all!
Now that 2012 football is over in all its various forms I reflect back on some of the significance of how things relate to the fantasy world. These are my thoughts, observations, and knowledge of the past football year and speculations about next year's fantasy landscape.
In the spirit of full disclosure this past fantasy year I played in 5 leagues. I failed to make the playoffs in 1, lost in the first round of playoffs in 1, and lost the championship game in the other 3. So general success but ultimate failure.
Things I learned
I learned that TE is still an overrated position. In years past I would never draft a TE before 10th rd cause it was the most inconsistent position on the roster. Due to the proliferation of output in the past 2 years from that position I decided to change my draft strategy and (reach) for one of those so called top TE's. By the forth round I had drafted either Antionio Gates or Jimmy Graham in every one of my leagues. Only to get sporadic and inconsistent scoring out of them just as I had prescribed the position to be. It sucks even worst that these 2 particular TEs seemed to go out of their way to have the worst statistical seasons of their career. TE welcome back to the post 10th round draft slot!
I learned that if Payton Manning plays he is fantasy gold. (I drafted him in the 5th or 6th round in 3 leagues all of which I made the championship game)
I learned that while drafting is important, being quick and cunning at waiver wire pickups is the true path to victory. No matter how well you draft there are going to be some circumstances that arise (injury, benchings, etc) where ww players are going to consistenly outperform your roster players. You have to recognize that and make the necessary adjustments. And on this point handcuffing RBs is now a worthless art. If a productive RB goes out it is in no way an indication that the backup will approach the same level of production.
Things I observed
Quality WRs can be had in latter rounds. There is just not enough reward to justify the risk of drafting a WR in the first rd. My first WR was drafted in the 3rd rd (Brandon Marshall) and I managed to get either Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, or Vincent Jackson in rd 5 or later in all of my leagues. I also snagged Reggie Wayne at or after the 10 rd in every league.
Pay close attention to any true feature RB that others are predicting will bust. They will automatically become a great value as a RB3 or flex if they fall in the draft. This year it was Frank Gore. I drafted Gore in the 7th rd in one league and he was gold at the flex.
Every year 1 WR will emerge from Green Bay as the stud out of nowhere. Last year it was Jordy Nelson, the year before it was Greg Jennings, this year it was James Jones, who will it be next year?
If you play in an IDP league keep an eye on Dannell Ellerby, dude is going to be a beast replacing Ray Lewis!
Things I thought
I thought Brandon Lloyd would be a beast in New England similar to what happened when Randy Moss went there, I was horrifically wrong.
I thought Brandon Marshall would be a beast in Chicago, I was dead on!
I thought Matt Forte would fall off this year I was right about that also.
I thought Ryan Matthews would be a beast this year, he was so bad I questioned my sanity.
I thought avoiding drafting players that were holding out or injured was much ado about nothing; I drafted MJD, Ryan Matthews, and Mikel Leshoure on one team (the only team I didn't make playoffs with) and it was a mitigated disaster! Looking back the evidence was there I just thought I could outsmart the trend.
I think Colin Kaepernick = Michael Vick of 2010. He may shatter some fantasy records for pts scored in a single game, have a few stinkers but overall be a beast from week to week next year.
I think Michael Crabtree will be a legit WR1/WR2 next year.
I think Torrey Smith is more than just a bye week fill, he deserves a permanant spot on your roster.
I think Shannihan figured out that he actually does need a feature back to stick with to get the most out of that position and not just rotate every joe on the roster. If that is true then ride Alfred Morris as long as you can!
Things I know
Now more than ever it is important to get as many good RBs as you can in the early rds. For all those that drafted WR-WR in the first 2 rds how did that work out for you? Those teams all sucked in my leagues. There are about 35-40 quality WRs that will give you at least descent production. There are only about 20 RBs that fit that same catagory.
It makes absolutely no sense to draft a defense or a kicker before the 12th rd. This is because their production is not a function of what they did last year. Sure with defense you do have teams that are around the the top every year like Chicago, Pittsburg, Baltimore but there is no consistency at the top. It is not worth spending a 7th or 8th rd pick on Chicago when they could just as easily be middle of the pack in scoring. This year 2 of the best scoring defenses were Arizona and Seattle, both of which could have been picked up on the ww in most leagues as late as week 4. Personally I deploy the matchup strategy. I scour the ww and pick the best D that is going against the worst O that week. It works very well. Outside of New Orleans and Oakland any D going against KC, Jax, Ariz, or the Jets was a good matchup on most weeks. Of course next year will be different. Kickers are even worse. Last year Akers was the #1 kicker this year he sucked. Pick kickers based on the team they play on not on the individual.
The biggest difference between top tier QBs and the middle of the pack is consistency. Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, Griffin are all going to give you around 20+ pts every week. The middle will get you 20+ sometimes but not all times. The bottom teir will get you 20+ occasionally but it won't be a trend. Therefore if you are good a predicting matchups it is not that important to reach for a quality backup QB when you can plug a scrub and get descent production for the one week you need him.
In the spirit of full disclosure this past fantasy year I played in 5 leagues. I failed to make the playoffs in 1, lost in the first round of playoffs in 1, and lost the championship game in the other 3. So general success but ultimate failure.
Things I learned
I learned that TE is still an overrated position. In years past I would never draft a TE before 10th rd cause it was the most inconsistent position on the roster. Due to the proliferation of output in the past 2 years from that position I decided to change my draft strategy and (reach) for one of those so called top TE's. By the forth round I had drafted either Antionio Gates or Jimmy Graham in every one of my leagues. Only to get sporadic and inconsistent scoring out of them just as I had prescribed the position to be. It sucks even worst that these 2 particular TEs seemed to go out of their way to have the worst statistical seasons of their career. TE welcome back to the post 10th round draft slot!
I learned that if Payton Manning plays he is fantasy gold. (I drafted him in the 5th or 6th round in 3 leagues all of which I made the championship game)
I learned that while drafting is important, being quick and cunning at waiver wire pickups is the true path to victory. No matter how well you draft there are going to be some circumstances that arise (injury, benchings, etc) where ww players are going to consistenly outperform your roster players. You have to recognize that and make the necessary adjustments. And on this point handcuffing RBs is now a worthless art. If a productive RB goes out it is in no way an indication that the backup will approach the same level of production.
Things I observed
Quality WRs can be had in latter rounds. There is just not enough reward to justify the risk of drafting a WR in the first rd. My first WR was drafted in the 3rd rd (Brandon Marshall) and I managed to get either Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, or Vincent Jackson in rd 5 or later in all of my leagues. I also snagged Reggie Wayne at or after the 10 rd in every league.
Pay close attention to any true feature RB that others are predicting will bust. They will automatically become a great value as a RB3 or flex if they fall in the draft. This year it was Frank Gore. I drafted Gore in the 7th rd in one league and he was gold at the flex.
Every year 1 WR will emerge from Green Bay as the stud out of nowhere. Last year it was Jordy Nelson, the year before it was Greg Jennings, this year it was James Jones, who will it be next year?
If you play in an IDP league keep an eye on Dannell Ellerby, dude is going to be a beast replacing Ray Lewis!
Things I thought
I thought Brandon Lloyd would be a beast in New England similar to what happened when Randy Moss went there, I was horrifically wrong.
I thought Brandon Marshall would be a beast in Chicago, I was dead on!
I thought Matt Forte would fall off this year I was right about that also.
I thought Ryan Matthews would be a beast this year, he was so bad I questioned my sanity.
I thought avoiding drafting players that were holding out or injured was much ado about nothing; I drafted MJD, Ryan Matthews, and Mikel Leshoure on one team (the only team I didn't make playoffs with) and it was a mitigated disaster! Looking back the evidence was there I just thought I could outsmart the trend.
I think Colin Kaepernick = Michael Vick of 2010. He may shatter some fantasy records for pts scored in a single game, have a few stinkers but overall be a beast from week to week next year.
I think Michael Crabtree will be a legit WR1/WR2 next year.
I think Torrey Smith is more than just a bye week fill, he deserves a permanant spot on your roster.
I think Shannihan figured out that he actually does need a feature back to stick with to get the most out of that position and not just rotate every joe on the roster. If that is true then ride Alfred Morris as long as you can!
Things I know
Now more than ever it is important to get as many good RBs as you can in the early rds. For all those that drafted WR-WR in the first 2 rds how did that work out for you? Those teams all sucked in my leagues. There are about 35-40 quality WRs that will give you at least descent production. There are only about 20 RBs that fit that same catagory.
It makes absolutely no sense to draft a defense or a kicker before the 12th rd. This is because their production is not a function of what they did last year. Sure with defense you do have teams that are around the the top every year like Chicago, Pittsburg, Baltimore but there is no consistency at the top. It is not worth spending a 7th or 8th rd pick on Chicago when they could just as easily be middle of the pack in scoring. This year 2 of the best scoring defenses were Arizona and Seattle, both of which could have been picked up on the ww in most leagues as late as week 4. Personally I deploy the matchup strategy. I scour the ww and pick the best D that is going against the worst O that week. It works very well. Outside of New Orleans and Oakland any D going against KC, Jax, Ariz, or the Jets was a good matchup on most weeks. Of course next year will be different. Kickers are even worse. Last year Akers was the #1 kicker this year he sucked. Pick kickers based on the team they play on not on the individual.
The biggest difference between top tier QBs and the middle of the pack is consistency. Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, Griffin are all going to give you around 20+ pts every week. The middle will get you 20+ sometimes but not all times. The bottom teir will get you 20+ occasionally but it won't be a trend. Therefore if you are good a predicting matchups it is not that important to reach for a quality backup QB when you can plug a scrub and get descent production for the one week you need him.
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