The QB Youth Movement

Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
Don't look now, but there is a shift going on in the NFL at QB! An incredible 10 teams (31% of the league!) will be starting game 1 of the regular season with either rookie QB or 2nd year QB. Rookies Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden & Wilson are joined by 2nd year players Newton, Dalton, Gabbert, Locker & Ponder.

Here is how I rank the young guns in career potential:

1. Newton - Luck may be great, but ya gotta show me something to take Newton out of the top spot after last year.
2. Luck
3. Dalton
4. Griffin
5. Locker
6. Wilson
7. Ponder
8. Gabbert
9. Tannehill
10. Weeden
 
Miller said:
1. Newton - Luck may be great, but ya gotta show me something to take Newton out of the top spot after last year.
Click to expand...

How about I show you Vick's stats the year following his OMG 2002 season.

He wasn't quite a rookie but still took the NFL by storm and then fell into the abyss shortly after.
 
cctekguy said:
How about I show you Vick's stats the year following his OMG 2002 season.

He wasn't quite a rookie but still took the NFL by storm and then fell into the abyss shortly after.
Click to expand...
He fell into the abyss because he was fighting dogs....he also came back and is still a top 10 QB today. Are you foreshadowing Cam Newton going to prison for fighting dogs?

And following his 2002 season he broke his leg....again, are we foreshadowing Cam breaking his leg? For that matter, Luck could break his leg as well for all we know unless you have that magic injury crystal ball.....

But when he came back in 2004 he still ran for 902 yds despite pedestrian throwing numbers. 2005 was in fact his worst year it appears and he bounced back in 2006 with a 1000 yd rushing season and threw 20 TD's for the first time.

Vick had growing pains, but other than his dog fighting issues, he never fell into an abyss in my opinion and 10 years later is still a very relevant QB for a team who could contend in the NFC.

However, while all this Vick talk is fun, I'm not sure how relevant it is. Again, in 10 years if Newton shares the same stature as Vick does right now as a player, he will be a very solid and relevant NFL QB. May not be the best on that list, but top 3 for sure. Also, as a rookie, Newton compared to Vick's career highs in the following ways:
  • Completions 310 - Vick 253 (2011)
  • Attempts 517 - Vick 423 (2011)
  • Comp % 60% - Vick 62.2 (2010) *only season he has been above 60%
  • Yards 4,051 - Vick 3,303 (2011)
  • TD's 21 - Vick 21 (2010) *only season he hit that number
  • Rating 84.5 - Vick 100.2 (2010) *only season started that he was higher than 84.5
  • Ru Yds 706 - Vick 1,039 (2006) *has had 3 (2002, 2004, 2006) seasons over 706
  • Ru TD's 14 - Vick 9 (2010)
  • Games Played 16 - Vick 16 (2006) *only season he played 16 gms

So if your trying to use Vick as a matrix for what Cam may or may not do, his rookie season has already matched or exceeded Vick's career highs in completions, attempts, pa yds, pa TD's, ru Td's and games played in a season. In the areas that Vick has surpassed Cam's rookie numbers only in ru yds has he done it more than once in his career.

Just shines a light on what Cam really did last year as a ROOKIE. He had the most prolific rookie season a QB has had in terms of numbers I think. Due to that alone, I'll give him the number one spot on this list. It could change in time, but he's earned that spot from my eyes.
 
Miller said:
So if your trying to use Vick as a matrix for what Cam may or may not do...
Click to expand...

Don't get your boxers in a bind Miller. Cam is great....Really great.

Just saying that these young players always seem to find misfortune in one way or another that compromises their next season or two.

And, as always, I speak from a fantasy prospective only. Not saying he isn't the future in Carolina but burning a first round pick based on a players rookie numbers is a lot riskier than taking Brady or Brees.

And...some virgin superstars DO manage to avoid the "Young and Suddenly Rich" pitfalls. I don't think AP ever missed a beat but these guys are more the exception than the rule.

The impending episodes that a young NFL superstar experiences will not always end their career(see Mike Vick) but can sometimes diminish their returns for a period of years (see Mike Vick) and often times opens a door for another young hot shot to replace them (see Matt Ryan).
 
OK....but how does that effect ranking Cam number one or the entire subject of looking at all the 1st and 2nd yr QB's as a whole....guess you lost me on your point in the whole matter.....but regardless, yes, if you compare Cam to Brady or Brees......obviously they win.....if you compare Cam to anyone on this list as I have done, I can't rank any of them ahead of him.

How would you rank this group of 10? Not just for this year, but over the long haul?
 
<sigh> ...fantasy or reality?

In a dynasty league I would take Luck 1st....no questions. Then Dalton and Locker.

None of the other have any long term keeper appeal to me.

In a redraft, obviously Cam is the only choice.

In real life, not based on raw stats but rather the potential to be a successful QB for multiple years. Luck, Dalton, Locker, Gabbert, Cam and RGII.

I'm still waiting to see a leggy QB make the transition from "tuck-it" to "pocket" without interruption to their career.

Interesting side note:

Cam is one of only 3 NFL players EVER to Win the Heisman, Win a National Championship and be drafted 1st over-all in a one year span.

The other 2 are Leon Hart (1950) and Angelo Bertelli (1944). Not very impressive company for Cam though Hart did play for 8 years for Detroit. Bertelli got lost in the then "All-American Football Conference".
 
what exactly are you sighing about? is talking about young QB's that exhausting for you?

And either way you want to take it. Just looking to talk about these guys.

As far as "tuck it" to "pocket"....is Cam really either??? Sure, his rushing stats were awesome, but most of the rushing TD's where due to the fact that he was used as the goalline back and they were designed runs, not scrambling plays. Cam did very well from the pocket last year as a rookie as well. In fact, he broke the single season rookie passing yards record that was held by Payton Manning. So he kinda gave the best of both worlds......gave you great rushing stats, but also showed he can toss the rock as well by going for over 4,000 yards in the air.

And well aware of the stat, and I would say there is no company and not that is is not impressive company. Anytime you do something for the first time in the Super Bowl era, your in a league of your own.

I like that you are that high on Dalton, hope your right. I think he ends up as a better real like QB than fantasy, but in both, I see a guy who can be very good, just not great. In fact, in fantasy, it may just be good, not even very good.

In Luck, you could have the next golden boy. He has all the tools and is easy to put #1....I just can't ignore the best rookie QB season in the history of the game and will let Luck earn that top spot rather than give it to him. But he could easily end up at #1 by the end of the year in looking at this group.

Locker vs Griffin - this is a close one for me. I about put Locker above him, but he may be too reckless to last long in the league. It is part of why I like him so much, but we'll have to see how he holds up and if he can adjust to a smart style over a gutsy style. Griffin is raw talent, will be interesting to see how he develops. I think he has the biggest bust factor out of the top 5.
 
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