The Big 4....can anyone crack it?

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
Looks like the top 4 in this years fantasy drafts is pretty clear cut. The order may be different depending on who your talking to, but most will concede that Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew & Ray Rice should be the first 4 off the board.

So who's next? Can anyone crack this top 4? Should anyone be ahead of any of them?
 
Gore, SJax, and Turner are the next RB's off the board at this point IMO. I wouldn't be shocked to see Gore crack the top 4 in some drafts...not saying I'd do it but I think he's setup to have a nice year...
 
Everyone comfortable with Gore's ability to stay healthy?

Nope, but I'm not comfortable with any 1st round RB's ability to remain healthy in my lineup. I seem to have a knack for drafting a gimp in the 1st round lately.
 
Everyone comfortable with Gore's ability to stay healthy?
Nope. However, with the added O-line fixes San Fran has gotten, this could be a very good year for Gore and A.Smith.

Add to that there is some confusion right now in San Fran on who will back up Gore....that could lead to more carries for Gore.

Still, I don't see anyone breaking that top 4.
 
Everyone comfortable with Gore's ability to stay healthy?


No way am I comfortable that Gore will stay healthy as a matter of fact I'd bet against it. With what I expect to be improved play from Hill I expect Gore to have a great season in the games that he is healthy.

Those should be the top 4 picks period.
 
Agree Mud, think this is going to be a down year for Gore. Not due to talent or improvement of the team; but due to his inability to stay healthy. He'll have some great games when he's healthy, but I won't spend a top 5 pick on him and count on him as my anchor. Looks like he'll be taken far before I am comfortable pulling the trigger.
 
I think Gore is in for a huge season..............

The health issue really goes back to college when he had two ACL surgeries, but those haven't been the injuries that have caused him to miss games, which happens to be 5 (plus he injured his ankle early in the Minnesota game) in his 4 years as a starter. Not ideal, but hardly what I would call "injury prone". Also, they are not chronic injuries that linger.

Also, when you consider that he has averaged 4.8 for his career, running behind below average OLs AND with no passing attack to keep the defense honest, that's a testimony to his talent. Amazing really. Their OL should be dramatically improved with Davis and Iupati replacing the sieve that is Adam Snyder (to be fair, he was out of position at OT) and Baas, and now that they have a decent passing game, it should give Gore a little more room to manuever. Plus, he is an excellent receiver and has no RBCC issues.

The guy is a warrior. He wanted and could have come back a game sooner in 2008, but since the team was going nowhere, they held him out an extra game.

Pass on Gore at your own risk..................:xpopcorn:
 
I can semi agree with the "health risk" angle on Gore, but who ISN'T a health risk. You just can't pass on a guy because he might get injured. Remember when Andre was an injury risk?

Gore will be touching the ball more than most RB's so that alone increases the risk.

Improved O-Line I agree with but I'm not willing to concede an improved pass game. It's still Alex Smith and I think it will still be a lot of short passes to Davis and Gore.

I'm much more concerned with a player's "jerk" risk than I am an injury. CJ holding out and making demands will be a lot more detrimental to his season than Gore missing a couple of games will his.

If CJ were gonna cost me a 1 to keep, I don't think I'd keep him. Besides his monetary dissatisfaction he's also facing the post 2000 yd season curse.
 
Improved O-Line I agree with but I'm not willing to concede an improved pass game. It's still Alex Smith and I think it will still be a lot of short passes to Davis and Gore.

I have a feeling that people are going to be pleasantly surprised with the SF passing game this year. I have been as critical as anyone of Smith, but he played pretty well last year, everything considered. For the 1st time in his career, he is going into the same system for a 2nd year and his the undisputed starter for the first time since 07. Not saying he will be top tier, but I expect a big improvement. The OL changes will help keep him off his back and running for his life.

This should open things up for Gore. Guy is so good, it would be nice to see him with even an average OL and some threat of a passing game to stop teams from stacking the line. Big season ahead as he will also catch 60+ passes if Jimmy Rae is smart.............
 
Few stats to consider on Gore:
Breakout season: 2006
312 carries; 1,695 yds; 8 TD's; 61 receptions; 485 yds; 1 TD
A total of 373 touches that season.

Since his best season which was also by far his heaviest workload, Gore's carries and receptions have done the following:
2007 - 260 car - 53 rec - 313 Total
2008 - 240 car - 43 rec - 283 Total
2009 - 229 car - 52 rec - 281 Total

That is a 25% reduction in total touches from his career high in 2006 (decreasing every year). Sprinkled in there is the 5 games due to various injuries he has missed, never playing a 16 games season in the 3 years since his career year.

From a production standpoint, kid has mad talent and his ypc has always been strong. Last year's 4.9 was not his 5.4 in 2006, but no one is going to bitch about 4.9! However, the total production has never rebounded close to his 06 season. A lot of this is due to the decreased opportunities and missed games. Taking out 2006 his yardage high is 1,120 on the ground in 2009 and 436 in the air in 2007. His 07 mark of 1538 total yds was his next best season.

The plus side on Gore is his TD production picked up last year to a career high of 13, in part due to a better offense around him. This is where his increase in value is, the TD potential goes from single digit to possibly the 15 area if he can stay on the field.

My concerns overall is that while Gore flashed his best in 06, that season also cost him a little something. That is a lot of work on a body that has proved to not be the most durable in the world. Add to that a violent running style and I'm not sure he's going to handle a 350+ touch season. In all likely hood what you have seen for him is his new reality. 280-300 total touches, 1500-1600 total yds and 10 TD's. Not too shabby by any means and nothing to frown at.

But, not sure the upside of 2006 is still there. He runs very hard and his body does seem to start to breakdown at some point. Forcasting him for 14 games seems to be a good mark at this point, but my concern on guys like this is that the 2 games a year becomes 8. This won't make me cross him off my list, but it will make me tend to favor someone who I feel is a bit safer or someone who I feel has a little more upside in the high to mid first round. Your not going to win the league in rd 1...but you can lose it. If it's later in the first and I can combo him with a solid #2, then I'm lookin, but chances are someone has taken the risk by then. Like him.....just don't love him.....
 
His 2006 season was his best because Larry Allen played very well that year after coming over as a FA and Jonas Jennings was actually worth a crap for a majority of the season for the only time in his stint with the Niners. Best OL play he has had in his career. Plus, Smith actually did pretty well that year so they had at least some threat of a passing game to keep the D honest. Plus, they kept games close so they were able to commit to the running game.

The last three years, their line play has sucked and until the 2nd half of 2009, they were usually behind, so they couldn't commit to the run, meaning less opportunity.

Sometimes statistics don't tell the story. When you're behind and your line sucks, hard to run the ball and there is less opportunity. With a solid defense to keep them in games, a better OL and an improved passing game, I expect Gore to get in the 280 carry range and another 55 or so receptions. I even figured in two missed games to keep the "injury prone" argument out of it. With the kind of football Singletary wants to play and the fact that an improved passing game should reduce the 3 and outs, I don't think 20 carries a game in high. I also don't think his career average of 4.8 is too much to expect, so assuming he doesn't miss more than two games, 1400 yards rushing and another 400 yards receiving is reasonable. If he does play in all 16, 2000 total yards in achievable.

One last point. I know Davis and Iupati are rookies, but both are big upgrades over what they had. Also, Sims, Baas (or Rachel), Wragge and Snyder (not a bad guard) give them some depth if they do have an injury. I may be overly optimistic here, but I really think the O-line is going to be good this year.

Anyway, we'll see...............
 
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