Thar's Gold In Them Thar Hands

[cctekguy]

Or is there?

I did some number crunching with the SOFFL and SOFFL2 drafts. My goal was to produce a graphic that would emphasize this year's bent towards WRs but I just couldn't manipulate the numbers to support my case.

The two leagues are identical in that they both start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE 1DST and 1PK and offer the same scoring system. The only difference is that SOFFL carries a 20 man roster vs SOFFL2 which has only 18, so lets start here with the "WR Are King" dissolution.

In SOFFL, I looked at how those last 2 roster spots were used. With teams that chose a D or K, I worked back up to their last positional pick. There were only 3 teams that used their last 2 picks for both a D and K so it wasn't that hard.

Of the last 24 positional picks in SOFFL, 10 were WR, 9 RBs, 3 TEs and 2 QB. No testimony to support WR hording in this area of the draft so lets just forget that they even exist and focus on the meat of the draft.

Positional fulfillment is where I thought I would see the biggest disparity between WR and RB but my suspicions proved unfounded. I didn't dissect each team and their individual picks but rather multiplied 12 (teams) X 3 (starting WR) and 12 X 2 (RB) and then found the round in which the cumulative position had been filled.

In SOFFL, the 36th WR was taken 7:12. In II it was 8:5.

The RBs ranked higher with a positional fulfillment in rounds 6:6 and 5:7 respectively.

QBs met their 12 at rounds 8:13 & 9:4 while TEs rounded out the group at 10:7 & 9:7.

In the draft overall (216 picks), the percentage of each positional player taken in the 2 leagues was:

SOFFL SOFFL2
QB 13.4 12.5
RB 30.0 26.9
WR 37.9 34.3
TE 12.0 10.7

(Numbers are skewed due to 2 extra rounds for SOFFL)

If you divide those numbers by the % of the starting roster that each position makes up you can come up with a factor that represents which position each league favored.

Soffl Soffl2

Qb 1.2 1.1
RB 1.3 1.21
WR 1.1 1.03
TE 1.08 .96

Not only does this destroy the myth that RBs are being replaced by WRs, but shows that QBs are prized higher than WRs.

Keep drafting those RBs folks.

Don't get faked out by the END ABOUND.

 

[Skedar120]

I should be surprised by this, and in some ways I am, but part of me saw it coming. It's always seemed to me that in leagues like SOFFLs I and II, there's no distinct advantage to having a prized receiving corp over a prized rb corp.

The scoring would appear to favor WRs, but think about it. They both get the same amount of points for receptions, yards, and TDs. Take into consideration, though, the possibility of all 3 of your starting receivers having an off day, whether its due to great defense, steady running game, or crappy QB play. I'll use my SOFFL II team as an example.

RBs: MJD, Beanie Wells
WRs: Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens.

All solid guys at their respective positions. More than likely, the players susceptible to low scoring are the receviers. All 5 of the teams above (with exception to Indy, maybe) have very well established rushing offense, meaning if the game is tight, they will most likely stick to the run.

Wide receivers shine in three places: studs, comeback opportunities (ie, 2 minute drill) and garbage time. Indy, as an example, has quite a few receiving weapons in Wayne, Clark, Garcon, Collie, etc. Most of the time, if Wayne doesn't put up great numbers, it's because Clark is getting a good share, or maybe he just isn't getting the same number of looks, or maybe Peyton is having a checkdown kind of day, who knows? But by the 4th quarter, Indy knows whether or not they've won the game. If Wayne had a bad day, oh well. Probably too late to recover any of it.

Let's flip it around. My two starting RBs' teams have little prominence through the air. Meaning: more running opportunities, and more likely target for checkdown passes.

And don't forget about goal line opportunities. Nobody proved it better than the Cowboys in the HoF game, running the ball in goal line proves better than passing 90% of the time.

As far as the QBs go, it doesn't seem to me that average guys would have great value, but look at the top scorers from last years SOFFL II: Fantasy Football: SOFFL II Top Performers/Player Stats

In the top 30, I count 8 WRs, with the top coming in at #14. There are 5 RBs, 3 of which are in the top 10. That leaves 16 QBs (enough for every team to claim one as a starter), and Dallas Clark. 7 QBs in the top 10. 3 names that stick out to me in this list are David Garrard (24), Jason Campbell (27), and Kyle Orton (30). None of these strike me as "elite" QBs, but you can't deny that they were (statistically) more valuable than some big names in the other position players. If I dug deeper (and I may at some point) I think the point differential between high-end RBs/WRs would be close (percentage wise) to that of mid-round RBs/WRs.

Essentially, what I'm getting at here is this: even in PPR leagues, I would rather have two great RBs than two great WRs, because WRs are more susceptible to decreased performance. And with 50% of the top scoring coming from QBs, don't count them out either. I'm by no means saying that if you have an AJ/Randy Moss duo with someone like Ocho Cinco as your #3, that you won't have success, I'm just playing by the numbers here.




By the way, I totally didn't mean to write this much. I just had a thought and ran with it.

 

[Skedar120]

Addendum:

Bodey was the points leader last year by nearly 200 over the next closest (roughly 14 PPG higher than #2). I don't think its coincidence that he got that by having 4 dynamic RBs. All 4 outplayed his 8 receivers, excluding Brandon Marshall and Roddy White. If I'm not mistaken, he traded away Ray Rice (and Brent Celek) to get Roddy White (and Ryan Grant). Had he not done that, his point total would have been even higher.

 

[Sgt John]

Remind me to pay you both for this. Very nice work guys.
Posted via Mobile Device

 

[Miller]

Now this is one hell of a topic!! Great job by both teckie and Skedar. 1 mil to both!

Now for my mini-take here. Will try to expand later.

In FF, owners as a whole seem to be a year behind. Drafting importance seems to greatly reflect the trend from the year before. 2 yrs ago was the year of the WR and last year we saw this in drafts. However, QB's seem to make a stir last year with so many Elite QB's having Elite years. I am seeing that drive the top QB's up some this year due to this. RB's also had a nice rebound last year, escpecially at the top, and due to this many owners once again have RB on the mind in search of this year's Ray Rice.

I still beleive that in ppr leagues that start at least 3 WR's you are better off trying to get sick WR depth. RB's can be picked up later that can fill in.

 

[Coachnorm]

There does appear to be some more enthusiasm for WRs early then there was several years ago. But it seems to wane quickly after an early surge. There are a dozen or so elite WRs and they seem to go earlier then they used to. Then there are a few #2 WRs that put up close to solid #1 WR type numbers despite being the second fiddle these guys Like Welker and Housh seem to come and go in popularity as does there production. Housh has dropped like a rock after one so so year in Seattle. Welker started out low this year but seems to be rising in more recent drafts as he sounds a lot more healthy recently. But half the quote, unquote #1 Wrs put up rather pedestrian numbers and the WR grab starts to slow up quickly at this point.

While the shift isn't all that dramatic it is there. It does have an effect on the early part of the draft. In the SOFFL draft I was totally delighted to see Packer RB Ryan Grant still available at my 2.09 pick and didn't give a single thought to grabbing a WR there.

.

 

[mudloggerone]

Great work men.

 

[Skedar120]

In FF, owners as a whole seem to be a year behind. Drafting importance seems to greatly reflect the trend from the year before. 2 yrs ago was the year of the WR and last year we saw this in drafts. However, QB's seem to make a stir last year with so many Elite QB's having Elite years. I am seeing that drive the top QB's up some this year due to this. RB's also had a nice rebound last year, escpecially at the top, and due to this many owners once again have RB on the mind in search of this year's Ray Rice.

I still beleive that in ppr leagues that start at least 3 WR's you are better off trying to get sick WR depth. RB's can be picked up later that can fill in.

I definitely agree with this, and I do it the same as everyone year in and year out. Its honestly an argument I've used to counter "fantasy experts" opinions. I think we can all agree that history tends to repeat itself, but we're talking about 10+ years before it comes full circle again. I watched something on NFL network where they examined the evolution of the pro offense, and it fully supports this argument. It only starts changing once the defensive scheme as a whole finds a way to stop the current trend. Just like a chess match.

If an offense has a great passing threat, teams beef up the secondary and switch to more zone and blitz packages to get into the QBs head. So the offense, trying to be a step ahead, drafts a stud RB to take advantage of that. Then the defense figured out that they may need help on the front lines, enough that you have to assign a linebacker to cover the RB 24/7. Well that opens up the middle of the field to the TE and the slot receiver. So you spread the offense again. By this time, perhaps you've lost some of your secondary to trades, retirements, FA, etc. QB has the green light again. We're back at square one. Again, the process takes years, but it does happen.

You mentioned finding this year's Ray Rice. Last year it was finding the next Michael Turner. Before that it was finding the next Matt Forte. Who is it going to be next year? All hype seems to point to finding the next Ryan Matthews.

And as far as depth goes, its much easier to get good depth at WR than at RB, naturally. NFL teams may have as many as 3-4 viable targets at WR as far as fantasy is concerned, but usually only 1 RB and a 3DRB or goal line RB. Simple supply and demand.

WRs still thrive in what you could consider a league that leans towards run-first offenses, and they probably always will. QB and RB value fluctuates so often that all of fantasy football essentially becomes a guessing game. Last year happened to be a great year for RBs, and even better for QBs, even sub-par QBs. Should we expect that again? I really have no idea, but I can tell you that I bit this year in some leagues and drafted a QB late because the value was intact last year. Granted, you can make educated guesses, but guesses nonetheless.

 

[gruntbusters]

Great work men.

and the women that support you ;-)

 

[bobbeaux]

i think teams were using adp more this year and were taking players so others couldn't have them . . . i saw many teams not concerned with needs as much as value . . . just my opinion . . .

great work, guys . . .

 

[Sgt John]

Remind me to pay you both for this. Very nice work guys.
Posted via Mobile Device

Additional $500,000 paid to both of you.

 

[cctekguy]

i think teams were using adp more this year and were taking players so others couldn't have them . . . i saw many teams not concerned with needs as much as value . . . just my opinion . . .

great work, guys . . .

And some teams just screwed up their pre-draft picks.

 

[storminn0rm]

i think teams were using adp more this year and were taking players so others couldn't have them . . . i saw many teams not concerned with needs as much as value . . . just my opinion . . .

I also think teams were taking advantage of ADP a lot more this year. I saw guys taken 3 full rounds above their ADP, and normally I don't see that. I definitely made me work harder once the draft started and I saw this happening. Had to change draft strategy on the fly to combat that.