Seahawks RB Julius Jones: A Fantasy Mystery Man

Coachnorm

Coachnorm

Moderator
A RB of much debate here at Sports Outlaw. :)

But the Seahawks seem to have committed to him. Many would argue by default. But he is a RB that will need to be quantified before our Fantasy Football drafts.

While his performance has not been top tier to say the least, he will get carries.

But he should go later in a lot of drafts, could he be one of the better value picks at Running Back this year?

The Seahawks let their O-Line go for awhile but have been rebuilding it recently. They invested in an OT this year and this years O-Line has the potential to be pretty good. They also Picked up a Fullback in free agency.

So?
 
Arctic Dawgs

Arctic Dawgs

Well-Known Member
Coachnorm said:
While his performance has not been top tier to say the least, he will get carries.

But he should go later in a lot of drafts, could he be one of the better value picks at Running Back this year?

The Seahawks let their O-Line go for awhile but have been rebuilding it recently. They invested in an OT this year and this years O-Line has the potential to be pretty good. They also Picked up a Fullback in free agency.
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Yes he will be getting the carries. Now that we have the "Good News" out of the way, lets get to the "Rest of the Story"

They invested in an OT this year and this years O-Line has the potential to be pretty good.
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Who is that of which you speak. They drafted Unger (C/G). The OLine looks to be Jones, Wahle, Unger/(Spencer), Simms/(Unger, Wrotto), Locklear (Willis). Final slots will be determined by Ungers ability to make the reads and calls at center versus Spencers back injury.
The biggest difference will be the new Zone-Blocking scheme (smoke and mirrors ??) they will be running. Wahle has been shown to not be very effective doing that during his Carolina years. I also wonder how Jones will adapt.
If Jones and/or Wahle are hurting or ineffective the lineup would be Locklear, Simms, Unger/(Spencer), (Unger/Wrotto), Willis. If Hassleback is again forced into having to throw on the run, I fear another mountain of cascading (he he) injuries like last year. Maybe Seneca can run a Wildcat/Option offence

In the backfield Seattle has Jones, Duckett, and Forsett with a couple UDFA's at RB, behind FBs Schmitt and Griffith. I believe the loss of FB/RB/HB Weaver will hurt this group more than many people realize. You can't grade anyone based on last year in Seattle, so Mike will have to fill me in on how great a blocker J.Jones is picking up the blitz. That could wind up being the key to the Seahawks offence this year.
Personally I would pencil Jones in for between 1200 and 1500 yds with about 8 TDs max. Not bad from a fantasy point of view (200 pts), but if you feel as I do, that that will be 95% of the teams total rushing numbers (105 yds/gm), it don't look good for Seattle.

:shake:
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Arctic Dawgs said:
Personally I would pencil Jones in for between 1200 and 1500 yds with about 8 TDs max. Not bad from a fantasy point of view (200 pts)
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AD, you have lost it my friend. 1200-1500?? Not a freaking chance.

Jones has never even hit 1100 YDs once in a season in his entire career.

8 TDs would also be a career high.

So basically, you're predicting that Jones will have a career year, eclipsing his yards and TD marks.

Not gonna happen.

At Jones' YPC average for his career, he would need 300 carries this year. That would also be a career high.

When I am drafting RBs past the midway point in a draft, I want guys with some upside. Jones just doesn't have any upside.
 
Arctic Dawgs

Arctic Dawgs

Well-Known Member
Please note that I only penciled Seattle for 16/17 hundred yards rushing as a team. :eek

I never looked at his history at all. Only his situation. The 8TDs was a max figuring Duckett will vulture short yardage TDs

If it isn't JJ, then who ?? Or do you think Seattle will not achieve the team numbers I forecast. They have a medium schedule this year with the NFC North and the AFC South, as well as only 1 EST game (a nightmare for Seattle).

Seattles Rushing #'s last year
JJ - 158 for 700yds 2 TDs (66yds Rec) 4.4 yds/car
Ducky - 62 for 172 8 TDs 2.8 yds/car
Seahawks - 417 for 1768 10TDs 4.2 yds/car
(Morris - 132 for 574 0 TD's (136 Rec) 4.3 yds/car)
(JJ + MM - 290 for 1275 2 TDs (200yds Rec) 1475 Total Yards

And that was during a horendous injury plagued year. I think I'll stick with those #'s even if it is a carreer year for Jones.

Didn't realize until now that Duckett got 8 of 10 rushing TDs last year
 
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Arctic Dawgs

Arctic Dawgs

Well-Known Member
Looks like those #'s would have put him somewhere around #8/#12 fantsy RB last year. I think that is about right as a high cieling for him
 
Orgazmo

Orgazmo

Well-Known Member
When he gets around 20 carries he usually gives great results. But for whatever reason, in Dallas and Seattle, those carries keep getting reduced. One reason I heard was fumbling, but I think he only had one - maybe two - fumbles all year. Seems kind of harsh unless he fumbles like mad in practice. Anyone know what he's doing to earn doghouse time?
 
Arctic Dawgs

Arctic Dawgs

Well-Known Member
Well, that is the 1st time in my life I ever tried doing Stat Projection. I always use a ranking system. I guess we'll see

Mora/Knapp say they are going to rely on the run more. We'll see. I don't think they can with that team. Best they can hope for is take some of the heat off the passing game
 
ExperiencedRookie

ExperiencedRookie

Well-Known Member
Current ADP for Jones right now in a 12 team draft is 8.02. If he's going to get 1200-1500 and 8 TDs he would be a freaking steal in the 8th.

Other RBs taken close to Jones:

7.01 Hightower
7.02 Knowshon Moreno
7.03 Felix Jones
7.06 Jamal Lewis
7.08 Darren Sproles
8.07 McGahee
8.08 Chris Wells
8.11 Earnest Graham
8.12 Ahmad Bradshaw

Considering the company that Jones is keeping in this group, he's not a bad pick. Although there are a few guys in there who have a lot more upside than Jones does.

Can't see myself picking him in any league unless he's available in the 10+ Rd range.
 
WesDawg

WesDawg

'Burghapologist
Please let me in a 12-team league that Jones is an 8th round projection. I'll side with AD's projection here, for a few reasons. I feel Unger will definitely start. That reshuffles the other line positions except W.Jones and allows for a positive realignment. Housh is very skilled as a downfield blocker, which may not seem like big deal until you watch a 5 yard sweep turn into a 15 yard gain because a LB or Safety was chip-blocked. Maurice Morris is gone, and he took touches directly away from JJ, not Duckett.
Basically, he is the perfect guy to allow a fantasy owner to avoid the RB-RB stereotypical draft strategy and go RB-WR-QB with an eye on a dude like JJ in the 4th/5th round. I'm totally secure having him as a RB2 in almost any format.
The fact that he's going after Hightower, Felix Jones, and Sproles is a travesty.
 
M

Mustang Jones

Banned
all props to the proper people. great stuff

JJ on my fantasy team? Only if I go QB too soon. And even then I'm gonna hate myself for the rest of the season.

solid threeRB that I will pass on to shore up problems at WR or QB or get a top TE.

just my two c
 
M

Mustang Jones

Banned
DearbornDolfan said:
Won't work. In either the lineman have to be strong at the point of attack and hold their blocks longer than usual. Combining ZBS with option or zone read is asking for trouble.
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you sound like I wish i could talk, only sober.

What do you mean, and I'm not sure, but I think you swore at me!

is there a pill for that?
 
DearbornDolfan

DearbornDolfan

Active Member
With a zone blocking scheme your backs have to be one cut and go runners, largely because the linemen are cut blocking and by definition can't stay on the block. Option and zone read offenses require physical, consistent, stand up blocking at the point of attack because the backs don't always find the hole immediately.
 
M

Mustang Jones

Banned
DearbornDolfan said:
With a zone blocking scheme your backs have to be one cut and go runners, largely because the linemen are cut blocking and by definition can't stay on the block. Option and zone read offenses require physical, consistent, stand up blocking at the point of attack because the backs don't always find the hole immediately.
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I still don't see which stock to buy. To better explain, i recommend the first minute and a half of this cllip. just having some fun
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rlt23LWM6jQ"]YouTube - See No Evil Hear No Evil Interrogation[/ame]

It's like this:

maybe that's too much for the casual fan. and it's a great clip. you do what you do, DD. I'm a fan of that.
 
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Escrow

Escrow

Well-Known Member
I like Jones a lot this year...they have a receiver now in seattle, and the line is a lot better. I think some of you need to be a little more open minded, and realize that he has always split carries with a back, now if he is featured....watch what happens
 
WesDawg

WesDawg

'Burghapologist
DearbornDolfan said:
With a zone blocking scheme your backs have to be one cut and go runners, largely because the linemen are cut blocking and by definition can't stay on the block. Option and zone read offenses require physical, consistent, stand up blocking at the point of attack because the backs don't always find the hole immediately.
Click to expand...

I believe this is why Denver made so much hay in the Shanahan running game with quick, undersized linemen and pretty much any RB on their roster with a pulse was churning out 100-yd. games.
 
Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
I loved him as a sleeper last season and got burnt.....I'm a little gun shy on him at the moment, just don't think he can carry the load by himself.
 
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