Rookie WR's can not succeed.....Truth or Myth?

Miller

Miller

Who Dey
Administrator
**Discussion that broke out in the sleeper topic. Take a look at page two, a good article on the subject and also some added numbers that further help shed light on this subject.

the myth that rookie WR's can not succeed in their rookie year seems to be outdated, more and more you see rookies come in and make an impact their first season.

09 - Harvin, Nicks
08 -Royal, D Jackson
07 - Bowe, Cal Johnson
06 - Colston, Holmes
05 - none (no impact significant to add, but Edwards, C. Henry & R Brown were the best of the group)
04 - Fitz, Evans, R Williams, Mi Clayton
03 - AJ, Boldin
There are a few who made an impact their rookie years. Seems like there is at least 1 impact rookie every year.
 
Miller said:
the myth that rookie WR's can not succeed in their rookie year seems to be outdated, more and more you see rookies come in and make an impact their first season.

09 - Harvin, Nicks
08 -Royal, D Jackson
07 - Bowe, Cal Johnson
06 - Colston, Holmes
05 - none (no impact significant to add, but Edwards, C. Henry & R Brown were the best of the group)
04 - Fitz, Evans, R Williams, Mi Clayton
03 - AJ, Boldin
There are a few who made an impact their rookie years. Seems like there is at least 1 impact rookie every year.
Click to expand...
1 or 2 a year aid my arguement! No big deal really, but just remember it's a Sleeper pick.
 
Remote Controller said:
1 or 2 a year aid my arguement! No big deal really, but just remember it's a Sleeper pick.
Click to expand...
huh? How may rookies would you expect to do well exactly?? The fact that at least 1-2 EVERY year seem to do well, and add to that the fact like chris pointed out usually it is one of the ones expected to do so, means that it works out quite often.....like every year for at least one rookie....

There are plenty of arguments against Thomas IMO, but being a rookie isn't one. At one point, that list was 1-2 in a 3 year period if that....just not the case anymore.

A better case against Thomas is the offense he is coming out of and the steep learning curve he is going to be dealing with. I don't see him jumping straight from a triple option when it was a shock when they actually threw the ball to the NFL where there is not another legit big time threat to take the pressure off of him without some major learning pains.
 
Miller said:
huh? How may rookies would you expect to do well exactly?? The fact that at least 1-2 EVERY year seem to do well, and add to that the fact like chris pointed out usually it is one of the ones expected to do so, means that it works out quite often.....like every year for at least one rookie....

There are plenty of arguments against Thomas IMO, but being a rookie isn't one. At one point, that list was 1-2 in a 3 year period if that....just not the case anymore.

A better case against Thomas is the offense he is coming out of and the steep learning curve he is going to be dealing with. I don't see him jumping straight from a triple option when it was a shock when they actually threw the ball to the NFL where there is not another legit big time threat to take the pressure off of him without some major learning pains.
Click to expand...

So do you have another buck on The Rookie?
 
that one rookie WR will finish in the top 30? Sure....it happens every year. That the rookie will be Thomas?? Hell no, I just have a better reason that that he is simply a rookie.
 
Miller said:
that one rookie WR will finish in the top 30? Sure....it happens every year. That the rookie will be Thomas?? Hell no, I just have a better reason that that he is simply a rookie.
Click to expand...
That he will beat Gaffney in total fantasy points this year.


All I said was Gaffney was a sleeper and would beat out Thomas, because Thomas won't be ready yet.
 
I didn't disagree with ya on Thomas, so why would I possibly bet on him?

All I did was bring out facts that disprove the yearly comments that suggest that rookie WR's can't succeed, I think it is an outdated myth.
and just how often has that worked out for Rookie Wr's?
Click to expand...
I was just showing that it can indeed work out for rookie WR's. I think that is a huge mistake some owners make, they still stay away from rookie WR's like the plague....you just have to pick the right one and they can be a very nice sleeper in the end.

That was my only point.....
.
 
Miller said:
I didn't disagree with ya on Thomas, so why would I possibly bet on him?

All I did was bring out facts that disprove the yearly comments that suggest that rookie WR's can't succeed, I think it is an outdated myth.
I was just showing that it can indeed work out for rookie WR's. I think that is a huge mistake some owners make, they still stay away from rookie WR's like the plague....you just have to pick the right one and they can be a very nice sleeper in the end.

That was my only point.....so carry on with your Thomas vs whoever argument with someone who actually likes thomas. Were on the same page with Thomas. Personally, there isn't a Denver WR I would draft this year.
Click to expand...
Well fine then.
I still say that when the # of Wr's that get drafted every year are taken into consideration, and the fact teams start 2 and play 3 often, the number who come thru and make impact are minimal and the 12 plus you mentioned over the last 8-10 years didn't aid your arguement. :cunning:


--edited to say I do agree that things have changed to make it abit easier, but that change has as much to do with the CASH the top WR picks are getting, as it has to do with new offensive schemes. The teams HAVE TO PLAY THEM.
 
Remote Controller said:
Well fine then.
I still say that when the # of Wr's that get drafted every year are taken into consideration, and the fact teams start 2 and play 3 often, the number who come thru and make impact are minimal and the 12 plus you mentioned over the last 8-10 years didn't aid your arguement. :cunning:


--edited to say I do agree that things have changed to make it abit easier, but that change has as much to do with the CASH the top WR picks are getting, as it has to do with new offensive schemes. The teams HAVE TO PLAY THEM.
Click to expand...
So by your logic, since most teams carry 5-6 veteran WR's and start 2-3 each, the fact that the number that come through in comparison is minimal by comparison, we can safely say that you should not draft veteran WR's.....

The fact that you have 2-3 rookies most years is significant when talking about the number of WR's. If 2-3 finish in the top 30, that could be 10%.....again, how many are you looking for? Even 2 in the top 30 is statistically relevent!

And I disagree with your last statement completely....teams don't have to pay their rookie WR's any more then they HAVE to play their rookie corner or rookie LT....not sure where you were going with that one.
 
Miller said:
So by your logic, since most teams carry 5-6 veteran WR's and start 2-3 each, the fact that the number that come through in comparison is minimal by comparison, we can safely say that you should not draft veteran WR's.....

The fact that you have 2-3 rookies most years is significant when talking about the number of WR's. If 2-3 finish in the top 30, that could be 10%.....again, how many are you looking for? Even 2 in the top 30 is statistically relevent!

And I disagree with your last statement completely....teams don't have to pay their rookie WR's any more then they HAVE to play their rookie corner or rookie LT....not sure where you were going with that one.
Click to expand...
Pretty simple really. Rookie Wr's simply still have poor track records, but you can continue arguing as long as you want. Nothing you have said sways me a bit, and I'm not trying to sway you. We've all seen the 6 pager you are gunning for. I don't want you to bore us! :grin:
 
good topic, split it off.

If I moved something you want back in the sleeper post go ahead and repost there.
 
Remote Controller said:
Pretty simple really. Rookie Wr's simply still have poor track records, but you can continue arguing as long as you want. Nothing you have said sways me a bit, and I'm not trying to sway you. We've all seen the 6 pager you are gunning for. I don't want you to bore us! :grin:
Click to expand...
You summed it up there....you refuse to look at the facts and change with the time. To say rookie WR's have poor track records when they make up nearly 10% of the top 30 in recent years is just not factually correct. You can stick your head in the sand all you want, doesn't bother me. But to say they have poor track records is simply laughable.

Again, just don't draft anyone then......b/c your logic will always leave you disappointed since after all, out of the 220 or so WR's in the league only 30 will crack the top 30 ;) What a crappy %.....

But feel free to either back up these comical myths from the 70's or just stick your tail between your legs and run since we all know you hate the 6 pagers :cunning:

:xpopcorn:have a feeling you'll be back.....
 
Miller said:
You summed it up there....you refuse to look at the facts and change with the time. To say rookie WR's have poor track records when they make up nearly 10% of the top 30 in recent years is just not factually correct. You can stick your head in the sand all you want, doesn't bother me. But to say they have poor track records is simply laughable.

Again, just don't draft anyone then......b/c your logic will always leave you disappointed since after all, out of the 220 or so WR's in the league only 30 will crack the top 30 ;) What a crappy %.....

But feel free to either back up these comical myths from the 70's or just stick your tail between your legs and run since we all know you hate the 6 pagers :cunning:

:xpopcorn:have a feeling you'll be back.....
Click to expand...
That post would have never been posted in this thread. That post was an attempt to get the sleeper thread back on track. You can continue to belittle what I have to say as much as you want Miller. I am used to it, and you run the site. No win situation.


You win and are right as always.
 
For people who want to learn more about this topic and discuss it further, here is a great article on the subject from Salvatore Marcoccio III at FFToday. It is 2 years old, but some fantastic STATS that further back up the point I was making. Don't fall into this myth, rookie WR's can make a significan impact for you team this year and into the future.

Young Targets: An Examination of Rookie WRs - Salvatore Marcoccio III - FF Today

I don’t think the fact that Randy Moss sits atop this list would come as a surprise to anyone. His rookie year was legendary, but the fact that 18 rookie wide receivers have amassed over 700 yards – with many eclipsing or approaching 1,000 yards and 15 have grabbed at least six touchdowns - in the last ten seasons puts to rest the notion that rookie wide receivers have no rightful place on your fantasy football roster. Of course picking the right rookie is the key factor.
Click to expand...
Sal went further and broke down some of the things you need to look at to help you pick the rookie WR that may break out. Notice #4......the QB's are not exactly a HOF....

let’s look at some factors that may help one find a rookie gem on draft day.
  1. Opportunity: Obviously a rookie needs to receive significant time on the field as a prerequisite for putting up stats that lead to fantasy points. A young wide receiver that is going to sit behind veterans will not help your squad. There’s no need to really explore this factor much further, since it’s quite apparent all who appear on the list above must have received an opportunity to see playing time as first year players due to either superior talent or injury to a teammate.
  2. Size: There are virtually no mighty mites on this list with Lee Evans being the shortest player at 5’10” and Torry Holt being the lightest player at 190 pounds. In fact all but four of these successful rookies are at least six feet tall (and twelve are 6’2” or taller) and all but five are at least 200 pounds. Even more compelling is that three of the top four most successful rookie wide receivers of the last ten years - all of which had “stud” fantasy seasons - are 6’4” tall (Randy Moss, Marques Colston and Michael Clayton) and while Anquan Boldin is only 6’1” he weighs in at a sturdy 217 pounds. So it seems, contrary to what some of your girlfriends may say politely, size DOES matter (at least when it comes to evaluating successful rookie wide receivers).
  3. Draft Position: All but three wide receivers on the above list were drafted in the first two rounds of their respective NFL drafts with two of those remaining three, Darrell Jackson and Chris Henry, only falling to round three. Only Marques Colston was a second day pick (amazingly he lasted until round seven). Looking further, 12 of the 20 successful rookie wide receivers listed above were first round picks. One can assume draft position is an important determining factor for two reasons – really the two reasons that any player is a success – a combination of talent and opportunity. A first or second round draft pick should be more talented than a late round pick (in theory at least) and it logically follows that a player chosen with a premium pick will more likely be given an opportunity to play since they are talented, being paid well and in most cases likely chosen with a high pick because they were a need position for their new team.
  4. QB: These rookie producers must have all had Hall of Fame quarterbacks tossing the rock to them as young bucks right? Guess again. The following uninspiring QBs were behind most of these breakout rookie campaigns:
    • Jeff Blake
    • Josh McCown
    • Brian Griese
    • Tim Couch
    • Damon Huard/Brodie Croyle
    • Joey Harrington
    • Jay Fiedler
    • Kordell Stewart/Mike Tomczak
    • David Carr
    • Tony Banks
    • Trent Dilfer/Charlie Frye
    • Jon Kitna
The only better than average quarterbacks that were responsible for helping the wide receivers on the above list were Jake Delhomme, Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe, and Randall Cunningham and both Bledsoe and Cunningham were past their primes at the time. Does this mean that one should look for rookie wide receivers that are matched up with poor quarterbacks when attempting to guess which rookie wide receiver will be worth a spot on your redraft team? Of course not. However, it should tell you not to automatically dismiss a targeted rookie just because he will have a “no name” QB behind center.
Click to expand...
 
Interesting to note that while i feel Sal's premises is strong, there is one area that I think the last 2 years have proved wrong. His size criteria seems off base. Let's look at the additions to his 700 yds list over the last 2 years:

  • Percy Harvin - 790 - 6
  • Hakeem Nicks - 790 - 6
  • Jeremy Maclin - 773 - 4
  • Mike Wallace - 756 - 6
  • Kenny Britt - 701 - 3
  • Eddie Royal - 980 - 5
  • DeSean Jackson - 912 - 2
So in the last 2 years you can add another 7 names to the list.

Sal summarized you should look at the following:



  • Consider only the wide receivers drafted within the first three rounds last April
    Click to expand...
  • All 7 fit this
  • Choose receivers with above average size (height and weight taller than 6-0 and 190 lbs).
    Click to expand...
  • Only 4 of the 7 met this, and 3 of the 4 highest were the 3 who did not. This is the one I think can be tossed out, big or small, doesn't have a lot to do with it in my opinion. The others do.
  • Look for receivers who are said to have an opportunity to receive playing time
    Click to expand...
  • Only Mike Wallace was not walking into a situation in which he had a great shot at early playing time.
  • Don’t allow a team’s below average quarterback to dissuade you.
    Click to expand...
  • Again, agree here. The QB's of late seem to be better, but don't forget the list he has provided. Bad QB's can produce good rookie WR's.
 
Going to use this to take a fresh look at the rook wr's to see who may be the best canidates to break out of the gate fast.

Who do the Outlaws like to breat out as a rook?
Posted via Mobile Device
 
Shipley is my canidate for the type of guy who works harder then the rest at his craft. He will be a blessing for Palmer and Bengals. He is very strong with YAC.
 
Here is a qualifier I like more than the size factor: Played at a BCS school. Let's see how it holds:
The 7 in the last 2 years:
SEC - 2
ACC - 2
Big 12 - 1
Big East - 1
Pac-10 - 1
All 7 played at a major college.

Let's look at the list in the article, i am going to knock Edwards and Henry off since they did not qualify with 700 yds.

Non-BCS - 3 (Moss, Colston, T. Edwards)
ACC - 5
SEC - 3
Big East - 3
Big 10 - 2
Big 12 - 1
Pac-10 - 1

So out of the last 25, only 3 came from a non-bcs program. 2 of the 3 were drafted in rd 1, so if your going to look at one, logic holds true, 1st round is your best bet.

So I would say you are best to look for rookie WR's drafted in the 1st 3 rounds, from BCS programs, with a big playing time opportunity from the start, regardless of QB skill or size.

With that in mind, who may fit this description? Well 2 of my fav break out of no where guys (Gilyard and M Williams are shot down right away, both were taken in the 4th). Here are guys who fit the above:


  • Dez Bryant - 1st rd pick who will start as WR3 and if Roy Williams doesn't get his shit together could quickly move into the starting line-up.
  • Dem Thomas - 1st rounder who will be given an opportunity to win the starting job. Offense in college was very non-traditional, learning curve may be more like a non-BCS school receiver.
  • Golden Tate - 2nd rounder, playing time opportunity should be there with TJ the only starter who appears to be locked. Came from a pro offense so he should be able to pick up the offense.
  • Arrelious Benn - 2nd rounder, opportunity is there for sure, should start right away. Not coming off a great senior year, that concerns some.
  • Eric Decker - 3rd rounder, Denver needs WR's, but I don't see an immediate impact opportunity....could be wrong though.
  • Brandon LaFell - 3rd rounder who may find himself in the hunt for major playing time. Outside of SS, there is not an established WR2 in Carolina.
  • Damian Williams - 3rd rounder who finds himself on a team with limited options at WR. If he steps up he could see some time.
  • Jordan Shipley - 3rd rounder, will put him on, but he has a fight to get enough looks to make an immediate impact. Will start out competing for the #3 spot with Caldwell. COC and Bryant look entrenched as the 1/2.
Of this group, you are still looking at only 2-4 who will actually have an impact. So who will it be? My best guess:

  • Dez Bryant - Most skilled WR in this class, on a good offense, seems like a good mix. Should be able to make an impact.
  • Arrelious Benn - To be honest, fighting the urge to still like Mike Williams better. Even if Williams does buck the odds, Benn has the talent to excel as well. Fits each category very well.
  • Damien Williams - Britt has not impressed in OTA's and Tennessee has a big void at WR. Williams seems to fit the qualifiers very well and would fit the mold of what you are looking for in a break out rookie WR.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top