Rashard Mendenhall....anyone remember him?

[The Ram]

Coming out of college he has all the stats to make any team salivate. His senior year at Illinois and without a passing game to speak of (don't say Juice, just don't) Mendy only racked up 1681 yards and 17 tds on the ground and added...now check this: 318 yards and 2 tds through the air. That's sick.

He is 5'10 and weighs about 225....with speed.

So he could have gone to the Lions and been average but instead he is drafted by the NFL's standard bearer for a rushing attack: YOUR SUPERBOWL CHAMPION PITTSBURGH STEELERS!!! But unlike Smith, he suffers a freak injury derailing his rookie campaign. Now his name barely registers among fantasy football junkies. Out of sight, out of mind.

So consider last year his redshirt season. This is his second full year in the same offense. Most players find the game slows down for them as they understand their roles. The knock on him last year was that he was getting schooled in practice....against the best defense in the NFL. After a second year one would assume he would improve on pass protection and read and react recognition.

He has the tools to be an around back who plays on a run first team. He shares the backfield with Fast Willie Parker who, while he is a fan and team favorite, isn't the picture of durability otherwise the Rooney's (who tracked the guy since high school) would not allow the team to take a runningback in the first round since 89'.

So what are the thoughts on Mendenhall in 2009? Could he be the guy that comes out of "nowhere" and is the value pick of the draft even if he shares carries?

 

[Coachnorm]

A very nice analysis, Ram. This is a hard one to figure out. A big part of the picture is also what is the future of Fast Wille Parker? Mendy will be phased back in as the Backup RB but how quickly? Will he be just a guy that provides some relief for FWP or does he step up into Full Blown Running Back By Commtitte? The difference is only 30-40 touches between semi-useless handcuff and useful RBBC back.

 

[WesDawg]

I was pretty ecstatic when Pittsburgh snagged this guy in 2008's first round. He was right there neck and neck with J-Stew as the #2 RB prospect behind McFadden and was projected to go much higher. ESPN's default rankings only have him a handful of spots behind Parker amongst RB's, so if you were to try for a handcuff, it might cost you.
If I were a betting man, I'd project a similar situation to the DeAngelo Williams/J-Stew backfield in Carolina last year with regards to workload, not necessarily production. That would be a best-case scenario due to the presence of Mewelde Moore. Moore was signed to be a 3rd down guy and a contributor in the return game but had a handful of really nice games filling in when Mendy and FWP were both out.
If everyone's healthy, Parker's the clear cut alpha male, at least for 2009. I wouldn't pick Mendy in a redraft league until after I had an entire starting roster in place.

2 factors concern me with this talented guy. Prior to his injury, he had well-publicized fumbling issues in training camp and the preseason. If that doesn't get coached out of him, it will ensure he's in a RBBC for the foreseeable future. The other concern is he didn't get starter-type PT at Illinois until Pierre Thomas (Saints) left. They also ran a gimmicky-type spread option system with Juice Williams at QB that may've inflated his numbers slightly.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Nice assessment Wes. I have little to no faith in him and you have made me feel even more comfortable having him on my DO NOT DRAFT list.

 

[Runnik's Hambones]

I again would probably spend a high round pick on the guy. It would come down to taking Rashard or grabbing a rookie RB in later rounds.

 

[Deacon]

This is one that I think will have to play out on the field. With Pitts blocking schemes it is hard to say whether the speed of FWP or the braun of Mendy will be most effective.

I think it will be a classic RBBC with FWP getting the bulk but they may change if Mendy excels. Last year when they both got hurt Moore stepped in an was a beast for 3 or 4 games and he is about middle of the road between FWP and Mendy.

This one is a hard call to make.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

This one is a hard call to make.

I think it's pretty easy actually. Even though 2 games is not a good enough gauge of someones talent, Mendy did awful with his touches.

Then he sits on the sidelines and never hits pads until this offseason. There's only so much you can learn in a film room.

As far as I'm concerend, Mendy is a rookie who comes in behind FWP and Moore.

 

[WesDawg]

That's pretty fair, ER.

As a Steelers homer, I love this guy because along with Limas Sweed, I consider him an added bonus to this year's draft haul, almost as if he is indeed a rookie.

Now for the caveat. In an initial Dynasty draft, you'll need to bump his value up several rounds. Parker is older and not durable and Moore is not a 3-down back. Mendenhall "could" develop into a feature back (non-RBBC) if everything breaks right, and you may not want to be on the outside looking in if you can get him in a good value slot. He's got sizeable upside.

Like Deacon stated, he is one of the tougher calls to make this year. Classic boom-or-bust potential.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

There are sooooo many of these young RBs in the league though who have boom or bust potential.

You say that he has the capabilities to land in a situation that is not RBBC. I have to strongly dispute that. There are only a few of those situations left in the NFL and they are occupied by some of the best in the game.

College talent isn't enough to put him on my radar. I think there are other young RBs in his same ADP range in both re-draft and dynasty who have much less bust potential.

 

[WesDawg]

Fair points, again.

So in an initial Dynasty draft, who's worth more (long-term) in your mind, Mendenhall or Beanie Wells?

Show your work. LOL

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Fair points, again.

So in an initial Dynasty draft, who's worth more (long-term) in your mind, Mendenhall or Beanie Wells?

Show your work. LOL

I'm not going to debate who was a better player in college, because let's face it, college success means shit to NFL success.

I would say that Beanie is a more injury prone player, but after last year and Mendy going down, I'd say it's about even.

We've seen Mendy on the field, even if for a few games, and he didn't show shit. Yes it takes time to develop, so I won't hold it against him.

BUT, look at a fellow rookie RB from last year, Felix Jones.

In the same amount of carries that Mendy managed 50 yards on, Felix got 148 and 2 TDs. I realize you didn't ask me to compare Mendy to Felix, but it shows you what a rookie RB can accomplish in his 1st 20 carries at the NFL level.

The thing that makes me lean towards Beanie is his situation. He isn't behind a proven RB. He is sharing the field with Tim Hightower, not Willie Parker. The fact that he should have much more opportunity to score fantasy points in the here and now makes him much much more valuable.

What the future holds, no one knows.

 

[WesDawg]

Ok, so since you brought him into the fray, who do you pick first in an aforementioned initial Dynasty draft, Wells, mendenhall, or Wells?

3 very comparable guys, I would say.

 

[12gaugetimmy]

I've got this guy in 2 dynasty leagues, so I'm hopin like hell he's a boomer.
The inability of FWP to stay on the field, combined with Pittsburgh's offensive strategy bumped him up my boards. Plus the fact he will get to run against Cleveland twice a year.

 

[Mustang Jones]

I've got this guy in 2 dynasty leagues, so I'm hopin like hell he's a boomer.
The inability of FWP to stay on the field, combined with Pittsburgh's offensive strategy bumped him up my boards. Plus the fact he will get to run against Cleveland twice a year.

Hey Timmy! just shut up and relax
Mendy is a luxury.

god i hate Pitt

He didn't fit the program in his first year.

He's got two more years, easy. pick him up, hold on to him tight.

you've got nothing to lose.

god i hate pitt

 

[Mustang Jones]

I'm not going to debate who was a better player in college, because let's face it, college success means shit to NFL success.

ER

Here is where you show you're blind

We know that shit, dude.

It's the first thing we learned

the first thing.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3lKbMBab18"]YouTube - The Graduate (1967) - "Mrs. Robinson, you're trying to seduce me. Aren't you?"[/ame]

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

Ok, so since you brought him into the fray, who do you pick first in an aforementioned initial Dynasty draft, Wells, mendenhall, or Wells?

3 very comparable guys, I would say.

I'm guessing you meant Jones, Wells, or Mendenhall.

I think I would have them ranked Jones, Wells, Mendenhall.

I would probably feel the most comfortable with Jones because we've seen what he can do with the ball in his hands, even for a small portion of carries.

Wells would be close behind him based on his better situation, but I don't think he would quite be in the same tier.

Mendy would also fail to be in the same tier as Wells.

Maybe I'm just not giving this guy enough credit.

 

[Phicinfan]

I'm guessing you meant Jones, Wells, or Mendenhall.

I think I would have them ranked Jones, Wells, Mendenhall.

I would probably feel the most comfortable with Jones because we've seen what he can do with the ball in his hands, even for a small portion of carries.

Wells would be close behind him based on his better situation, but I don't think he would quite be in the same tier.

Mendy would also fail to be in the same tier as Wells.

Maybe I'm just not giving this guy enough credit.

I am going to disagree here.

First, Mendenhall is a better choice in my opinion due to the situation. Pittsburgh will win, will run and will be successful. Yes they have FWP...but as pointed out above...he can't seem to stay on the field. So Mendenhall will get his chance. I am not, nor ever will be a Mewelde Moore fan...so I think his value tanks with Mendenhall back and healthy.

Wells has a chance to be good, but in a passing first offense, with a bad O-line...I don't know that he will ever be a stud rb.

I love Jones...but he is a 3rd down, change of pace back. In Dallas he will get his chances...but if you are not in ppr....his value is useless to you as it will once again be the Barber show...and if Barber gets hurt...the Choice show.

So I would rate them Mendenhall, Wells then Felix Jones.

 

[Phicinfan]

Oh and to answer Ram's initial question.....

I am a big fan of snagging best talent available when i can. I tend to draft near the end of the first round...so I target stud Wrs first, and look to get Rbs later. So I will be looking at FWP in the 4th or 5th...and trying to grab Mendenhall later as a much needed handcuff.

 

[Miller]

Oh and to answer Ram's initial question.....

I am a big fan of snagging best talent available when i can. I tend to draft near the end of the first round...so I target stud Wrs first, and look to get Rbs later. So I will be looking at FWP in the 4th or 5th...and trying to grab Mendenhall later as a much needed handcuff.

Is this going to be a cost effective handcuff situation though? Right now I'd say yes with Mendy's ADP currently in the 9th round, but keep an eye on this, i could easily see this jumping to the 7th or so as the summer wears on. If he does that would be a 5th and 7th for basically one spot. Doable, but a little pricey...will say though as effective as their running game is that this may be something I keep an eye on if I go WR heavy early on.

 

[ExperiencedRookie]

This is one that I think will have to play out on the field. With Pitts blocking schemes it is hard to say whether the speed of FWP or the braun of Mendy will be most effective.

I think it will be a classic RBBC with FWP getting the bulk but they may change if Mendy excels. Last year when they both got hurt Moore stepped in an was a beast for 3 or 4 games and he is about middle of the road between FWP and Mendy.

This one is a hard call to make.

What the crap? Seriously. What the crap?

You're talking all kinds of smack on Felix Jones, but you're on the fence about Mendy?

Seriously??

I was thinking about this thread and the Felix thread, and I had to come back to see if Deacon or Cooley posted here, and what they said.

Then I stumble on this post.

So a guy with 200+ yards and 3 TDs is useless, or virtually useless, or basically useless, or whatever the crap, but you're unsure on Mendy.

I'm confused.:headscratch: