Phic's attempt at a mock draft

[Phicinfan]

Okay, between all the reading I have done, and following all the info on players and team needs. I think I am ready to take a shot at this.

I will do this in sections, and feel free to blow me up, or critique or whatever as you see fit.

Okay, there are 32 teams, so lets go in increments of 10.

1 - Carolina - I don't buy the Qb push. Newton may be something special, he may be a bust. Gabbert may be safe, but I don't know he will be a long term solution. I do know they have a former DC as HC, and the defense is in dire, dire need. Marcel Dareus DT Alabama is the pick here.

2 - Denver - Again, I don't buy the Qb hype, I think Elway is trying to gain heat for teams to trade up. But the cost is way, way too high. Defense is a dire need again. If Dareus was there, he would be the pick. So to me this is either a top rush DE or Cb. With the money just spent at Cb, I think rush end is the need. However, my pick will surprise some. I am going with Robert Quinn DE NC. To me he has the most potential to be the big rush end.

3 - Buffalo - Well, this is the best world here right? Yep, cause Buffalo doesn't want to go Qb this early. They need defensive help more. They can live with Fitzgerald, and take a QB later to develop. So they will field offers from other teams. But ...with the fact both are still on the board, they won't get a taker. Von Miller OLB Texas A&M is the pick here.

4- Cincinnati - Well what you know about that. Cincy has had the best thing happen to them, they have their choice of their top 4 needs - Newton or Gabbert for Qb, Peterson at Cb and A.J. Green at Wr. Choices abound. I am going against the grain here. The defense last year digressed. Why? Poor pressure on Qb, and poor Cb play due to injuries. The D Line has some young talent, so I think they address Cb. Patrick Peterson Cb LSU is the choice.

5- Arizona - Well Von Miller and Peterson are gone. Arizona will then decide the Qb option makes more sense and not try to trade for Kolb. Blaine Gabbert Qb Missouri is the choice here. Cam may be all that, but he may not, and having just had to ditch their last major draft bust at Qb, means they go the safer route this year.

6 - Cleveland - They are jumping up and down in Cleveland. They have dire needs on Def, and a whole bunch of key players at DE and DT are there. But guess what, this is Mike Holmgren now running the draft, and he needs to support his new young Qb. So they go and fix the other dire need, and get A.J. Green Wr Georgia to help out the youngster.

7 - San Francisco - Trade to Washington - Well this sucks. They can't get the top Cb, a need. They don't want the next Qb there, as they run WC and need accuracy. So what do they do. Do they reach at Cb and take Prince? Or...do they go DT which is another need. Or could they trade down...to say Minnesota or Washington and pick later. This is my first trade call. I think Washington wants to make a splash. They could get Newton here, and try to build him up as the next John Elway for Shannahan(another major fail by the way now for Washington.....). So Washington moves up two slots and takes Cam Newton Qb Auburn.

8 - Tennessee - Well, no Qb here. No way Mallett or Locker or whoever you like goes this friggen high. So Tennessee finds the DT they desperately need and take Nick Fairley DT Auburn.

9 - Dallas - This is a very tough call. Dallas needs a solid DE, and OT needs help. As much as I hate to say it, they have to fix the O-line or Romo will simply get killed. I have to go OT here and say Tyron Smith OT USC will be the choice.

10 - San Francisco f/trade with Washington - Okay, they got some pick value, and now can address a key need at Cb. Prince Amukamara Cb Nebraska will be a great fit and a solid piece for San Fran.

Since I am on a roll, lets keep going some.

11 - Houston - Defense has to be the direction here. Key need at OLB, and DL. With the decision to keep DL as is, I think you need to look at OLB or a guy who can go and free up the talent you have. So to me this comes down to Bowers or Ayers. I am going to go against the grain here and give them Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA. He is a true OLB and will get to the ball and make plays. Which they direly need.

12 - Minnesota - Well, they won't get the much needed Qb. So they can now look at another area of need. With the DT position greatly weakened due to the finally allowed suspensions from the star caps case. I think DL is a key need. You have a top player that has been dropping down, and I think Minny takes the value pick. DE Da'Quan Bowers Clemson is the choice here.

13- Detroit - CB isn't an option now. Trade down really isn't either, as the key talent is taken that folks would trade up for. So its time to address the OL for Detroit. Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College is the choice here.

14- St. Louis - Okay, their two favorite picks are here. Julio Jones a solid talented Wr is there, as is Corey Liuget DT is also there. Both are key needs. But they invested huge money in Bradford, and they need to get a more reliable reciever for him. I go Julio Jones Wr Alabama for this budding offense. Plus this draft is darn deep at DL, so options should be there later to get needed DT.

15 - Miami - To me, this comes down to two choices. Rb or OL. Both there current Rbs are FAs and I don't see them pushing to bring either back. So I think they go Rb. But guess what...it ain't the Rb most feel it will be. Yes, they could trade down and get this guy probably, but who would trade up and for what? Nope, I say this will be Mike Leshoure Rb Illinois for Miami here.

16 - Jacksonville - Defense is needed here. Qb pressure is needed here. Direly. So you have to take the top DE that can get pressure on the Qb. With this kid, and if Kampman comes back, they should be solid on DL. J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin is a solid fit here.

Okay, that is halfway. I will take a break here and see what folks think.

 

[Arctic Dawgs]

Nicely done

:clap:

1 point about Clev. Holmgren is from the "Walsh tree", where you only take WRs after all other team needs are met. However he did draft DJax and KRob quite early while in Seattle

 

[Fire]

Nice, Phic. I appreciate the effort put into this, and in no way will I fault you for any of your choices. The draft is unpredictable, and it is nice to see what decision you think each war room will make.

 

[Cerberus]

Very well done and really shows you put some serious thought into it. Picks 17-32 will be just as informative.

 

[Phicinfan]

Okay, between all the reading I have done, and following all the info on players and team needs. I think I am ready to take a shot at this.

I will do this in sections, and feel free to blow me up, or critique or whatever as you see fit.

Okay, there are 32 teams, so lets go in increments of 10.

1 - Carolina - I don't buy the Qb push. Newton may be something special, he may be a bust. Gabbert may be safe, but I don't know he will be a long term solution. I do know they have a former DC as HC, and the defense is in dire, dire need. Marcel Dareus DT Alabama is the pick here.

2 - Denver - Again, I don't buy the Qb hype, I think Elway is trying to gain heat for teams to trade up. But the cost is way, way too high. Defense is a dire need again. If Dareus was there, he would be the pick. So to me this is either a top rush DE or Cb. With the money just spent at Cb, I think rush end is the need. However, my pick will surprise some. I am going with Robert Quinn DE NC. To me he has the most potential to be the big rush end.

3 - Buffalo - Well, this is the best world here right? Yep, cause Buffalo doesn't want to go Qb this early. They need defensive help more. They can live with Fitzgerald, and take a QB later to develop. So they will field offers from other teams. But ...with the fact both are still on the board, they won't get a taker. Von Miller OLB Texas A&M is the pick here.

4- Cincinnati - Well what you know about that. Cincy has had the best thing happen to them, they have their choice of their top 4 needs - Newton or Gabbert for Qb, Peterson at Cb and A.J. Green at Wr. Choices abound. I am going against the grain here. The defense last year digressed. Why? Poor pressure on Qb, and poor Cb play due to injuries. The D Line has some young talent, so I think they address Cb. Patrick Peterson Cb LSU is the choice.

5- Arizona - Well Von Miller and Peterson are gone. Arizona will then decide the Qb option makes more sense and not try to trade for Kolb. Blaine Gabbert Qb Missouri is the choice here. Cam may be all that, but he may not, and having just had to ditch their last major draft bust at Qb, means they go the safer route this year.

6 - Cleveland - They are jumping up and down in Cleveland. They have dire needs on Def, and a whole bunch of key players at DE and DT are there. But guess what, this is Mike Holmgren now running the draft, and he needs to support his new young Qb. So they go and fix the other dire need, and get A.J. Green Wr Georgia to help out the youngster.

7 - San Francisco - Trade to Washington - Well this sucks. They can't get the top Cb, a need. They don't want the next Qb there, as they run WC and need accuracy. So what do they do. Do they reach at Cb and take Prince? Or...do they go DT which is another need. Or could they trade down...to say Minnesota or Washington and pick later. This is my first trade call. I think Washington wants to make a splash. They could get Newton here, and try to build him up as the next John Elway for Shannahan(another major fail by the way now for Washington.....). So Washington moves up two slots and takes Cam Newton Qb Auburn.

8 - Tennessee - Well, no Qb here. No way Mallett or Locker or whoever you like goes this friggen high. So Tennessee finds the DT they desperately need and take Nick Fairley DT Auburn.

9 - Dallas - This is a very tough call. Dallas needs a solid DE, and OT needs help. As much as I hate to say it, they have to fix the O-line or Romo will simply get killed. I have to go OT here and say Tyron Smith OT USC will be the choice.

10 - San Francisco f/trade with Washington - Okay, they got some pick value, and now can address a key need at Cb. Prince Amukamara Cb Nebraska will be a great fit and a solid piece for San Fran.

Since I am on a roll, lets keep going some.

11 - Houston - Defense has to be the direction here. Key need at OLB, and DL. With the decision to keep DL as is, I think you need to look at OLB or a guy who can go and free up the talent you have. So to me this comes down to Bowers or Ayers. I am going to go against the grain here and give them Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA. He is a true OLB and will get to the ball and make plays. Which they direly need.

12 - Minnesota - Well, they won't get the much needed Qb. So they can now look at another area of need. With the DT position greatly weakened due to the finally allowed suspensions from the star caps case. I think DL is a key need. You have a top player that has been dropping down, and I think Minny takes the value pick. DE Da'Quan Bowers Clemson is the choice here.

13- Detroit - CB isn't an option now. Trade down really isn't either, as the key talent is taken that folks would trade up for. So its time to address the OL for Detroit. Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College is the choice here.

14- St. Louis - Okay, their two favorite picks are here. Julio Jones a solid talented Wr is there, as is Corey Liuget DT is also there. Both are key needs. But they invested huge money in Bradford, and they need to get a more reliable reciever for him. I go Julio Jones Wr Alabama for this budding offense. Plus this draft is darn deep at DL, so options should be there later to get needed DT.

15 - Miami - To me, this comes down to two choices. Rb or OL. Both there current Rbs are FAs and I don't see them pushing to bring either back. So I think they go Rb. But guess what...it ain't the Rb most feel it will be. Yes, they could trade down and get this guy probably, but who would trade up and for what? Nope, I say this will be Mike Leshoure Rb Illinois for Miami here.

16 - Jacksonville - Defense is needed here. Qb pressure is needed here. Direly. So you have to take the top DE that can get pressure on the Qb. With this kid, and if Kampman comes back, they should be solid on DL. J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin is a solid fit here.

Okay, that is halfway. I will take a break here and see what folks think.

Okay, half way done. Lets see where we go now.

Pick #17 is up.

17 - New England(from Oakland) - OL is a dire need here. Yes, some youth on DL and LB is also needed, but with Mankins tagged again, and not happy, and with some other issues, I think you have to look O-line here.

I am of two schools of thought, take a young OT, and groom him at OG. So Solder is a choice. Or, take the guy with the most flexibility. That would be Pouncey.

I have to go Mike Pouncey C/G Florida - the kid is solid, can play center or G now for you, and I think eventually could move to Tackle if needed. Great value pick here for NE.

Pick #18 - San Diego - this is a tough one. Talent is there, but alot of it is at equal grading now. So they should get a solid player, but nothing spectacular in my opinion. Key needs for S.D is LB or De. English has been a disappointment. But I don't see a real stud OLB here. Ayers is the best OLB on the board, but he is gone now. So I will go Aldon Smith OLB/DE Missouri. They will hope he will be solid, or at least push English to be what they thought, and give solid depth.

19 - NY Giants - I am not going to sugar coat this. This is the same post I made for Dallas and will make for philly. OL is dire need. Let me put it this way DIRE. So, with Smith and Costanzo and Pouncey gone, I think this is where Nate Solder OT Colorado goes. Need is great, and the depth in this draft for DL allows Giants to wait a round or so to fix that issue.

20 - Tampa bay - Okay they need DE and OLB. Ayers is gone, Smith, Bowers, Miller and Watt are gone. However, there is one caveat out there. Talib is once again facing penalty. Is this the final straw? Add to that the fact that Barber is only signed for one more year....and I think Cb is much more a need. Plus with the draft deep in DL, I think Tampa will wait and grab the better value. Of the Cbs left, there is a lot of debate who is best. Jimmy Smith, Brandon Harris and Aaron Williams. All three have issues, all three were rated pretty equally. But lately one guy has stood out once you really study the film. I think Jimmy Smith Cb Colorado is a solid choice for Tampa. This kills me as I really want him to fall to Philly, but I just don't see it, not with the issues Tampa faces.

21 - Kansas City - three basic needs - DE/OLB to take pressure off of Tambi and more pressure on Qb, DT or more importantly NT to hold up middle of line for the run and OT. I see three basic talent available and all would be solid here - they are Kerrigan from Purdue, Liuget DT Illinois and Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin. Quite honestly I think they have a hit with either. But to me this team knows its defense still needs work. So I am going against the grain here, and taking Corey Liuget DT Illinois to fill a much, much needed hole for Kansas city. They really need to fix the DT spot and be able to better stop the run than last year. Plus this is a great value pick as I have seen this guy up in the top half of the draft going to St. Louis.

22 - Indianapolis - Indy has had issues on the DL and OL for a while. They blew last years pick taking the small DE in Hughes. This year, with the push to make Manning the highest paid Qb, they finally address the O-line which is much needed. Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin is the obvious pick here.

23 - Philadelphia - Well, right now Andy Reid is bald. Or more bald. The two players they desperately wanted are gone. Carimi and Smith are gone. However, if this were to happen, I could see a couple of scenarios. First that Philly moves up to take either Cb or OT. But Andy doesn't trade up much, he is much better at trading down. Getting the extra picks and then manuevering them for picks in later years. But that won't happen here. Due to the instability, and questionable talent, I think Andy gets the Cb they desperately need for his new DC that was a OL coach. Brendan Harris Cb Miami is the pick here. He has ability to go man to man, and has speed to recover.

24 - New Orleans - Will Bush be back? Is P.T. Cruiser the answer? Is Ivory? So far only one Rb has fallen in this draft, and it was a shocker. Ingram sitting there has to make the Saints wonder. But I don't see it. They would not have spent the $ if they planned to grab a Rb in early rounds. No, I think they can wait and maybe snag a back later. I think they look to go DE or OLB to make the defense solid again. This is the perfect place for Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue to go since he has slipped down here. Great motor, drive to Qb and will help raise the pressure to take pressure off their Dbs.

25 - Seattle - Gotta go Qb right? Just have to. No, you don't. Why? Cause ain't no Qb with value in the eyes of the NFL here. Locker is crap. Mallett deserves to go here, but he does not fit what Seattle wants to do. So instead I think they invest on the O-line, just incase they have to pay through the nose to keep Hass. So to me this is Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State. He will move to RT, allow Okung to move to LT and they have there bookends for a long,long time.
Now, what about Qb you say? My guess is, once the 2nd tier Qb run starts, which is should when Carolina comes near the clock, look for teams to trade up into the 2nd half of the first or early second to try and snipe who they want. Great for Buffalo, who has Fitz and can wait some.

26 - Baltimore - needs help on defense. But the biggest need is at Cb. Pure and simple. Only one Cb left rates a first round ranking. Aaron Williams Cb Texas is it. Then they can focus on Lb and other needs later.

27 - Atlanta - Here is where you can start to see possible trades up. Atlanta has a few needs, but all could be met by moving down some as well. So a trade here by Cincy or Tennesee or San Fran who got extra picks in my trade in the first could happen. But it won't. Atlanta needs help on the Dline. They need to get pressure on the opponents Qb. So here is a great spot to get a steal. Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple is a great fit here. He can play DE, and potentially could move to DT if they go 4-3. Has incredible first step and is tenacious after the Qb. I know Jordan is still there, but I like this guy much, much better. So do alot of NFL scouts.

28 - New England - Patriots are on the clock, and a top value has dropped into their lap. What a great world this is. Not much fan fare but Cameron Jordan DE California is the pick here.

29 - Chicago Bears - trade to San Francisco - Bears have some play here. They have needs at DE, DT and OL. The top OTs are gone. Top DEs are gone. DT has some talent, but not rated that high. OG has one or two canidates here. But is this where we see another trade? We have the following teams still needing Qb help - Carolina, Cincinnati, Buffalo, San Fran and Tennesee. Of all of those, San Fran and Tennessee need to worry, as Carolina and cincy won't trade up, and i am not sure Buffalo will either, since they are sitting pretty in early 2nd round. So you have to ask, is there value here? Yes. San Fran made a great trade in my mock to trade down and get extra picks. So they can afford to move up, back into the first to get a young Qb to groom. Now who is it? It should be Ryan Mallett, but it won't be. Look for San Fran to take the "safe" pick and go Jake Locker Qb Washington. They will regret it, but maybe Harbaugh can turn him into something dunno:

30 - N.Y. Jets - its the Jets, so it has to be defense right? Yep. Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa is a great fit here. He drops due to his health issues ( Erbs palsey) but he has great motor and can add defensive pressure to an already solid defense.

31 - Pittsburgh - OL, pure and simple they need OL help. They are pissed that Pouncey and Sherrod are gone. But there is still hope. Danny Watkins G Baylor is a great fit here. He is nasty, solid in pass and rush, and hits a very key need.

32 - Green Bay - well here we are, the last pick of the first round. Will this be another trade up to snag a much needed Qb? Or will GB go for some one and keep the pick. I think they go need and take Cameron Heywood DE Ohio State. He will help fill the need at DE, and get more pressure on opponents Qb.

thats it for the first round.

 

[Coachnorm]

I am of two schools of thought, take a young OT, and groom him at OG. So Solder is a choice. Or, take the guy with the most flexibility. That would be Pouncey.

I have to go Mike Pouncey C/G Florida - the kid is solid, can play center or G now for you, and I think eventually could move to Tackle if needed. Great value pick here for NE.

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