Okay, I am not going to go through the process of doing a full first round mock draft. Why? Because it has been my experience that there will be one or two key moves (either a trade you didn't expect, or a player taken too early by someone) that totally changes the expectations.
So, with that in mind, I will post who I think will go, and what I think may happen to spike a normal draft.
Pick #1 Detroit - Matthew Stafford Qb Georgia
You all know how I feel, you build the lines, then look for the talent to run the team and survive. I am not even sold on Stafford, then again I was not sold on Matt Ryan and he worked out fine. Still, Detroit really needs to fix the O-line to make a real run at success. But the pressure to get the young Qb of the future, especially since they have no depth or talent now...will be too great.
Spike - They do the right thing and take Smith. Not a huge effect...but will change the middle of the draft...and make the Jets ecstatic.
Pick #2 St. Louis - Jason Smith OT Baylor
You just lost Pace, and the O-line is a mess, and your Qb is fragile. This is a no brainer. If the pick is not Smith, it will be Monroe.
Spike - They do the unthinkable, and go Stafford or Sanchez to get the future Qb they need, and trade away Bulger due to this inability to stay healthy. If this were to happen, the Jets would be in shock...and wonder what they did to piss off the drafting gods.
Pick #3 Kansas City - Aaron Curry Lb Wake Forest
To me if Stafford and Smith or Monroe are gone...you have two choices here. You go OT with the remaining one left, or you get the best Defender and for that matter best player in the draft. I think Pioli sets a precident here and takes the best player. Curry will make that defense really, really better.
Spike - Not a huge spike but they go Monroe instead. The only issue this would cause is who will deal up to take Curry who is shockingly going to fall now.
Pick #4 Seattle - Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
This right here is where the fun really starts. if Curry is here...the Seahawks start to have a party. The trade offers will come in hot and heavy. I don't think they take him though, as he is a better ILB than an OLB. I also don't think Crabtree is an option, since they just dropped major change on T.J. Houshmanzedah. So to me this is a DL pick or an OL pick. I think Monroe goes here.
Spike - They go Qb here. Holmgren is gone, and Hasselbeck was his guy. Plus Has still has the back concerns. Sanchez will definately be there....possibly Stafford as well. If they do go Qb here...and Stafford and Sanchez are gone you will see two things. You will see Cincy dance like madmen(they will get Monroe.....) and you will see NY Jets panic and make a desperate trade up to get Freeman, which would be a huge mistake.
Pick #5 Cleveland - Michael Crabtree Wr Texas Tech
Cleveland has dealt away there best possession receiver in Soldja Winslow. On top of that, if this is the pick, you will then see a trade to the NY Giants sending Edwards to them for pick #29. They could go D-line here going either Raji or Orakpo. If that were to happen a trade could still happen....if Britt is still there at #29, they could then make the trade with NY Giants. But in my mind they want to totally revamp this team...and they can do it by taking Crabtree, trading away Edwards and move on.
Spike 1 - They go Orakpo, who would meet a huge need on defense for them, and let Crabtree drop. If this happens....Oakland would be doing hand springs....so would Jacksonville.
Spike 2 - The Browns announce two trades. First is Edwards to NY Giants for Pick #29, second is Brady Quinn to either NY Jets for multiple picks, or San Fran or Denver for their first rounder and a later round pick. And then take the Qb left at this point either Sanchez or Stafford. This would ONLY happen if one of the top two Qbs are still there.
Spike 3 - Deal Brady Quinn to NY Jets for multiple picks, still take Crabtree and look to fix D-line later in this draft with the extra picks. This would probably happen if Stafford and Sanchez are gone.
Pick #6 Cincinnati - Andre Smith OT Alabama
Cincy needs O-line depth. They lost their starting ROT to FA to Philly, and the current LOT starter has knee issues. Even if they feel Collins or Whitworth fits at LOT, they still have the hole at ROT. Smith is huge, and could be a solid RT and possibly the LT of the future.
Spike 1 - Monroe is there and cincy happily dances to the beat to take him.
Spike 2 - Crabtree or Curry are there, and they take a trade down so they can still get Smith...and extra picks. This would be the smart thing to do though...so don't hold your breath.
Spike 3 - They shock everyone by taking Crabtree, which then allows them to trade COC to either NY Giants or the Philadelphia Eagles for a late first round pick. They could then address OT there with Britton or Oher or Beatty. This would really spike the draft as Arizona would be screwed by not getting huge picks for Boldin, and being stuck again with a disgruntled player. I would LOVE to see this one. It won't happen, but it would really make the draft fun.
Pick #7 Oakland - Jerry Maclin Wr Missouri
Lets face it, it is a need area. So is O-line, D-line and some other key areas. But with Qb situation now solid (Garcia signing), and a solid running game...they need some receiving talent to help the young Qb.
Spike 1 - They go Raji here to tighten up an already solid Def. No real issues on rest of draft, other than Jags get the Wr they truly need if Crabtree is gone.
Spike 2 - Trade down to Jets to allow the Jets to take Qb they have to get. Whether it is Freeman or Sanchez if still there. Good move for Oakland as they can still get Jerry at Jets pick, or OT possibility as well...and extra picks.
Pick #8 Jacksonville - B.J. Raji DT Boston College
This assumes both Crabtree and Maclin are gone. He is without a doubt the best DT in this draft, and will make the young DEs they took last year even better.
Spike 1 - One or both Wrs are there, and they get the much, much needed Wr they need.
Spike 2 - They need Wr, and trade down to Jets so that Qb can be taken by Jets and they can still get Wr later in Heyward - Bay or Britt or Nicks later at Jets pick.
Pick #9 Green Bay - Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas
Converting to a 3-4 defense and they need the tweener to do it. Would be a huge help in that transition.
Spike 1 - Take an OT here if Smith is still there. Their line was okay..but it is getting older. Smith would be a solid youth movement.
Spike 2 - Go Cb to fix that issue...so take Jenkins here.
Well that is pretty much the farthest I will go. San Fran will take the best that is left as they have multiple needs...or trade down if Qb is there for Jets to take.
So, with that in mind, I will post who I think will go, and what I think may happen to spike a normal draft.
Pick #1 Detroit - Matthew Stafford Qb Georgia
You all know how I feel, you build the lines, then look for the talent to run the team and survive. I am not even sold on Stafford, then again I was not sold on Matt Ryan and he worked out fine. Still, Detroit really needs to fix the O-line to make a real run at success. But the pressure to get the young Qb of the future, especially since they have no depth or talent now...will be too great.
Spike - They do the right thing and take Smith. Not a huge effect...but will change the middle of the draft...and make the Jets ecstatic.
Pick #2 St. Louis - Jason Smith OT Baylor
You just lost Pace, and the O-line is a mess, and your Qb is fragile. This is a no brainer. If the pick is not Smith, it will be Monroe.
Spike - They do the unthinkable, and go Stafford or Sanchez to get the future Qb they need, and trade away Bulger due to this inability to stay healthy. If this were to happen, the Jets would be in shock...and wonder what they did to piss off the drafting gods.
Pick #3 Kansas City - Aaron Curry Lb Wake Forest
To me if Stafford and Smith or Monroe are gone...you have two choices here. You go OT with the remaining one left, or you get the best Defender and for that matter best player in the draft. I think Pioli sets a precident here and takes the best player. Curry will make that defense really, really better.
Spike - Not a huge spike but they go Monroe instead. The only issue this would cause is who will deal up to take Curry who is shockingly going to fall now.
Pick #4 Seattle - Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
This right here is where the fun really starts. if Curry is here...the Seahawks start to have a party. The trade offers will come in hot and heavy. I don't think they take him though, as he is a better ILB than an OLB. I also don't think Crabtree is an option, since they just dropped major change on T.J. Houshmanzedah. So to me this is a DL pick or an OL pick. I think Monroe goes here.
Spike - They go Qb here. Holmgren is gone, and Hasselbeck was his guy. Plus Has still has the back concerns. Sanchez will definately be there....possibly Stafford as well. If they do go Qb here...and Stafford and Sanchez are gone you will see two things. You will see Cincy dance like madmen(they will get Monroe.....) and you will see NY Jets panic and make a desperate trade up to get Freeman, which would be a huge mistake.
Pick #5 Cleveland - Michael Crabtree Wr Texas Tech
Cleveland has dealt away there best possession receiver in Soldja Winslow. On top of that, if this is the pick, you will then see a trade to the NY Giants sending Edwards to them for pick #29. They could go D-line here going either Raji or Orakpo. If that were to happen a trade could still happen....if Britt is still there at #29, they could then make the trade with NY Giants. But in my mind they want to totally revamp this team...and they can do it by taking Crabtree, trading away Edwards and move on.
Spike 1 - They go Orakpo, who would meet a huge need on defense for them, and let Crabtree drop. If this happens....Oakland would be doing hand springs....so would Jacksonville.
Spike 2 - The Browns announce two trades. First is Edwards to NY Giants for Pick #29, second is Brady Quinn to either NY Jets for multiple picks, or San Fran or Denver for their first rounder and a later round pick. And then take the Qb left at this point either Sanchez or Stafford. This would ONLY happen if one of the top two Qbs are still there.
Spike 3 - Deal Brady Quinn to NY Jets for multiple picks, still take Crabtree and look to fix D-line later in this draft with the extra picks. This would probably happen if Stafford and Sanchez are gone.
Pick #6 Cincinnati - Andre Smith OT Alabama
Cincy needs O-line depth. They lost their starting ROT to FA to Philly, and the current LOT starter has knee issues. Even if they feel Collins or Whitworth fits at LOT, they still have the hole at ROT. Smith is huge, and could be a solid RT and possibly the LT of the future.
Spike 1 - Monroe is there and cincy happily dances to the beat to take him.
Spike 2 - Crabtree or Curry are there, and they take a trade down so they can still get Smith...and extra picks. This would be the smart thing to do though...so don't hold your breath.
Spike 3 - They shock everyone by taking Crabtree, which then allows them to trade COC to either NY Giants or the Philadelphia Eagles for a late first round pick. They could then address OT there with Britton or Oher or Beatty. This would really spike the draft as Arizona would be screwed by not getting huge picks for Boldin, and being stuck again with a disgruntled player. I would LOVE to see this one. It won't happen, but it would really make the draft fun.
Pick #7 Oakland - Jerry Maclin Wr Missouri
Lets face it, it is a need area. So is O-line, D-line and some other key areas. But with Qb situation now solid (Garcia signing), and a solid running game...they need some receiving talent to help the young Qb.
Spike 1 - They go Raji here to tighten up an already solid Def. No real issues on rest of draft, other than Jags get the Wr they truly need if Crabtree is gone.
Spike 2 - Trade down to Jets to allow the Jets to take Qb they have to get. Whether it is Freeman or Sanchez if still there. Good move for Oakland as they can still get Jerry at Jets pick, or OT possibility as well...and extra picks.
Pick #8 Jacksonville - B.J. Raji DT Boston College
This assumes both Crabtree and Maclin are gone. He is without a doubt the best DT in this draft, and will make the young DEs they took last year even better.
Spike 1 - One or both Wrs are there, and they get the much, much needed Wr they need.
Spike 2 - They need Wr, and trade down to Jets so that Qb can be taken by Jets and they can still get Wr later in Heyward - Bay or Britt or Nicks later at Jets pick.
Pick #9 Green Bay - Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas
Converting to a 3-4 defense and they need the tweener to do it. Would be a huge help in that transition.
Spike 1 - Take an OT here if Smith is still there. Their line was okay..but it is getting older. Smith would be a solid youth movement.
Spike 2 - Go Cb to fix that issue...so take Jenkins here.
Well that is pretty much the farthest I will go. San Fran will take the best that is left as they have multiple needs...or trade down if Qb is there for Jets to take.
