Arctic Dawgs
QB:
Donovan McNabb,
Matt Ryan
RB:
DeAngelo Williams,
Knowshon Moreno,
Ray Rice
WR:
Antonio Bryant,
Chris Henry,
Chris Chambers,
Derrick Mason
TE:
John Carlson,
Brent Celek
PK:
Mason Crosby
Overview:
We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back, and tight end is a plus for this team as well. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be the league favorite or very close to it. Players we particularly like on this team include Ray Rice, Donovan McNabb, and Knowshon Moreno. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.
QB Summary: Donovan McNabb is our #6 quarterback so he's a good start to a QB corps. We love Matt Ryan as a second quarterback. But even so, adding a third QB is advisable.
A quick note about the McNabb/Brent Celek hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.
RB Summary: Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Knowshon Moreno as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 3.4 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have DeAngelo Williams ranked at #8, Moreno ranked 21st, and Ray Rice ranked at #25.
As we mentioned earlier, the QB/receiver hookup tends to make your team a little more inconsistent. But that's not the case with the Rice/Derrick Mason pair you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more consistent if anything. See
this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
DeAngelo Williams is ranked #3 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first running back. Matt Waldman reasons, "Williams was one of my highest rated runners in my 2006 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and 2008 was his coming out party. When you average 5.5 ypc and score 25 times, you're not going to lose your spot atop the depth chart just because the team has an equally promising prospect (Jonathan Stewart) that Williams once was. I think dynasty rankings are best done two to three years out so after 2008, I find it difficult to downgrade Williams because Stewart is super-talented. Otherwise, I'm downgrading Williams' great talent. I expect another year of strong production before Carolina makes a new decision about their dynamic duo of backs."
WR Summary: We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Antonio Bryant is our 24th ranked WR, Chris Henry is #41, Chris Chambers is #44, and we have Derrick Mason 56th.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Chris Chambers as high as #32, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Jeff Pasquino's take: "Did I miss when Chris Chambers fell off the planet? It seems that everyone is overlooking him as a receiver for the Chargers. Vincent Jackson had a nice run last year, but Chambers has better talent and only needs to be healthy to be the top WR for San Diego. He has finished as a Top 25 WR in three of his nine career seasons but now is viewed as a risky pick due to injury. Considering you can grab him with a later fantasy selection in 2009 (ADP has him outside of Top 40 WRs), he represents good upside as a guy who has "been there, done that" three times over."
Derrick Mason is ranked #29 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Mark Wimer reasons, "Now that Derrick Mason has returned to the fold in Baltimore, he obviously becomes their primary receiver once again. That should mean around 80/1000/5 for Mason - making him a borderline fantasy WR2 and a solid option at WR3. He's even stronger in PPR leagues, with solid WR2 potential. "
TE Summary: Depth is a serious concern, but we do like your starting group, particularly Brent Celek as a second tight end. John Carlson is our #10 ranked tight end, and we have Celek at #21.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have John Carlson ranked as high as sixth, which would make him an above average first tight end. Matt Waldman defends his high ranking as follows: "Matt Hasselbeck is healthy and the receiving corps is returning to full strength and suddenly everyone is downgrading Carlson. Let's remember Hasselbeck and Carlson had a good connection last year and I'm not sold on the wide receiver corps staying healthy until they take some hits. Branch and Burleson have spent more time on the bench than on the field in the past few seasons and rookie Deon Butler is a good player, but the words "rookie" and "wide receiver" rarely equal great production. Carlson knows how to get open and catches the ball in traffic. Expect as good, if not better numbers in '09. "
Kicker Summary: With Mason Crosby, you should be above average at the position.
