Mocking The Mocks

cctekguy

cctekguy

Staff member
I didn't collect the most comprehensive data available but I rounded up random mock draft results from the past 3 years and compared them to actual fantasy numbers from the ensuing year.

Using the 12 first round picks from 3 consecutive years (36 picks total) and breaking the performance measurement into 4 categories (top 5 at position, top 10, top 15 and BUST)
I calculated the percentage of picks that over and under achieved.

Picks that resulted in top 5 production at their position: 27%

Top 10: 25%

Top 15: 20%

Bust: 28%

Pretty close to an even split between the categories.

If we look at a 2011 Mock draft (Bruno Boys edition) it looks like this:

A. Peterson
MJD
A. Foster
Chris Johnson
R. Mendenhal
R. White
J. Charles
M. Turner
L. McCoy
R. Rice
M. Vick
A. Rogers


Given that there will be 3 picks in each category, assign the above mock picks as you project them.

My picks are:

Top 5: Peterson, C. Johnson, Rogers.

Top 10: R. White, R. Rice, MJD

Top 15: A. Foster, R. Mendenhal, L. Mcoy

Bust: J. Charles, M. Turner, M. Vick

The bottom line in this exercise is that you know going in that there is a 25% chance that your first round pick will be a bust.
 
I give.....Why no responses to this post?

Yeah, it was thrown together in an hour but it targets the second most elusive aspect of fantasy..."Who will fail".

Obviously, the most elusive aspect is "Who Will Rise From Obscurity" but that aspect is completely out of the range of predictability.

Who will FAIL is no science but we at least have some data to work with.

If you know going into the draft that, of the 1st rounders, 3 will fail, 3 will under achieve, three will not make you look foolish and 3 will meet expectations then you can look objectively at your 1st round choices.

Rather than looking at mock drafts as a map to who you pick, look at it more as a map to who you will avoid or who you should look at selling high.

I'd dump Charles, Turner and Vick in a heartbeat if I could get their "Mock Draft" value. Foster would be another good sell high, IMO.

It's easier to pick a bad apple from a basket than it is to find a golden needle in a haystack.

...or maybe there are just too many scientists amongst us and not enough philosophers.
 
Hey Norm,

"Bust" implies complete waste of a pick in ANY round. In my sampling it meant "Any 1st round pick that finished worse than 15th in fantasy scoring at his position".

Don't lose your skittles over my choice of Charles as a bust. It has very little to do with him.

Charles is a good talent in a good situation with an improving offensive line...but that is the science of it.

The reality of it is that 3 of the aforementioned picks will fail and I whittled down probabilities and Charles was an odd man out.

Every player in the mock draft has earned their position there but there will be three that won't even come close to expectations.

Look at the list and tell me which 3 YOU think will bomb.
 
Injuries have to be considered, but they can't be predicted. Let me rephrase that. Injuries are going to occur, but to whom is unpredictable.

Running backs with recent heavy workloads are good candidates though.
 
cctekguy said:
I didn't collect the most comprehensive data available but I rounded up random mock draft results from the past 3 years and compared them to actual fantasy numbers from the ensuing year.

Using the 12 first round picks from 3 consecutive years (36 picks total) and breaking the performance measurement into 4 categories (top 5 at position, top 10, top 15 and BUST)
I calculated the percentage of picks that over and under achieved.

Picks that resulted in top 5 production at their position: 27%

Top 10: 25%

Top 15: 20%

Bust: 28%

Pretty close to an even split between the categories.

If we look at a 2011 Mock draft (Bruno Boys edition) it looks like this:

A. Peterson
MJD
A. Foster
Chris Johnson
R. Mendenhal
R. White
J. Charles
M. Turner
L. McCoy
R. Rice
M. Vick
A. Rogers


Given that there will be 3 picks in each category, assign the above mock picks as you project them.

My picks are:

Top 5: Peterson, C. Johnson, Rogers.

Top 10: R. White, R. Rice, MJD

Top 15: A. Foster, R. Mendenhal, L. Mcoy

Bust: J. Charles, M. Turner, M. Vick

The bottom line in this exercise is that you know going in that there is a 25% chance that your first round pick will be a bust.
Click to expand...

busts I expect:
Rice(injury to hip is a killer, and has to find a home first), Foster(Tate takes over eventually), Peterson(no Qb, means teams will take Peterson away or he fumbles it away). Turner(can't stay healthy).
 
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